MARQUEE MATCHUPS

PITTSBURGH at DENVER: Last week, Denver’s offense got snuffed for virtually the entire game vs. Baltimore, and the stout Bronco defense could only hold its ground until the 4th quarter.  The lone TD drive the Denver offense was able to muster was aided by two huge pass-interference penalties (the first was for 40 yards) and an offsides flag on Ed Reed on 4th-and-1.  Denver RB Knowshon Moreno capped his one-yard TD run that was set up by the 2nd P.I. flag by blowing a kiss to the crowd that was far more obnoxious than it sounds.  He finished with 39 yards on the day and 2.4 per carry on the TD drive.

Pittsburgh rode a 4-game win streak into their Bye last week, the last of which was to hand the Vikings their only loss.  Denver’s offense is a capable, efficient, competent unit, but Mike Tomlin and company will find a way to match the Raven’s 3-4 game plan that worked so well.  Steelers 27, Broncos 14.

DALLAS at PHILLY: Both these teams are nursing tooth-to-fist wounds after kicking the sh*t out of their opponents last week.  Dallas easily whipped Seattle 38-17, and then the Eagles whipped the Giants even slightly worse, 40-17.  Philly has won 4 of their last 5, but their opponent’s combined record during the stretch is 10-27.  AND their loss was to Oakland.

Dallas is also 4-1 in their last five games, but they’ve also feasted on a few creampuffs (Panthers, Chiefs, Seahawks), so I don’t know who to trust.  The Eagles came through for me big time last week, so I’ll stick with Don McNabb and Andy Reid being able to rattle Tony Romo.  Although then again, perhaps Jerrah took Romo to The Sizzler this week after beating the Falcons, and Tony will be feeling confident.  I’ll still take the Eagles, 28-24.

BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI: As impressive a year this has been for the Bengals, QB Carson Palmer has thrown for less yards than his opposing QB in 5 of their 7 games this season.  He was out-passed by Cleveland’s Derek Anderson in week 4.  This means that either Palmer kinda actually sucks, or the Cincy pass defense does.  Turns out it’s the defense.  Ranked 27th in passing D, the Bengals really struggle against a decent quarterback.

Joe Flacco is not among the QB’s who’ve excelled this season vs. the Bengals. In their first meeting he had easily his worst game of the year.  Which is why, after posting 100+ passer ratings in his last two games (actually twin 109.2’s), Flacco will exact revenge on the Bengals and lead the Ravens to a statement-making road win, 34-10 in Cincinnati.

HOUSTON at INDY: I think this has the potential to be the best game of the week, but its regionally-scented essence makes it mostly an AFC South thang.  The matchup will get a lot more attention after the game is over, because Houston will be handing the Colts their first loss, at home.  In fact, the Colts will be doing a lot of crashing to Earth in the next month.  After starting 7-0 on a schedule with a 17-33 combined record and an average opponents offensive ranking of almost 22, the Colts’ No. 1 ranked defense is the next NFL mirage to be exposed.

The Houston Texans offense ranks 6th in scoring, 1st in passing, and 1st in all-purpose return yards on special teams.  The Colts simply haven’t faced anything like Houston’s passing attack so far in 2009.  The best offense they’ve played to date is Miami’s, 13th overall – and Miami doesn’t even line up a quarterback or receivers.  All the Dolphins have is tight ends, guards, and tailbacks.  That’s it.  I like Houston in a game that isn’t as close as the score indicates: Texans 38, Colts 26.

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND: This game seems like an easy pick and I will eventually take the Patriots, but both of these teams’ current standings must be taken in the context of their last few games.  The last three teams the Dolphins have played are the Jets, the Saints, and the Jets again.  And while they’ve given up an average of 134 yards rushing, they beat the Jets both times to go 2-1 over a brutal 3-game stretch.  And against the Saints, they played a dominant game before the Saints adjusted offensively and commenced to ass-whoopin’.

The Patriots have outscored their last three opponents by a combined score of 111-27, but their last two games were against the Titans and the Bucs.  We all know that the Titans and the Bucs are absolutely terrible, but the New England Patriots did things to them that are still illegal in at least 3 Southern states, even between consenting adults.  There is too much firepower for Miami this week, just like when they played New Orleans.  Pats 29, Dolphins 17.

SAN DIEGO at NY GIANTS: The Giants and their fans are starting to panic.  3-game losing streak.  Eli Manning has gone from a 131.2 passer rating over the first 5 weeks to a 47.2 over the last three.  9 turnovers in the last three games by a formerly-disciplined offense.  The future isn’t looking bright either.  Coming up on the Giants’ sked are as follows: Chargers, Falcons, at Broncos, Dallas, Philadelphia, and two weeks later at Minnesota.  Anyone who says that the NFC East has one or both of the wildcard spots locked up already isn’t looking at schedules, and Philly ain’t got it easy either.  In this one, I’ll say San Diego, whose QB is averaging 290 yards a game, will send NY to it’s 4th straight loss.  Bolts 34, Giants 22.

ARIZONA at CHICAGO: Both these teams are clinging desperately to NFL relevance.  Both 4-3, Chicago is more desperate as they trail the idle 7-1 Minnesota Vikings while the Cardinals lead their own crappy division.  Both teams played lesser opponents last week at home.  The difference is that the Bears forced 5 turnovers and Arizona gave six away.

I had the pleasure of attending last week’s Bears-Browns game and as a result I remember very little of the actual football played in front of me (a genuine thanks to those who saw to that).  But what I do remember amounts to this: booing Chicago off the field after 3 straight drives inside Cleveland’s 5-yard line netted field goals; booing after a plethora of wimpy-natured screen, draw, bubble-screen, and up-the-gut handoffs led to a 27% 3rd-down conversion rate AGAINST THE CLEVELAND BROWNS; being pissed that I had to go take a leak at halftime and missing the Walter Payton tribute; Charles Tillman returning a diving interception for a TD near the end of the game; and then it gets hazier.

The Bears will win this one on defense and with an inspired passing performance, 29-13.

It’s already past my bedtime, so here’s a rundown of the games that won’t matter:

MISMATCHES

GREEN BAY at TAMPA BAY: See ya next week, Buccaneers.  You suck. Pack 33, TB 12.

CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS: I don’t care that the Panthers upset the Cardinals last week.  They’re garbage, and I don’t mean that in a bad way.  Most teams are garbage.  Saints 34, Panthers 19.

TENNESSEE at SAN FRANCISCO: The Titans got the proverbial monkey off of their proverbial backs, but it matters little.  The Niners will move into a tie for first with Arizona in the NFC West with a win.  SF 23, Tennessee 15.

D.C. TEAM at ATLANTA: The Falcons have shown that while they aren’t quite ready to evenly compete with the higher-shelf teams in the NFL, they’re more than happy to kick around the teams who range from swine to just treading water.  If you can achieve just a bit more, then you give Atlanta problems.  The Redsk*ns don’t achieve anything.  Fulkens 24, Washington 13.

UGLY AS SIN

KANSAS CITY at JACKSONVILLE: This game could possibly be -on a perfect day- a good, moderately entertaining game.  These teams are both very hit-or-miss, and if they both come ready to dominate each others mediocrity, it could be a competitive affair.  But it won’t be.  Jags by two field goals, 16-10.

DETROIT at SEATTLE: I’ve got things to do.  Latte-Drinking 90’s Rock Burnouts 22, Out of Work American Car Manufacturing Workers 15.

email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com