In 2008, the Miami Dolphins took the AFC East by storm with a 10-game turnaround from ‘07.  Led by a former rival QB who felt disrespected, a new coach in Tony Sporano and an easy schedule, the Dolphins were the comeback kids of the NFL.  But in 2009, the return of Tom Brady will keep them from consecutive division titles:

 

New England Patriots: 13-3

Miami Dolphins: 10-6

New York Jets: 7-9

Buffalo Bills: 3-13

 

THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

There isn’t much to glean from the 2008 season that is statistically relevant to this year’s Pats.  We all know the ‘08 story – Brady went down in Week 1 with a very re-watchable knee injury, and FNG Matt Cassel took over, leading the squad to an 11-5 record.  The Patriots were the first team since the 1985 Broncos to miss the postseason with 11 wins, which puts another chip on the shoulder of Napoleonic coach Bill Belichick.  Cassel was then traded to Kansas City to become the new Scott Mitchell.

 

 

 

If I can point to any negative for the Patriots, it’s that everyone has access to the tape of the 2007 Super Bowl and should know that to beat New England, you must pummel Tom Brady.  But to everyone’s dismay, the Golden-Gal will be back throwing 7-yard slants to Wes Welker all @&%#ing day until their opponents get so annoyed that they leave Randy Moss wide open – just so Brady throws it to someone else.

 

It should be noted that the Pats saw two really old centerpieces of their defense retire, LB Teddy Bruschi and safety Rodney Harrison.  I didn’t like either of them; Bruschi was too wholesome, Harrison was a cheap-shot, and both played too well for their age.  But FB Kevin Faulk will make up for them in the Pats’ Geriatric Ward: in his 14^th NFL season he averaged 6.1 yards per carry and had 58 catches, and in his 15^th he’ll have Brady back.  New England better make sure that Rogaine and Viagra aren’t on the Banned-Substance list.

 

Rodney Harrison and Teddy Bruschi celebrate their retirement together.

 

THE MIAMI DOLPHINS

As previously stated, fate loved the Dolphins in 2008, and although it will do them no favors this year (they won’t have the AFC and NFC Wests to pick on), the Dolphins have a solid, if not almost-elite team.  Chad Pennington will continue his underrated, un-flashy performance if his running backs can continue theirs.  Last year, counter-culture icon Ricky Williams even provided clean urine for the entire season. 

 

Pennington was his typical safe, even-distribution-self with only 7 INT’s, and he led 5 different receivers to finish with 400-plus yards.  After those guys, the first 3 tailbacks on the depth chart each had more than 200 yards receiving, and the balance proved valuable late, when Miami won 9 of their last 10 games.  Pennington compiled nearly 3700 yards and finished 2^nd in the NFL with a 98 Passer Rating.

 

 

But the biggest surprise was on defense: Miami went from 30^th in points allowed in 2007 to 9^th in 2008.  The 120-point improvement on defense is almost as jaw-dropping as winning 10 more games. 

 

One guy to keep an eye on is tailback Lex Hilliard, a 2008 practice-squader from Montana.  He’s run very well in the preseason, and is bigger than both Williams and Brown at 5-11, 240.  Starting FB Lousaka Polite only has 5 pounds on him, so look for some solid production out of the kid from Kalispell if anyone gets hurt or visits Jamaica during the Bye week. 

 

 

 

THE NEW YORK JETS

It’s reasonable for one to expect a bigger hangover from the Brett Favre experiment, and perhaps I’m giving new coach Rex Ryan and his big-name rookies too much credit.  I’ve got them winning tough-ish road games in Houston and Tampa, which could be a stretch for Mark Sanchez. 

 

With Laveranues Coles leaving for Cincinnati, New York is thin at receiver.  Hence their flirtation with trading for headcase Brandon Marshall – Jerricho Cotchery is reliable, but Sanchez could use a bigger target.  Either way, he’ll lean on runners Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, with rookie Shonn Greene providing injury insurance.  But Sanchez strikes most observers as competent, and I think 7-9 is possible even for a team performing a major overhaul.

 

 

Vincent Chase Mark Sanchez, USC.

Rex Ryan wisely brought LB Bart Scott along from Baltimore to help on defense, and if I may get scientific for a moment, Ryan also brings impressive genetics.  He and his father Buddy Ryan have overseen some of the best defenses on record:  Buddy with the late-70’s Vikings and 1985 Bears, and Rex with the Ravens of late.  Rex’s little brother Rob also won a couple rings coaching the linebackers in New England from 2000-2003.  That’s a total of 4 NFL Championships, making the Ryan clan more prolific than the reigning NFL royalty, the Manning family.  Although I think Archie, Peyton and Eli have typically played much better with other kids than Rex and Rob’s old man ever did.

 

 

THE BUFFALO BILLS

The tougher schedule will treat no team worse than Buffalo, and it’s only a matter of time before Terrell Owens comes unglued.  Coach Dick Jauron isn’t off to a great start either, apparently deeming it wise to pink-slip offensive coordinator Turk Schonert about 10 days before the opener.  On defense, the Bills ranked 21^st in 2008, and have done virtually nothing to fix it except draft DE Aaron Maybin, who held out through all of training camp and is currently listed 3^rd on the depth chart.

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Ultimately, yawn-inducing QB Trent Edwards won’t be able to pacify both T.O and 2^nd-fiddle (but probably better) WR Lee Evans, which will lead to the clichéd turmoil that has followed Owens everywhere he’s played.  The nation’s collective eyes will roll when the media tries to get us all to gasp at T.O.’s predictable cry-babying, so maybe we should find some other divisive butthole to demonize in 2009.  

 

Jay Cutler, your table is ready.