What a difference a week makes. FlyingPigskin.com went 15-1 on opening weekend, when very little was actually known about how the teams matched up. Now the conundrum: do we rely on what we saw, knowing that some teams are better – and some teams are worse – than they actually played? Stats can reveal only so much, but we’ll do our best:
OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY: Both of these teams played much better than expected against teams who would still be considered superior even if they had beaten them. Oakland played very physical against San Diego but couldn’t hang on in the last minute, and Kansas City stood up to a very physical Baltimore team and lost a respectable game without their expensive free-agent QB Matt Cassel. Cassel is still listed as questionable, but his knee has gotten better and he may play. Either way, Kansas City wins a tough divisional game against another lower-tier team also looking for respect: Chiefs, 24-17.
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE: Tennessee lost an odd game to Pittsburgh on the phony-opener last Thursday night – they held the Steelers to 36 yards rushing, a pathetic 1.6 per carry average. But they gave up 321 yards to Ben Roethlisberger, who while he is usually clutch and steady, isn’t typically this prolific against good defenses. In the end though, the score read like a lousy game in December, 13-10 Pittsburgh. So I don’t know what to think, but there’s no way Tennessee loses this game. Titans, 27-13.
NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS: I’m really tempted to pick the Jets to win this one, and here’s why: The Pats looked shaky last week against a Bills team who I think is no match for New York; the game is in the Meadowlands, which will be as hostile an environment the Pats will see all year; Rex Ryan will have no qualms with trying to blitz Tom Brady into submission; and the Pats’ defense looks to have taken a big step back from previous years. But I’m picking the Patriots, and here’s why: Mark Sanchez played lousy Houston last week and inflated his performance; Belichick and Brady will be ready for the Jets’ blitz packages; and although New England looked shaky, they shouldn’t have to throw 53 times again. Despite the enormous number of dropbacks, Brady completed 39 passes. Damn System-QB’s. Patriots 28, Jets 17.
CINCINNATI at GREEN BAY: Green Bay continues it’s early-season homestand versus non-playoff teams and wins again, without too much fuss. Yep, Cincy was the victim of a miracle last week against Denver, but at the time of the miracle they were winning by the score of 7-6. Carson Palmer should have had easy pickings against a bad Denver defense, instead he threw for less than 250 yards with 2 picks and no TD’s. Green Bay 30, Bengals 10.
ARIZONA at JACKSONVILLE: Oh how the mightier-than-they-should-have-been have fallen. Arizona looked moderately retarded against the Singletary-led 49ers with Kurt Warner back in interception form. The Jags lost a nail-biter at the Colts on Sunday with MJD being the only gem in a box of rocks. The defending NFC champs are hurting at WR with Steve Breaston and Anquan Boldin nursing injuries, but will be determined not to start in the cellar. Look for MJD and the Jaguars to roll early with Warner and company fighting for the late comeback win on the road. Arizona 23, Jacksonville 19.
MINNESOTA at DETROIT: I’ll give it to Detroit that they put up some points against New Orleans, but I don’t think the Saints even cared. Even when the Lions closed the score to 27-38 late in the third they weren’t any kind of threat. Drew Brees and 5 different receivers scored at will, and Adrian Peterson will do the same. Could be another record-breaker for the Purple Jesus, especially on that new, smooth, flat artificial surface. Plus rookie Matt Stafford faces a tough defense looking to hit someone. I wonder if he remembers Jared Allen vs. Green Bay and Houston last year… Vikings 31, Lions 13.
NEW ORLEANS at PHILADELPHIA: Donovan McNabb’s injury holds the key to this game, plain and simple. With him, the Eagles probably are still hard to pick to win, but it’s certainly possible. The fact that the Saints sacked Matt Stafford only once last week will encourage the Eagles to suit up McNabb; they don’t want to lose a home game and they will if Donovan sits. McNabb goes and is enough for the Eagles to squeak by, 24-21.
CAROLINA at ATLANTA: This game comes at a bad time for the Panthers, who lost their 2nd-string QB to injury after yanking Jake Delhomme (4 INT’s, fumble for a TD) last week, and are now forced to start him again and hope that he bounces back. Fat chance, and that’s not their only worry: they gave up 185 yards on the ground to Philly at home, and the last time they faced the Falcons’ Michael Turner he ran for 4 scores. Atlanta rolls, 37-7.
ST. LOUIS at WASHINGTON: Washington needs a win and St. Louis has probably packed it in already. The Rams have no one to watch on this team (at least the Lions have some offense): QB Marc Bulger might be okay but has no way to show it, and RB Steven Jackson is supposed to be good but I don’t know why. I nominate the Rams for contraction, and will continue to do so until they show that they give a crap about winning games. D.C. in a yawner, 17-6.
SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO: Seattle will get a taste of their own medicine, facing a rowdy and hostile Bay-Area crowd who is rabid for their tough-looking squad. Seattle will get out-punched and out-smarted, and will look like a team who played an opening cupcake, which they did. Despite shutting out St. Louis, the Seahawks had three turnovers at home. San Fran becomes everyone’s new favorite in a win that will be talked up as more meaningful than it is: 49ers 27, Seattle 14.
TAMPA BAY at BUFFALO: Tampa Bay isn’t getting much respect after losing to Dallas at home last week, but perhaps they deserve more. After all, they ran for 174 yards, Byron Leftwich threw for 276, they had no turnovers and won the time of possession. Their defense got shredded, but the Bills’ offense shouldn’t scare anyone too much. Their 24 points vs. New England were kind of a mirage, the defense scored one TD and the Bills’ offense was 4-10 on third down. Tampa Bay pulls the upset and Buffalo loses their 2nd straight by one point, 21-20.
WEEK 2 TOILET BOWL: CLEVELAND at DENVER: Do I really have to pick/talk about this game? Really? Only the hardcore will be watching this one; there isn’t too much worth tuning in for on the ol’ satellite dish. Denver wins because they’re at home, 13-7.
BALTIMORE at SAN DIEGO: The Chargers looked roughed up last week against Oakland, who shouldn’t have looked as good as they did. Princess Tomlinson wasted no time finding the injury report (ankle) and becoming San Diego’s most chiseled cheerleader. He’ll pass on the skirt though, and Phil Rivers will get punched in the mouth like he deserves (but not by his boyfriend Shawne Merriman). Ravens on the road, 24-14.
PITTSBURGH at CHICAGO: I do think Jay Cutler and Matt Forte will both have bounce-back games, and I do think there is potential for a letdown for the Steelers on the road. This is yet another huge game for the Bears, who will try to prove losing the perpetually over-valued Brian Urlacher isn’t a big deal. The Bears’ defensive line could be a tough match for Pittsburgh, who gave up 46 sacks last year. The Chicago defense as a whole only gave up 226 yards total, and Nate Vasher gave up 50 of them himself on the game-clinching TD. Lovie Smith desperately wants to avoid a potential Cutler-meltdown after an 0-2 start. All this being said, Pittsburgh still wins, because the Steelers are the Steelers and the Bears are the Bears. Final: 20-17, Black and Gold.
NY GIANTS at DALLAS: Wow, good Sunday-nighter as the Giants play their second divisional game already. The key will be the Giants’ young WR’s versus the Dallas secondary, and if the Cowboys can stop the NY running attack. They were helpless against Tampa Bay on the ground, but Tony Romo was able to strike quickly and stay ahead. These division games with two good teams usually split along who is at home, and so this will go. ‘Boys, 26-23.
MONDAY NIGHT
INDY at MIAMI: Both these teams looked shaky last week, not giving me a whole lot of confidence in either one. But Miami had no one who looked very good, and the Colts did, with Manning passing for 301 and Reggie Wayne hauling in 162 of them. Indy averaged a pretty pathetic 2.3 yards per rush, and should probably stop trying and just go shotgun on every play. Indy is a good team who started slow last year but hung in there, and the Dolphins could very well have been an aberration. Colts 24, Dolphins 10.
