Posts Tagged Brett Favre

Fantasy Football 2009: Week 2 Start ‘ems and Sit ‘ems

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Start ‘em!

Brandon Jacobs – RB New York Giants at Dallas – There’s two arguments here:  1 – Jacobs was a high enough pick that you’d start him anyway, or 2 – that maybe starting in Dallas isn’t the best option if you’re relatively deep.  I like the play against the Cowboys.  By relying on Jacobs and company in the rushing game, the Giants may be able to keep QB Tony Romo and the Cowboy offense off of the field.  Look for Brandon to net a few yards and scores.

Brett Favre - QB Minnesota Vikings at Detroit - Picking on Detroit’s secondary after last weeks routing by the Saints is not exactly a stretch, but the Lions should have 8 in the box for a good portion of the game – attempting to stave off Adrian Peterson’s rushing antics.  While he won’t put up 6 touchdowns, Brett should have a solid double-digit outing.

Fred Jackson - RB Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay – Jackson looked good last week filling in for Marshawn Lynch and shouldn’t disappoint this week against the Bucs.  Tampa Bay proved ineffective against Dallas last week and should lay down a few yards for Freddie.  Look for a score and low double-digits out of Jackson in Week 2.

Fred Jackson looks to continue rolling against the Bucs.

Fred Jackson looks to continue rolling against the Bucs.

Santonio Holmes - WR Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago – Santonio had an impressive stat line in Pittsburgh’s pass-happy debut last Thursday, eclipsing 130 yards and netting a score.  Though they won’t be nearly as aerial against the Bears (Roethlisberger can’t throw that much again, can he?), Holmes is still a major weapon against a less-than stable Bears’ defense.  He may not hit the century-mark, but he’ll score.

Cedric Benson – RB Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay – Benson slipped in most FF drafts though he probably shouldn’t have.  He fits in Cincy and they need him in Cincy.  While he won’t see 1,500 yards this season, he will see 20 carries a game and fairly likely, the end zone a few times.  Look for the Bengals to hand off early and attempt to slow down the Packers before they get sucked into a scrambling game of catch-up.  Benson’s line should almost mirror that of his against Denver.

Sit ‘em!

Philadelphia Eagles D/ST vs New Orleans – Some will argue that after last week’s performance, it’d be a crime to sit Philly’s D at any point this season.  They’d be wrong.  New Orleans QB Drew Brees came out firing for 6 touchdowns and back-up running back Mike Bell squeaked out 143 yards rushing in Week 1.  Although they played the Lions, they got a solid warm-up and feel good scrimmage under their belt and should be clicking on all cylinders.  If you’ve got the Eagles and no other options, cross your fingers for another punt return by DJax, but probability isn’t working in your favor.  They may play well, but they’ll give up some points this week.

Steve Slaton – RB Houston Texans at Tennessee – Slaton’s rough opener against the Jets was just a preview for this game.  Though the Titans may have lost DT Albert Haynesworth, their run D looked solid against the Steelers on opening night.  Tennessee will not be an easy opponent in the running game so unless Steve lights up as a receiver, his stat line should prove less-than-stellar.

Brady Quinn – QB Cleveland Browns at Denver – Brady wasn’t spectacular in his debut against Minnesota and frankly should have had better numbers in the second half while the Browns attempted to come back.  Denver’s secondary looked solid against Carson Palmer, so unless Cleveland has some play-makers step up, Quinn’s numbers will be mediocre at best.  He should be a back-up on your team if you’ve got him, but keep the mouse away from him this week.

Steve Smith – WR Carolina Panthers at Atlanta – Smith was once a stud in the fantasy football world, but that was before.  This is now and in the now, Jake Delhomme is garbage a flaming bag of poopy.  Unless ol’ Jake gets his act together, Smith’s value is diminished.  Though YAC is always the plus-side to Steve’s game, you can’t cross your fingers hoping for his 3 touches to turn into gold.  Leave him on the bench if you’ve got options and wait for Carolina to mature.

Steve Smith hopes that QB Jake Delhomme doesnt flake again in Week 2.

Steve Smith hopes that QB Jake Delhomme doesn't flake again in Week 2.

Carson Palmer – QB Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay – Palmer looks hobbled and didn’t perform well last week against Denver.  Given the Packers secondary (see Cutler’s performance last week) and the fact that the game is on the road, Week 2 doesn’t look any better for Carson.  If they’re smart, they’ll give Benson the ball.  If they’re successful, they’ll keep giving Benson the ball.  Though he may put up some yards, Palmer will throw a pick or two this week.  Mark my words.

Waiver Wire Pick Ups:

Mike Bell - RB New Orleans Saints – If he wasn’t picked up last week in your league then you’ve got a shot at winning it all because you’re playing against idiots.

Jamal Lewis – RB Cleveland Browns – The passing game behind Brady Quinn will be lackluster for some time and with injuries to the rest of the RB corps, he’s a solid back-up play.

Isaac Bruce – WR San Francisco 49ers - The immortal Bruce always seems to creep up the depth chart and could pay off during up-coming bye weeks.

Louis Murphy – WR Oakland Raiders – Murphy looked like the main option for QB JaMarcus Russell in the Raiders’ opener and shows some promise as a formidable optional play this season.

Byron Leftwich – QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Byron looks like he should be a consistent back-up option, especially if you were dumb enough to draft QB Jake Delhomme . . .

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VIKINGS NOTES: THE BRETT FAVRE CONSPIRACY

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I’m not into conspiracy theories, but when Brett Favre had his news conference yesterday, a mere 4 days before the Vikings’ season opener, he and the Vikings left a huge door open for speculation.  It’s a door I’m prepared to walk through and speculate as I do it.  

 

He decided it was time to string up the Jets for his late-season cliff-dive last year and play the victim card, basically saying that he pleaded to be benched after his biceps-tendon tear.  The Jets, to my surprise, acquiesced – saying that they in fact made a mistake and should have listened better to Favre’s complaints that he was too injured to play.

 

That doesn’t mean my theory is false – in fact, he also deliberately used the chance to doubt his own skills, planting the seeds of what could easily grow into his chance to finally step down from the NFL, carrying with him huge, cartoonish bags of cash with green dollar-signs on them.

 

The Smoking Man.  online photo, no source available 

The man behind Brett Favre going to Minnesota

 

The fact that he is telling the truth only adds to my theory, that this whole Favresota episode has been a publicity stunt from the beginning.  Perhaps it wasn’t hatched in a smoky back-room of Winter Park, but if Favre decides he can’t hack it after three games, what do the people who run (and profit from) the Vikings really care?  And what would Favre care, after earning a guaranteed $12,000,000 in about six weeks time?

 

If Brett starts this Sunday, he gets his money.  And the Minnesota Vikings have already more than covered his salary in ticket sales, jersey sales, ad revenue and corporate sponsorships since Favre came onboard.  Even the New York Times jumped into this theory a few weeks ago, but of course I can’t find the damn link.  Favre can only be expected to be a One-Year Wonder anyway, and the Vikings have a talented young nucleus under contract for years to come.  What happens after they get a stadium deal is irrelevant. 

 

Zygi Wilf.  online photo, no source available

Vikings owner Zygi Wilf

 

You still doubt me, and that’s fine.  But, if you were one of the guys running the Vikings and were trying to grow a new-stadium nest-egg, what better way to do it than this?  And when you called Favre to lure him to the Metrodome and he told you: “Aw shucks, Mr. Wilf, this old arm just can’t do it do it no more”, what would you say?  You’d say, “Brett, that matters none.  You coming here will make us both oodles of money, and I don’t even care if you make it to the Bye Week.”

 

And at that point, if you’re Brett (who has likely already told the Packers and their retirement/endorsement deal to kiss his Mississippi *ss), you say, “Well shucks, Mr. Wilf, that sounds like a heck of a deal.  I’ll be there!”

 

You get the idea.  I welcome challengers to this theory to comment below.

 

TACKED ON EDITORIAL:  BOBBY WADE DISMISSED FROM PURPLE, RADIO GUY PAUL ALLEN TO BLAME


Some say this isn’t a big deal – those people have already drunk that crap-tastic purple Kool-Aid (the stuff from the old Sunny-D commercial)

 

So let me get this straight, a guy who led your team in receptions for the last two seasons agrees to halve his current contract, and you decide to cut him.  Because these team-player types are easily found in the NFL.  Right.

 

Vikings radio announcer Paul Allen had no problem changing his tune today, going from “my favorite player ‘Wobby Bade’ (sic – he always loved that one), who single-handedly split the Bears’ locker room on MY show,” to turncoat into, “well, the writing was on the wall and he wasn’t very good in the red-zone. Percy Harvin needed time in the slot.  Wade was nowhere to be found in the pre-season.” (audio proof available here)  As if the NFL pre-season suddenly mattered. 

 

Paul Allen.  online photo, no source available

Used-Car Salesman Vikings radio-announcer Paul Allen

 


Way to show gratitude for a guy who carried your passing game for the last two seasons.  Especially after Wade foolishly went along with your concocted “Urlacher called Jay Cutler a (expletive deleted)” bit live on the radio, which even Sean Jensen, the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reporter who broke the story, pointedly pointed out to you on your own show. 

 

Bobby Wade.  online photo, no source available
 

 

As a Bears/Bobby Wade fan, I really hope Paul Allen feels like a true A-Hole, which he’s shown himself to be.  Not only did he get a good guy fired from his job, he then decided to rationalize the decision on the very radio show that got him fired.  That’s some loyalty.  Defines “Minnesota Nice”.  But Favre-forbid you cross Vikings’ management and their “Great Football Minds” decisions.  Never was there a greater bobo than Paul Allen.

 

Here’s to hoping Chicago picks him up and sticks him in the slot, where Jay Cutler makes him a legit receiver again, and the Bears pump their former WR for the Minnesota playbook.  Maybe it would be as good a story as a different former rival player going to the opposition out of spite…

 

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Some Reasoned, Rational, Unbiased Brett Favre Analysis

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Brett Favre gave the Minnesota Vikings and their fans exactly what they wanted to see Monday night in their 3rd preseason game in Houston.  Anyone outside Winter Park didn’t honestly know what to expect when Favre took the field against the Texans – it could have been magic, and it could have been miserable.  

 

It’s hard to argue against magic: Favre ended his night 13-18 for 142 yards with one TD and a QB rating of about 114.  I don’t think anyone could have asked for a better outcome than that; Vikings fans went from starting to waver with doubt about Favre taking over their talented team to fully cheering on the former hated division rival.  And why not?  Favre’s first outing of the season didn’t leave anyone with anything worth drawing conclusions from, playing only a couple of series and largely just trying not to look like a guy who had joined the team less than a week before, which he had.  The 2nd game was such an improvement that most Purple faithful either slept as peacefully as a man in a coffin or were insomniacs with excitement, with Randy Moss’ famous refrain of “Super Bowl, Homeboy” dancing through their heads.

 

 Brett Favre.  online photo, no source available

 

Here comes the objective analysis: there is no questioning that Favre played competent, experienced, and entertaining football with the steady hand of a veteran surrounded by genuinely talented skill-position players.  And this was without Bernard Berrian, the Vikings’ No. 1 receiver, who will undoubtedly add to the new-old QB’s arsenal of weapons this year when he returns to the lineup.  But if we’re going to look at this objectively, we all have to take off the Purple-tinted glasses for a moment.

 

The Houston Texans looked awful on defense outside of Mario Williams, who continues to look like he was deserving of the No. 1 pick a couple years back.  Adrian Peterson flat-out burned the entire unit on the first play from scrimmage, and while no one will say that should come as any surprise given Peterson’s ability, he did make it look really easy.  Not even the Chicago Bears or San Diego Chargers ever opened the door for AP quite like the Texans did on national TV last night.  More objectivity: Favre has NEVER played with a talent like this at tailback.  Few QB’s in the history of the NFL have had this luxury.  For opponents (and particularly for division rivals), this is a huge problem.

 

But once again, the other side of the coin says that with Peterson’s talents come Peterson’s shortcomings: at least twice last night AP showed he has made very little improvement on his pass-blocking skills, and don’t think for a millisecond that opposing teams aren’t going to exploit that armor-chink at every opportunity.  That kid has got to protect that rickety old man.  Combine that with his inability to bail Favre out as a pass-catching safety-valve, and Peterson could soon prove to be a liability despite what he brings to the table as a runner.  To keep the Super Bowl-train moving as a tailback, you’ve got to be a complete player.  Adrian Peterson showed on Monday night that a complete player he is not.  


Another apparent weakness would be the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings, Brad Childress.  I share the opinion of many pure-bred Vikings fans that Childress shouldn’t be coaching a Pop Warner team, let alone an actual NFL franchise.  And the man walked right into that description last night, calling two Wildcat formations featuring Percy Harvin.  If you have any real plans of utilizing the latest Macarena-style trend in the NFL this season, why in the world would you run not one but two plays with it before the season starts?  He also kicked the tires on a reverse to Harvin, giving every opponent on the schedule at least some film on the “brilliant trickery” Childress may want to deploy in 2009.  

 

Is all this enough to derail a potential Super Bowl run for Minnesota?  I don’t know, and I doubt it.  But when you combine these casual-observer pitfalls with the very real late-season breakdown of Brett Favre in 2008, it doesn’t exactly instill confidence in a skeptic like myself.  Here’s the skinny on the Favre-inator last season with the New York Football Jets:

 Brett Favre.  online photo, no source available

Much has been made of the December slump that Favre went through last year, but it started well before that.  After the Jets’ early-season Week 5 Bye, Favre threw 10 TD’s and 18 picks.  The late-season slump of course still has teeth; after an encouraging Week 12 win vs. the Titans (in which the Jets handed Tennessee its’ first loss of the year), Favre never broke a 62 QB rating and the J-E-T-S went 1-4 and missed the playoffs.  Say what you will about a gimpy rotator cuff, but who is to say that it doesn’t happen again this season?

 

And yes, the Vikings are more talented and have a better defense than that of the 2008 New Jersey Jets.  But Favre had an All-Pro tailback in Thomas Jones last year too, not to mention a very capable counter-punch in Leon Washington.  AP and Chester Taylor will likely prove to be an even better combo, but will Favre even last that long after getting lit up in the pocket as a result of blown protection?  

 

Favre will throw his share of picks – everyone is accepting that as a given.  But add to it Peterson’s penchant for fumbling, and after all the combined turnovers, where will this team stand?  Most likely still in the hunt for the division title, if not still winning it walking away.  But Favre has not shown himself to be capable of winning outdoors in the playoffs in recent years, and if the Vikings have to go on the road in the postseason, look for yet another early playoff exit, another misty-eyed press conference, and another off-season of pointless speculation and hand-wringing over whether or not Favre will finally, mercifully, hang ‘em up.

 

Brett Favre crying like a bitch.  Online photo, no source available

Brett Favre: “Waahh, I’m old!”


Look, Favre unquestionably represents an upgrade for Minnesota and gives them the best chance to win on any given night or afternoon.  And as a NFC North guru, I couldn’t ask for a better story – when was the last time all three ‘real teams’ in the division looked this good?  


But what are the chances, at 39 going on 70, that Favre has more good games this season than bad ones?  Not great.  And just how does one go about benching Brett Favre if he isn’t injured, but just ineffective?  Despite this, it was the right choice for Zygi Wilf, Brad Childress and Brett Favre to make in putting him in a purple uniform – Sage and T-Jack weren’t leading anyone to the Promised Land.  But please, slow that train to Miami down just a notch or two, okay?  Gracias, amigos.

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Fun With QB Stats

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A glance around the top 32 QB ratings from 2008 reveals some interesting facts, and here are the ones that I was able to spin into shaky conclusions before I ran out of ideas:

 

Philip Rivers had the top rating the league last year?? Great, now I’m going to have to give him begrudging respect, which I despise doing as much as I despise Rivers himself.  34 TD’s, 11 INT’s, 4000+ yards.  Can’t really argue with that too much.  What I can say in an effort to argue is that A.) Darren Sproles represents 5 of those TD’s, turning roughly a sixth of his 29 catches into scores.  I’m betting most of those were dumpoffs with which Sproles made plays himself.  Plus, we all know QB Ratings are garbage.  The rankings will tell you that the average performance of Shaun Hill and Seneca Wallace combined would be better than that of Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, Brett Favre, Kerry Collins and Ben Roethlisberger. 

Phil Rivers.  oline photo, no source available

 

Matt Cassel led the league in sacks taken?? Yep, 47 times last year he got dropped holding onto the ball.  Where was the so-called great protection I always complain about Tom Brady getting?  Brady got sacked a fraction of the times the previous year, 21 total in 2007.  So either the Pats’ line got decimated by injuries in 2008 (which I don’t remember and I’m too lazy to look up and see), or Cassel had problems holding onto the ball too long and didn’t fully grasp all of the intricacies of the offense, which is both likely and excusable for a backup who played very well.

Matt Cassel.  online photo, no soruce available 

Drew Brees and Jay Cutler threw the ball a lot in 08.  While neither quite got in the ballpark of the record 691 attempts set by Drew Bledsoe in 1994, Brees’ 635 and Cutler’s 616 are the only two over 600 attempts.  Donovan McNabb threw 571 times, and I remember watching an Eagles game late last year and not even seeing them run the ball at all.  I wonder how Brees and Cutler got through the season without their tendons popping loose. 

Drew Brees.  online photo, no source available
 

Speaking of Jay Cutler, there isn’t anyone more happy that Brett Favre is back than the Bears’ new quarterback.  That’s because Favre’s the only guy who would likely throw more picks than Cutler will.  Cutler had 18, and Favre had 22 in ‘08.  Vikings fans in support of Favre (and I think that’s the majority of them now) will ignore the fact that Favre led the league over Cutler while throwing almost a hundred fewer attempts.  And that Favre had a running game that Cutler would have killed for. 

 

The Jets had Thomas Jones and Leon Washington run for over 2000 yards and 20 TD’s.  Do you know who Denver’s leading rusher was last season?  Me neither – it was something named Peyton Hillis, who charged his way to 343 yards and 5 TD’s.  Cutler himself was close to that, running for 200 yards on his own two feet.  Matt Forte should take more than a little pressure off of Cutler, hopefully bringing that INT total down a couple notches. 

 

Peyton Hillis.  Online photo, no source available
Don’t recognize this guy? Me either.

 
 

What is possibly more impressive about both Brees and Cutler is that despite leading the league in attempts, they were each sacked less than once a game – Cutler with 11 and Brees with 13.  Both are underrated mobility-wise, and both have quick releases.  Ironically, Brees may provide the model that the Bears hope to use with Cutler, at least in part:  despite Brees throwing for over 5,000 yards, he had no 1,000-yard receiver.  Lance Moore came the closest at 928.  To be fair, New Orleans had two other receivers besides Moore with yardage in the 700’s, which is pretty damn good for 2nd and 3rd WR’s. 

 

But Cutler and Favre are the new guys in their division, and both will be playing with pretty good run games.  When you combine receptions and carries into total touches for the 2008 season, Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson aren’t that far off, and Forte actually scored 12 TD’s to AP’s 10.  What’s the major difference between the two that could help Chicago and hurt Minnesota?  Peterson’s 9 fumbles with 4 lost to Matt Forte’s 1 fumble, 1 lost.  Can you say ‘Turnover Ratio’?  


Adrian Peterson.  Online photo, no source available

Sorry, I just couldn’t go too long without taking cheap shots at the Purple Jesus.

 

 

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The Last Post About the NFC North for a While

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Favresota’s got me burned out on football already. I gotta wrap this up quick and move on, or I’ll be wishing this season to be over before it’s even started.

 

Here’s my 2009 NFC North predictions.  I shocked and dismayed myself:

Green Bay: 12-4
Chicago & Minnesota: 10-6
Detroit: 5-11

It’s all about the future in Detroit, and likely will be for a while. That’s why they pretty much aren’t included in the following accessible, ADD-friendly, loosely-organized bullet-points:

 

COMMON WINS/LOSSES:

• The NFC East will hand key home losses to Minnesota and Chicago. This won’t bode well for either teams’ chances for the postseason after losing potential tiebreakers to New York and Philadelphia.

 

• AFC North matchups should split evenly between losses to the Steelers and Ravens, and wins against the Bengals and Browns. Everyone beats up on Detroit and the NFC West this year, like usual.

Online photo, no source available

DOUBTABLE PICKS:

• Bears winning at Seattle, Week 3. I picked ‘em because they’ll be 0-2 and will be pissed or desperate or both, and the Seahawks, while I really know nothing about them, seem iffy. Seattle is always tough at home, but the Bears play them well.

 

• Minnesota winning at Arizona, Week 13: The Vikes beat up the Cardinals late in the season in the desert last year. They’re not likely to do it two years in a row. I picked Minnesota because Brett Favre and Tarvaris Jackson threw a combined 10 touchdowns against the Cards in 2008.

 

• Green Bay winning at Arizona, Week 17: The Cardinals could be finished, could be breathing at this point. Green Bay may have it wrapped up in the North and lay down to an Arizona team trying to break the Super-Bowl-loser stigma of missing the playoffs. But if these two teams either both need it or both don’t, the Pack will win.

online photo, no source available

TURNING POINTS:

• The Packers will take control with a big win over Dallas at home in Week 10, coming off an important road win in Tampa the week before. The Vikings and Bears both have much more losable road games in the NFC South; Chicago will make it two straight seasons losing in Atlanta, and the Metrodomers will get roughed up in Carolina in Week 15.

 

• Both Green Bay and Minnesota should be red-hot early. The Vikings should win their first five games and I’ve got GB starting a ridiculous 11-1. I know how it sounds, but take a look for yourself. I see one loss, in Minnesota, through Week 12. There’s three losses somewhere in the last 5 games, but it won’t matter by then.

 

• The Bears’ hard start could derail Jay Cutler’s first season in Chicago if tempers flare. They open on Monday Night in Green Bay, then follow with their home opener against Pittsburgh. Then there’s the toss-up in Seattle. They could be starting 0-3 and wanting to lynch their new QB before catching a gimme with Detroit. But if the three losses are close, well-played games they will hang in there and make it three teams in the division with 10+ victories.

 

ODDS OF ME MAKING IT TO WEEK 1 WITHOUT HURTING MYSELF OR OTHERS BECAUSE OF BRETT FAVRE:

50-50 at the moment.  Come on, the man isn’t John Lennon, he isn’t Jesus.  He’s not running from the police, so what’s with the helicopters?  He’s an old-ass quarterback who can’t let go with an ego that just sucks up all this exposure.  Good luck getting rid of him now after obnoxiously lavishing him with attention.  Sheesh.

 

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