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Fantasy Football Duds and Studs 2009 – Week 1

Sep 16

Posted by Bob Noyes in Fantasy Football | Comments off

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With the NFL season official now, the fantasy football scene has already exploded with some notable and less-than-worthy performances. Here’s a look a 2009 Week 1 Fantasy Football Duds and Studs:

Studs:

Drew Brees – QB New Orleans Saints – Brees lit up the <cough> Detroit secondary for 6 touchdown passes and over 350 yards.  Sure, the Lions went 0 and 16 last year.  Sure, the game was played in New Orleans.  All nay-saying aside, it doesn’t matter who you play: 6 touchdown passes is an amazing effort and should keep the Saints marching into Week 2.

Adrian Peterson – RB Minnesota Vikings – AP ran All Day over the Browns in Cleveland, netting 180 yards on 25 carries (7.2 yard average) for 3 scores.  Everyone expects solid games out of Peterson, but delivering gems like this on the road, particularly during the over-hyped debut of Number 4, is quite the feat.

Philadelphia Eagles D/ST – Not only did the Eagles defense only allow 10 points from the Panthers in Carolina, but they held them to a mere 169 total yards and forced 7 turnovers.  DE Victor Abiamiri returned a fumble early in the second quarter to put Philly up for good, while DJax (WR/PR DeSean Jackson) solidified their lead with an 85-yard punt return for a touchdown just 4 minutes later.  Kudos to the Eagles for a stud performance unlikely to be matched this season.

The Eagles forced 7 turnovers at Carolina on Sunday.

The Eagles forced 7 turnovers at Carolina on Sunday.

Joe Flacco – QB Baltimore Ravens – Flacco threw for a career-high 307 yards and 3 touchdowns against the lowly Chiefs in the Ravens home-opener on Sunday.  Kudos to the sophomore QB getting off on the right foot for the new season.

Thomas Jones – RB New York Jets – Jones was a performer most of last year in the world of fantasy football and didn’t disappoint in the Jets’ opener in Houston last weekend, racking up over 100 yards rushing and 2 scores in the second half of New York’s domination of the Texans.

Duds:

Jake Delhomme - QB Carolina Panthers – Oh, Jake.  Poor Jake.  Ol’ Jake was Munson-ed in Carolina on Sunday, throwing 4 picks and losing a fumble before being yanked from the game.  Sure, Carolina’s a running team, but with WR Steve Smith and a few years’ experience, you’d think he’d have something to offer.  Put him on waivers and go wash your hands if he was anywhere near your fantasy team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST – The new-look D looked awful at home against the Cowboys on Sunday, giving up over 462 yards and 34 points to Tony Romo and company.  Without a few late garbage scores from the Bucs offense, this one could have dismantled their pride.

Willie Parker – RB Pittsburgh Steelers – Fast Willie Parker wasn’t fast on Thursday’s season opener against the Tennessee Titans.  He wasn’t even mediocre.  He was pitiful – rushing for 19 yards on 13 carries.  The Steelers even lined up for a late 3rd and short play in the shotgun offense, rather than going with “Fast Willie” or his perennial back-up, Mewelde Moore.  If he can’t match up with the Bears, sans-LB Brian Urlacher in Week 2, I’d trade him for a back on a tandem rushing team (ie Bradshaw, etc.).

Braylon Edwards – WR Cleveland Browns – Braylon found the Dud list quite a bit last year and if Week 1 is any indication, this season may be another dismal outing for the once-promising Edwards.  Cleveland played catch-up for the entire second half of last week’s game hosting the Vikings, but managed to only find Edwards one time for a mere 12 yards.  Last year’s fantasy owners are offering condolences to this year’s suckers.

Steve Slaton – RB Houston Texans – A top-10 fantasy pick with promise.  That was the tag on Slaton.  How did he deliver to his fantasy fans in Week 1 hosting the Jets?  He rushed 9 times for 17 yards and lost a fumble.  Outside of a few receiving points, Steve let a lot of owners down this week.

Slaton was non-existent against the Jets in the Texans home opener.

Slaton was non-existent against the Jets in the Texans' home opener.

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10 THINGS I KNOW ABOUT WEEK 1

Sep 14

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Armchair QB | 2 Comments

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1.  Adrian Peterson put on a show for the ages. This was one to show your kids someday if you’re a real Vikings fan.  The man’s purple and gold jersey disappears when he breaks loose, and you’ve got no choice, no matter what team you pledge allegiance to, but to marvel at the creativity, brilliance, and sheer anger that AP used to produce 180 yards and three TD’s.  Brett Favre’s debut in a Minnesota uniform was far overshadowed by what could be the best run in Peterson’s career to date.

2. The proprietor of this here football-themed website told me he thought my shutout prediction of the Bills by New England was a stretch, and I scoffed.  He was right.  Buffalo damn near pulled off a huge upset moments ago.  New England squeaked out a mouse-fart’s margin of a victory against Buffalo, driving anyone who bet that the Pats would cover the spread into an ulcer or a nuthouse or both.

3.  Even though the Houston Texans made it really easy on him, Mark Sanchez did some really impressive things in his rookie debut. At least six huge plays for him came on 3rd down, and one came on 4th, showing that ice water pulses in the veins of the kid from USC.  He showed a quick release, surprising mobility, and accuracy that several starting QB’s should envy.  Combined with (as we predicted) an aggressive, active defense, the Jets look to be a surprise in 2009.

Mark Sanchez. online photo, no source available

4.  New Kansas City head coach Todd Haley got his first full-time position job with the Chicago Bears in 2000, and although he lost his opener versus Baltimore, his team put on a performance worthy of those Bears’ teams of old.  Big plays and scores by the defense and special teams fueled a close loss to a far superior Ravens team.  Brodie Croyle even got in on the act, tossing big throws late in the game to keep it close.  Joe Flacco eventually daggered them, but the Chiefs may be better than anyone thinks this year (FS Mike Brown also had 12 tackles, but that’s not necessarily a good thing given his injury history).

5.  The New York Giants had some throw-back performances against the Washington, D.C. football franchise.  Mario Manningham looked like the Michigan star he was with a 31-yard TD catch-and-run, and the D-Line had a resurgence reminiscent of their 2007 Super Bowl win.  Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora will keep abusing offensive lines (and spell checks).

6.  As impressive as Drew Brees was in his record-setting opening-day game with 6 TD passes, RB Mike Bell ran for 143 yards. But perhaps this proves that the Detroit Lions’ defense is still really, really terrible.

7.  The San Francisco 49ers looked like a team led by Mike Singletary. The Hall-of-Fame MLB kept his squad fighting for every yard and never losing hope against the defending NFC Champs.  I feel proud and stupid, as I wanted to pick them to win but couldn’t commit.  I predicted a better-than-expected performance from San Fran, but not a win.  I will choose more wisely in the future, and the rest of the league is on notice.

Mike Singletary. online photo, no source available

8.  Clinton Portis continues to be the engine driving Washington. Or more accurately, if he stalls, so do the R*dsk*ns.  He rushed for 62 yards on 15 carries, and 34 yards came on his first run from scrimmage.  Without a run game, QB Jason Campbell is not capable of carrying his team to a win against a quality opponent.

9.  There were the usual opening-week key injuries around the league:

-Brian Urlacher, Bears

-Anthony Gonzalez, Colts

-Donovan McNabb, Eagles

-Troy Polamalu, Steelers

-Hakeem Nicks, Giants

-Reggie Hayward, Jaguars

Here’s to a speedy recovery to all of these quality players.

10.  Of all the mistakes Jay Cutler made last night, the most overlooked one was his blowing the Bears’ final timeout on 4th and inches towards the end of the 3rd quarter.  I pondered this, thinking what could he possibly have seen from the Green Bay defense that made him reconsider the play call?  Isn’t this a fairly black-and-white situation?  Isn’t this play merely a comparison of these linemens’ testicle circumference?

Then I thought well, perhaps Chicago had some too-cute gimmick play called for the situation and Cutler saw that the Pack was prepared for it.  But even if that was the case, shouldn’t he have been equipped with the proper audible into a traditional 4th-and-inches playcall?  Someone, either Cutler of offensive coordinator Ron Turner screwed that up.  There were multiple other mistakes, both player and coaching-related, but few have drawn attention to this one, which burned the last clock-stop for Chicago and made their final drive much more difficult.  Perhaps I’ll have the wherewithal to revisit this game, but most likely I’ll just pretend it didn’t happen and pray that everything works out next week.

Who are the Bears playing?  The World-Champion Pittsburgh Steelers?  $%#@&*!!!!!

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NFC South 2009 Predictions

Sep 7

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Armchair QB | Comments off

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I’m beginning to doubt myself with my projections.  This one doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, but I call ‘em how I see ‘em:

 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: 11-5

ATLANTA FALCONS: 10-6

CAROLINA PANTHERS: 8-8

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: 4-12

 

THE SAINTS:

New Orleans was all offense and no defense last year, ranking first in almost every category with the ball, and 26th overall without it.  The imbalance resulted in an 8-8 record, disappointing for a team whose QB threw for 5,069 yards and 34 TD’s. 

Saints Cheerleaders. online photo, no source available 

Gratuitous cheerleader photo


The Saints employed a strange formula: while they were 1st overall in total offense they had no 1000-yard receiver or rusher.  I say this mainly to point out to my father that the Bears don’t need Devin Hester to be a prototypical No. 1 wideout to have a prolific offense.  The Dolphins used the same model, resulting in Drew Brees and Chad Pennington being the No.’s 1 and 2 quarterbacks in the NFL. 

 

The Saints overhauled their secondary in the off-season to remedy the defense, but signing Darren Sharper makes me question their judgment.  But somehow I see them improving by 3 victories with a harder schedule. 

 

 

THE FALCONS:

I’m much higher on the DirtyBirds than I am on the Ain’ts, but this is how it worked out.  Not only that, but Atlanta added HOF’er Tony Gonzalez to their offense, who is desperate for a title.

Matt Ryan. Online photo, no source available

 

Also their first 5 draft picks were on defense, showing likable coach Mike Smith’s commitment to improving an already 11-5 upstart squad. Michael Turner and Matt Ryan will make them a tough game on every opponent’s schedule, but road games in Foxboro, Dallas, and two in New York make it tough to duplicate last year’s success. 

 

I hereby promise today to make the Falcons my sleeper-cinderella-darkhorse-longshot playoff team.  The sky’s the limit for Atlanta, and by “the sky” I mean 10 wins and 2nd place in the division.

 

 

THE PANTHERS:

I’d like a show of hands of people who remember the Carolina Panthers winning 12 games last year.  Maybe a couple folks from Myrtle Beach?  How about Steve Smith racking up over 1,400 yards?  Me neither.

 

I do remember Carolina’s running game being excellent, and when I went to the interwebs to see the actual numbers, I was still surprised.  DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and a couple others ran for almost 2,500 yards and a total of 30 touchdowns.  Wow.  They also ranked 12th overall in defense, so how did Jake Delhomme throw more picks than TD’s last year? 

 

Maybe it’s because, contrary to popular belief, Jake Delhomme actually…sucks. 

Jake Delhomme. online photo, no source available
 

I point to perhaps the single-worst playoff performance by a quarterback ever – versus the Arizona Cardinals (not exactly a team known for suffocating, punishing defense), Jake the Fake threw five (5) interceptions and one score.  In his own stadium.  Maybe I’m desensitized by the 0.0’s put up in the past few years by Rex Grossman, but Delhomme’s 39.1 rating in that home playoff game doesn’t seem low enough for me.  Reality catches up with the Panthers this year.

 

On a lighter note, the Panthers do win the award for The Funniest Name in Training Camp – I was seriously dejected when Carolina cut ties with receiver Larry Beavers.  Here’s to hoping another team signs him off waivers.  I’ll buy the jersey. 

 

 Larry Beavers. online photo, no source available

The immortal Larry Beavers.  Godspeed, young man.  

 

THE BUCCANEERS

I’ll be honest, there isn’t much for me to like about Tampa Bay this year.  They took their winning record last year and decided that it was bad enough to cut three likable, albeit over the hill, veterans in Jeff Garcia (90.2 QB rating), Warrick Dunn, and Derrick Brooks. 

 

They hired head coach Raheem Morris…I guess he’s a good guy…(wide-eyed -shoulder-shrug in obliviousness) and traded for Kellen Winslow, who combines with Jerramy Stevens to make up the NFL’s All-D-Bag Tight End tandem. 

Raheem Morris. online photo, no source available 

Raheem Morris: “Hey, even I don’t like Jerramy Stevens.”


Derrick Ward is a bright-spot move for the Bucs, and for some reason I still am a Byron Leftwich fan.  I must have a soft spot for rocket-armed QB’s from Marshall.  Look for Ward, Cadillac Williams, and Earnest Graham to all get drafted in lots of fantasy drafts, and then never really do much.  Okay, probably not, but I’m not a fantasy guy.

 

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Fun With QB Stats

Aug 27

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Armchair QB | Comments off

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A glance around the top 32 QB ratings from 2008 reveals some interesting facts, and here are the ones that I was able to spin into shaky conclusions before I ran out of ideas:

 

Philip Rivers had the top rating the league last year?? Great, now I’m going to have to give him begrudging respect, which I despise doing as much as I despise Rivers himself.  34 TD’s, 11 INT’s, 4000+ yards.  Can’t really argue with that too much.  What I can say in an effort to argue is that A.) Darren Sproles represents 5 of those TD’s, turning roughly a sixth of his 29 catches into scores.  I’m betting most of those were dumpoffs with which Sproles made plays himself.  Plus, we all know QB Ratings are garbage.  The rankings will tell you that the average performance of Shaun Hill and Seneca Wallace combined would be better than that of Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, Brett Favre, Kerry Collins and Ben Roethlisberger. 

Phil Rivers. oline photo, no source available

 

Matt Cassel led the league in sacks taken?? Yep, 47 times last year he got dropped holding onto the ball.  Where was the so-called great protection I always complain about Tom Brady getting?  Brady got sacked a fraction of the times the previous year, 21 total in 2007.  So either the Pats’ line got decimated by injuries in 2008 (which I don’t remember and I’m too lazy to look up and see), or Cassel had problems holding onto the ball too long and didn’t fully grasp all of the intricacies of the offense, which is both likely and excusable for a backup who played very well.

Matt Cassel. online photo, no soruce available 

Drew Brees and Jay Cutler threw the ball a lot in 08.  While neither quite got in the ballpark of the record 691 attempts set by Drew Bledsoe in 1994, Brees’ 635 and Cutler’s 616 are the only two over 600 attempts.  Donovan McNabb threw 571 times, and I remember watching an Eagles game late last year and not even seeing them run the ball at all.  I wonder how Brees and Cutler got through the season without their tendons popping loose. 

Drew Brees. online photo, no source available
 

Speaking of Jay Cutler, there isn’t anyone more happy that Brett Favre is back than the Bears’ new quarterback.  That’s because Favre’s the only guy who would likely throw more picks than Cutler will.  Cutler had 18, and Favre had 22 in ‘08.  Vikings fans in support of Favre (and I think that’s the majority of them now) will ignore the fact that Favre led the league over Cutler while throwing almost a hundred fewer attempts.  And that Favre had a running game that Cutler would have killed for. 

 

The Jets had Thomas Jones and Leon Washington run for over 2000 yards and 20 TD’s.  Do you know who Denver’s leading rusher was last season?  Me neither – it was something named Peyton Hillis, who charged his way to 343 yards and 5 TD’s.  Cutler himself was close to that, running for 200 yards on his own two feet.  Matt Forte should take more than a little pressure off of Cutler, hopefully bringing that INT total down a couple notches. 

 

Peyton Hillis. Online photo, no source available
Don’t recognize this guy? Me either.

 
 

What is possibly more impressive about both Brees and Cutler is that despite leading the league in attempts, they were each sacked less than once a game – Cutler with 11 and Brees with 13.  Both are underrated mobility-wise, and both have quick releases.  Ironically, Brees may provide the model that the Bears hope to use with Cutler, at least in part:  despite Brees throwing for over 5,000 yards, he had no 1,000-yard receiver.  Lance Moore came the closest at 928.  To be fair, New Orleans had two other receivers besides Moore with yardage in the 700’s, which is pretty damn good for 2nd and 3rd WR’s. 

 

But Cutler and Favre are the new guys in their division, and both will be playing with pretty good run games.  When you combine receptions and carries into total touches for the 2008 season, Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson aren’t that far off, and Forte actually scored 12 TD’s to AP’s 10.  What’s the major difference between the two that could help Chicago and hurt Minnesota?  Peterson’s 9 fumbles with 4 lost to Matt Forte’s 1 fumble, 1 lost.  Can you say ‘Turnover Ratio’?  

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Adrian Peterson. Online photo, no source available

Sorry, I just couldn’t go too long without taking cheap shots at the Purple Jesus.

 

 

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