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NFL 2009 WEEK 13 PICKS – YTD: 125-61 (67%)

Dec 3

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Pro Football Picks | Comments off

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The NFL’s new policy regarding concussions and head injuries takes effect this week, and it will be interesting to see what kind of effect it has.  I think it’s kind of naïve to think that defenders won’t be taking advantage of it, now that it is essentially easier to knock an opposing player out of the game.

ben roethlisberger. online photo, no source available

Why wouldn’t they?  If you could medically disqualify a player, particularly a division opponent or during the course of a playoff game, doesn’t that give you incentive to put some extra mustard on a hit?  A concussion-inducing hit doesn’t have to be a helmet-to-helmet blow, draw a penalty, or be dirty whatsoever.  Especially if you are playing on an artificial surface, which in many cases is simply a parking lot with thin carpet on top (“field turf” is slightly more padded).  We shall see.

MARQUEE

TENNESSEE at INDY: Screw it, I’m taking the Titans.  I’ll give in to the bandwagon-hopping in favor of Tennessee, but here are my reservations: The game is in Indy, and the Titan pass defense is ranked 31st overall.  So why am I picking Tennessee?  Because the Colts have looked ready to crack for weeks now, and not only are the Titans on a 5 game roll, their pass defense has stiffened significantly during that roll.  Part of the reason is Vince Young keeping their own offense on the field, and also because Tennessee’s defensive secondary is getting healthier.

colts-titan. online photo, no source available

CB Cortland Finnegan has practiced without limitations this week for the first time all year.  And in each of Tennessee’s divisional rematches this season, the defense has played significantly better.  The Titans run game will keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines, and stun the Colts for their first loss this season, which will probably help Indianapolis in the end.  Titans 24, Colts 23.

MINNESOTA at ARIZONA: The Vikings are just too damn hot right now to be derailed in a road game in which half the stadium will be wearing purple No. 4’s.  Good weather and feel-goodsy vibe of Brett Favre will be more than enough to win this game, no matter who lines up at QB for the Cards, whether it is the foggy Kurt Warner or the inept and befuddled Matt Leinart.  Adrian Peterson getting ticketed for doing 109 on the Twin Cities’ Highway 62 will also have no effect, although rumor has it Peterson dropped the ticket on the pavement twice before being let go.  Vikes 34, Cards 20.

DALLAS at NY GIANTS: So New York has lost 5 of 6 and Dallas has won 5 of 6.  There shouldn’t be a whole lot of drama here.  Maybe I’m the only one, but this seems like a perfect trap game for Dallas.  It also seems like just the kind of game Tony Romo can’t win.  I’m probably wrong, but I’ll take the Giants in the slight upset, 21-17.

BALTIMORE at GREEN BAY: Good Monday Nighter here, and yeah, there’s a chance that neither of these teams make the playoffs, but I like the matchup.  Aaron Rodgers may be running for his life for the entire game, but that Packer o-line has improved in recent weeks.  Baltimore is the league’s best 6-5 team, having lost to Cincy twice, then dropped games against Indy, as well as on the road at New England and Minnesota (should’ve beaten the Vikes too, dammit).  Green Bay is tough at home, but I think this Ravens team will win a very well-played, physical game.  Baltimore 21, Green Bay 17.

PHILLY at ATLANTA: This game barely qualifies, and that’s without Atlanta’s starting QB and RB being out with injuries.  That’s too much for the Falcons to handle, even if Mike Vick returning to the Georgia Dome is good motivation for the Dirty Birds.  Donnie Mac will show up for his buddy Vick and send the Eagles home with a victory, Eagles 28, Atlanta 13.

mike vick. online photo, no source available

Since I’m a tad under the weather this week, I’m giving you the quick-cheap rundown of the rest of the games, and settling in with a blankie and some prescription cough syrup for the remainder of the evening.  You know, the good stuff with the codeine in it:

ONLY FOR THE HARDCORE

HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE: I still like Houston’s Matt Schaub, even if Jax has sprung forth to become a playoff contender in the last month.  Texans 27, Jags 25.

DENVER at K.C.: Denver’s domination of New York warmed my Kyle-Orton-loving heart last week, and head coach Josh McDaniels gave a passionate, animated performance that makes the rest of the league’s coaches look like they had lobotomies.  And makes Lovie Smith look dead.  Broncos 32, Chefs (has any one Snickers commercial gotten more mileage than that one?) 15.

NY JETS at BUFFALO: This game is being played in Toronto.

(crickets chirping)

Jets 17, Bills 13.

TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA: The couch is calling my name.  Panthers 20, Bucs 14.

MISMATCHES

I’l take the teams in italics to win by the ludicrous score of 50-2:

OAKLAND at PITTSBUGRH

SAN DIEGO at CLEVELAND

NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI

NEW ORLEANS at WASHINGTON

DETROIT  at CINCY

TOILET BOWL WEEK 13

ST. LOUIS at CHICAGO: F*ck you, Jay Cutler.  And f*ck you too, Jerry Angelo.  Bears 6, Rams 3.

Email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com

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NFL Week 11: The AFC North Implodes and the Bears are Awful

Nov 22

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Armchair QB | Comments off

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While all four teams in the AFC North lost today, at least the Ravens can say they lost to a good team. Baltimore fell to Indianapolis, but Cincy lost to Oakland, Pittsburgh lost to Kansas City, and Cleveland lost to the lowly Detroit Lions.

 

The latter game was a barn-burner between two of the NFL’s worst teams, featuring 724 yards passing and 75 points of bottom-feeding offense. Matthew Stafford threw for 5 TD’s, including the game-winner with no time remaining, and perennial punchline Brady Quinn threw for four scores and over 300 yards. And that’s not all.

 

lions win. online photo, no source available

 

Matthew Stafford became the NFL’s youngest QB to throw for 5 TD’s in a game, surpassing Dan Marino and Joe Namath by a big margin. Conversely, Cleveland’s Brady Quinn came into Sunday’s game with only 3 career TD’s, which he matched in the first quarter. Over Cleveland’s last 15 games, they had only scored 5 offensive TD’s, and they scored 4 on Sunday, all through the air.

 

The display was punctuated by a dramatic finish for the ages – Detroit’s Stafford tossed up a prayer with no time remaining, and Cleveland giftwrapped a pass-interference penalty in the end zone, giving Detroit the ball at the Browns’ one with no time on the clock. Stafford was creamed on the play that set up the touchdown, injuring his shoulder, and to what extent is still unclear. But Cleveland called a timeout at the end of the play, giving Stafford enough time to gather himself for the final TD pass, which he completed to TE Brandon Pettigrew to ice the game. If you think that game was the only freak occurrence in the Brown’s division, you’d be wrong.

 

Flukes abounded in the Steelers-Chiefs game, where Ben Roethlisberger threw for the 3rd-highest yardage total of his career and three TD’s, but also threw two INT’s and was knocked out of the game in OT with a concussion. Ultimately it was Pittsburgh’s defense that gave up a huge pass play that sealed the game, and Kansas City broke a 10-game home losing streak against the World Champs, who gave up yet another special-teams return TD (the 8th straight game in which that has happened). The teams from Pennsylvania are hard to predict this season.

 

ryan succup. online photo, no source available

 

Following suit, the Cincinnati Bengals lost to Oakland in a game that featured a combined 8 fumbles and 5 lost. Cedric Benson missed the game and was replaced by Bernard Scott, who filled in admirably to the tune of 119 yards on 20 carries. But Cincy’s Andre Caldwell handed the ball and the game to the Raiders when he fumbled a kickoff return inside his own 25 with 33 seconds left in the game. Sebastian Janikowski (first time I’ve typed his name, I have to say it was quite enjoyable) nailed the chip-shot to win the game for Oakland, who has proved to be a pitfall for over-confident teams from the other side of the US.

 

The New York Giants got up off the mat today against Atlanta in another overtime thriller, with Eli Manning turning in arguably his best game of the season (384 yards and three TD’s). New York’s strong start provided quite a landing pad for their freefall in the last month, and the Giants now are still in great position to take the middling, mediocre, mundane NFC East.

 

BEARS HOMER SECTION

 

I went into this game watching for a variety of sequences that would prove several theories I hold about exactly why the Bears have been terrible this season – among those would have been the ratio of press coverage to soft coverage by the Bears’ defense; how many times they ran Matt Forte up the middle out of the I formation, or how many times Don McNabb was able to connect on easy slant routes for more than 5 yards. But it’s way easier to just say that the Bears are terrible.

 

While the Bears played with good effort at times, it is disappointing to repeatedly see a good effort by one unit be completely wasted by the opposite unit. A turnover forced on defense is squandered by the offense. A rare scoring drive by the offense is never reciprocated by a defensive stand that helps build momentum.

 

bears suck. online photo, no source available

 

On top of that, at would seem that the Chicago offensive game plan for Jay Cutler has been whittled down to two steps:

 

Step 1: Throw a terrible pass, whether it be into heavy coverage or badly overthrowing a wide-open receiver
Step 2: Beg for a flag from the ref

 

That’s it. Fortunately for the Bears, if they plan on employing this particular kind of passing attack for the next decade, they have the best possible QB in the league to do it. On Sunday night vs. the Eagles, Cutler proved especially adept at overthrowing wide-open receivers that should have had TD’s. Cutler was under no pressure on the remarkably overthrown passes, a sure sign that he is more concerned with not throwing picks than he is with making completions. And he’s already drawn tens of thousands of dollars in fines for jawing at referees, so it looks like the Bears are all set for the future!

 

Jay Cutler is a cancer to a coaching staff. He got Mike Shannahan fired from Denver, and he’s about to get Lovie Smith fired too. He seems to be able to convince a front office that he isn’t the problem, and that the coaching staff and other personnel is. Shannahan won two Super Bowls in Denver before Cutler came along and got him canned. How long will Smith’s Super Bowl loss carry him with this front office (probably a while, actually, says Smith’s $10M buyout clause)?

 

Fact of the matter is that Jay Cutler, like the QB that took Chicago to the big game in 2006, can thrive if given ideal conditions. But to expect Cutler to lift a team out of mediocrity is expecting too much. If you know Cutler, you know that isn’t possible.

 

Likewise, Lovie Smith’s defense, predicated on not giving up the big play and creating turnovers/QB pressure, isn’t talented enough anymore to play the law of averages that says if they sit deep on routes and refuse to give up the home run, they’ll win. It just isn’t that simple. Teams have figured it out. It may require the patience to take what the Bears give you, but little study is required to realize that the Bears will give you a lot. Enough with this. The Bears suck ass, and that’s that.

 

contact email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com

 

 

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NFL 2009 WEEK 11 PICKS – YTD: 91-53 (63%)

Nov 18

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Pro Football Picks | 1 Comment

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Slim pickings in Week 11 as we enter the real 2nd half of the 2009 NFL regular season.  There are exactly 11 more weekends of pro football left until it’s over.  Until next September.  I’m already starting to panic.

 

Before you roll your eyes too hard, please kindly take note that I live in Minnesota.  When football season ends, I, like all the other residents of this state, tend to wake up that second Sunday in February to the stark reality that the next 11 to 12 Sundays are going to be Minnesota-Winter Sundays…without football.  That isn’t comforting.  Sundays go from anticipated to hated.  Sunday is aleady the crappy weekend day before your weekend ends.  During football season, Sunday is blanketed in the NFL’s filthy-rich Snuggie of distraction.  It makes Sundays bearable during the early months of ‘Minnesota Winter’.  When football ends, then what do we do?  If you don’t have a thing for ice-fishing, then you’re pretty much stuck watching Spaceballs for the umpteenth time on Sunday afternoons.  And it’s on network TV, which means commercials and editing.  And you’re chained to your tiny apartment in a 105-year-old house with steam-heat radiators and bad wiring until the temp climbs back up above -15.  See why I’m panicking?

 

Eff Winter. online photo, no source available
My thoughts exactly.

 

MARQUEE

 

INDY at BALTIMORE: Excellent game.  Even though the Ravens have been less than what I expected from them this season, no one should ever try to say that any opponent doesn’t have to take them graveyard-seriously.  The teams that the Ravens have lost to are good teams: Patriots, Bengals and Vikings – and the largest margin of defeat has been 10 points.  And this week they play the Colts.  They still have to play Pittsburgh twice.  That’s a tough schedule.  Baltimore will be 5-5 after this week, and they’re a damn good team.  They won’t beat the Colts.  They deserve to, but they won’t:  Indy 26, Ravens 16.

 

Peyton Manning. online photo, no source available

 

MARQUEE-ISH

 

There are a bunch of mid-level games and pseudo-mismatches that have playoff implications this week.  They aren’t worth your time if you’re not a fan of either team, but they are important:

 

DENVER at SAN DIEGO: My, how the tables have turned.  After a 2-3 start, the Chargers have won 4 in a row; after a 6-0 start, Denver has now lost three in a row.  What are the chances that the Broncos are able to blunt the inertia of both of these teams?  Not too good, especially with Kyle Orton likely to sit with an ankle injury.  This is strangely reminiscent of Orton’s 2008 season, when he sustained an ankle injury about halfway through the year, and was rushed back and was ineffective against a division opponent deemed too dangerous to play against with the backup.  In fairness, that backup was Rex Grossman, and also in fairness, this backup is Chris Simms.  I hope Denver doesn’t make the same mistake.  Let him heal and the Broncos will be cool.  Even if they lose this game, which they will.  Chargers 28, Broncos 13.

 

ATLANTA at NY GIANTS: Until last week, the Falcons could still make the argument that they hadn’t lost to a team on a lower shelf yet.  But then they lost to the Panthers.  The Giants haven’t won a game in a month, and their road isn’t getting any easier than it has been.  If New York loses, they’re finished.  If Atlanta loses, they’re likely finished too, but they still get to play the Bucs twice before the season is over, so they could still have a wildcard pulse.  I don’t trust either team, but I’ll say Atlanta 27, Giants 21.

 

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND: The Jets popped up on the Patriots’ schedule at the wrong time.  Bill Belichick is sick of the 2nd-guessing of his 4th-and-2 call from his own 28 last week, the call that cost the Patriots the game.  Someone must be punished for this indignity.  Someone must suffer for this outrage.  That someone is the New York Football Jets.

 

Bill Belichick. online photo, no source available

 

That isn’t to say that Rex Ryan won’t have his team fully aware of that fact all week.  The Jets should come out playing for their lives, which they should be.  New England will be amped.  Brady will be looking to put up big points against a snarky division rival who had the audacity to beat them earlier this season.  The Jets defense will put up a fight, but Mark Sanchez might poop his pants come kickoff.  If he manages to win the game, it will be the coming-out party to end all Mark Sanchez Coming Out Parties.  But he won’t.  Pats 28, Jets 19.

 

NOT MARQUEE, BUT NATIONALLY TELEVISED

 

PHILIDELPHIA at CHICAGO: The Bears suck, but Philly has won contests against the likes of Carolina, the Giants, KC, Tampa Bay and Washington.  They don’t have a quality win yet.  And they still won’t after they beat Chicago this week.  Eagles 24, Bears 13.
jay cutler. online photo, no source available
Jay Cutler Glamour Shots photo. They told him to look like a Baldwin

 

TENNESSEE at HOUSTON: It’s Run vs. Pass; Thunder vs. Lightning.  The Titans have enjoyed a bit of a resurgence lately under the steady hand of Vince Young.  Tennessee’s 2nd-ranked rushing offense faces a mediocre Houston defense, but the Texans’ pass game is elite and the Tennessee pass defense is GARBAGE (31st overall).

 

So what matters more?  Is this a referendum on the evolution of the NFL passing game?  Does this game represent the clash of the NFL past vs. the NFL present?  Is this going to be an epic showdown of cataclysmic consequences?

 

No, actually it’s just a fairly meaningless division matchup pitting two largely forgettable teams against each other.  The favored team, Houston, will win, and it won’t be all that impressive, just enough to get the job done.  Texans 31, Titans 17.

 

MISMATCHES

 

So, which of my declared gimmies will fall this week?  There are three at-home underdogs here, and I missed on two last week, although I doubt I was the only one.  I’ll take all the squads in italics to win by the score of 31-19:

 

CINCINNATI at OAKLAND

ARIZONA at ST. LOUIS

NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY

SEATTLE at MINNESOTA

PITTSBURGH at KANSAS CITY

 

THESE GAMES DEFY CATEGORIZATION

 

MIAMI at CAROLINA: Two good run games with two has-been/never-was QB’s.  Could be an old-fashioned ground-grind, or it could be a really long, boring field-goal fest.  Kinda the same thing, I guess.  I’ll say that the result is somewhere in between, and that Miami proves to be the more complete, well-rounded team:  Dolphins 22, Panthers 13.

 

SAN FRAN at GREEN BAY: This will probably be a quality game between two desperate teams, but I just can’t tell you with a straight face to care about it.

 

�
aaron rodgers sacked. online photo, no source available

 

Both these clubs will hover around .500 for at least the rest of this season, and while I wish goodwill to both of these hallowed franchises, they just aren’t relevant this year.  Both teams have bright futures once the leading teams in their respective divisions put their geriatric quarterbacks out to pasture.  I’ll take the Pack at home, and the 49ers need to go get an actual QB.  GB 23, SF 14.

 

WASHINGTON at DALLAS: I realize that this is a mismatch on paper, but integrity/CYA states that after Dallas’ loss to the Packers and the R*dsk*ns’ victory over Denver, I can’t put this game in either the Mismatch or the Marquee slots.  But it is a rivalry game.  Dallas will probably win at home and it probably won’t be close.  Cowboys 33, D.C. 9.

 

WEEK 11 TOILET BOWLS

 

CLEVELAND at DETROIT: I’m taking the Lions, and it has nothing to do with anything Eric Mangini said/did or didn’t say/do this week.  I don’t care what the blank-faced half-wit does or has to say.  It’s because the Browns are terrible.  It’s because Brady Quinn is terrible.  It’s because the only guy worth even thinking about on the Browns, Josh Cribbs, is likely out with a concussion/neck injury.  I’ve already spent too much time on this game.  Lions 20, Browns 10.

 

BUFFALO at JACKSONVILLE: I’d like to take this opportunity to say sayonara to The D*ckface.  The Bills fired their head coach, Dick Jauron, this week to scapegoat the team’s putrid 2009 season.  I don’t blame them.  I’ve experienced firsthand just how The D*ckface operates.  Jauron is so over-obsessed about playing mistake-free football that the entire gameplan revolves around doing just enough to lose respectably.  Whatever the other team does is okay as long as it appeared on paper that you made them earn it.

 

This mantra wasn’t working as of late, especially last week when Buffalo suffered the pain of not only being mudstomped by a one-dimensional bottom-feeder, but also being flipped the bird by said bottom-feeder’s 86 year-old patriarch. 

 

Bud Adams. online photo, no source available

 

Tough week, to be sure.  Jags 15, Bills 12.

 

Email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com

 

 

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NFL WEEK 10: TRUST NO ONE

Nov 15

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Armchair QB | Comments off

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Can we trust the Patriots to hold on to a lead anymore? Bill Belichick out-thunk himself with his 4th-and-2 call from his own 28.  The rationale is that he thought his offense had a better shot of picking up 2 yards on 4th down than his defense did of stopping Manning.  Even if they failed to convert the 4th-and-2, it would have the same result as punting, right?  That’s a stretch, and it gave the Colts the ball 29 yards from a touchdown with over 2 minutes to play. There was also a bunch of oddly-burned timeouts sprinkled in there.

 

Indy Colts. online photo, no source available

 

Failing to convert the 4th-and-2 wasn’t really ever considered, which is in Belichick’s nature and part of what makes him the arrogant cutthroat that he is.  Maybe karma bit him in the ass on this one, and that’s bound to happen.  But if the Patriots’ defense is this unreliable to their head coach, the Pats have problems that will have implications later. 

 

For now, the New England loss caps off what was a terrible week for my record.  Discretion will be necessary from here on out.

 

Denver and Atlanta couldn’t trust backups, after each lost high-performing starters in the 2nd quarter.  When Denver QB Kyle Orton left his game vs. the R*dsk*ns with an ankle injury, he was 11-18 for 193 yards and 2 TD’s.  When Atlanta RB Michael Turner left his game vs. the Panthers with an ankle injury, he had 111 yards on 9 carries.

 

M. Turner. online photo, no source available

 

Orton’s replacement was Chris Simms, who posted a 7.5 passer rating (as opposed to Orton’s 134.5).  Atlanta was already down counter-puncher Jerious Norwood, so something named Jason Snelling filled in, and did okay.  61 yards and a touchdown, but Atlanta fell apart after the injury and was already getting torched on defense.

 

Dallas couldn’t trust Tony Romo, whose stats aren’t great or awful, but his only INT came after a 14 play, 79-yard drive to the Green Bay 1, where he was picked off by Charles Woodson just short of the goal line to all but seal the loss.  Crappy quarterbacks throw picks in the redzone when the stakes are high and your team is still in the game (ahem…jaycutler).

 

Tony Romo. online photo, no source available

 

Aaron Rodgers earned some trust after righting the ship against the Cowboys, and even the offensive line got in on the act, scattering 4 sacks against a good Dallas defense.  Green Bay’s own defense swarmed Romo all day, sacking him 5 times and hitting him hard.  It was a fun game to watch considering the score was 3-0 Packers going into the 4th quarter.

 

clay matthews. online photo, no source available

 

Pittsburgh couldn’t trust their special teams, which gave up a return score for a revolting 7th straight game.  The 96-yarder in the 2nd quarter by the Bengals’ Bernard Scott was the difference in the field-goal fest, which featured virtually no offensive ball movement.  8 kicks went through either set of uprights, and 6 of them were 32 yards or longer.  Cincy’s Cedric Benson and Steeler Troy Polamalu were both knocked out of the game.

 

The Jets couldn’t trust their 4th-ranked defense to keep Jacksonville’s 21st-ranked offense from scoring a field goal to win the game.  Philly couldn’t trust it’s offense, which could only manage 23 points in San Diego despite getting 450 yards and two TD’s on 35 completions from Donovan McNabb.

 

We almost couldn’t trust New Orleans against lowly St. Louis, who fought back in the game against a banged-up Saints defense in the second half.  The Saints’ stable of running backs were able to save the day, but N.O. is hurting right now in the secondary and the Saints’ date with New England in two weeks just started looking a little tougher for Drew Brees & Company, who committed 3 turnovers today.

 

drew brees. online photo, no source available

 

Tampa bay already didn’t trust its defense, who did set up a potential game-winning TD by picking off Chad Henne on a horrific pass deep in Dolphin territory.  But then that same defense let the same QB march almost 80 yards in just over a minute to win the game with a chip-shot field goal.  Josh Freeman turned in his second solid performance in as many starts, and has Tampa Bay feeling optimistic for the future.

 

And finally, if you can trust anything in the NFL right now, as much as it pains me in a profound and intimate way to say it, you can trust in Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings offense. It’s something that I have to come to grips with, and it might as well happen sooner rather than later.  I know they played the Lions today, and I know the final score of 27-10 isn’t even that big of a blowout, but Minnesota made it look effortless.

 

AP looked very healthy and well rested (18 carries for 133, 2 TD) after the bye week, galloping through tackles and cutting with precision.  Acceleration, burst, violence, anger.  Wait until he plays an opponent that matters.

 

adrian peterson. online photo, no source available

 

Brett Favre made Sydney Rice look like some kind of freak combination of Randy Moss and Jerry Rice, which he isn’t, but he was against Detroit.  This game wasn’t close, ever.  Minnesota left points on the board, which is an issue, but it doesn’t matter.  This team isn’t f—ing around anymore, and Favre will have these bastards ready to play the big games.

 

The Viking pass defense will need to improve, and Antoine Winfield will likely have to be in top form to get past this New Orleans offense in the playoffs, and Jared Allen may have to show up for a game not against Green Bay (1 tackle, 0 sacks on Sunday), but this offense is serious.  Brett Favre is currently projected to finish the season with almost 3900 yards, 32 TD’s and 6 picks.  Brady and Manning might throw for more yards, but at 40, leading a team that was a mess offensively last season to a dominating regular season in 2009, Favre still has to be the favorite to win it.

 

After typing that last sentence, I am going to go drink beer, eat chicken wings, and cry, all at the same time.

 

contact email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com

 

 

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NFL 2009 WEEK 9 PICKS – YTD: 78-38 (67%)

Nov 5

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Pro Football Picks | Comments off

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MARQUEE MATCHUPS

 

PITTSBURGH at DENVER: Last week, Denver’s offense got snuffed for virtually the entire game vs. Baltimore, and the stout Bronco defense could only hold its ground until the 4th quarter.  The lone TD drive the Denver offense was able to muster was aided by two huge pass-interference penalties (the first was for 40 yards) and an offsides flag on Ed Reed on 4th-and-1.  Denver RB Knowshon Moreno capped his one-yard TD run that was set up by the 2nd P.I. flag by blowing a kiss to the crowd that was far more obnoxious than it sounds.  He finished with 39 yards on the day and 2.4 per carry on the TD drive.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers. online photo, no source available

 

Pittsburgh rode a 4-game win streak into their Bye last week, the last of which was to hand the Vikings their only loss.  Denver’s offense is a capable, efficient, competent unit, but Mike Tomlin and company will find a way to match the Raven’s 3-4 game plan that worked so well.  Steelers 27, Broncos 14.

 

DALLAS at PHILLY: Both these teams are nursing tooth-to-fist wounds after kicking the sh*t out of their opponents last week.  Dallas easily whipped Seattle 38-17, and then the Eagles whipped the Giants even slightly worse, 40-17.  Philly has won 4 of their last 5, but their opponent’s combined record during the stretch is 10-27.  AND their loss was to Oakland.

 

D. McNabb. online photo, no source available

 

Dallas is also 4-1 in their last five games, but they’ve also feasted on a few creampuffs (Panthers, Chiefs, Seahawks), so I don’t know who to trust.  The Eagles came through for me big time last week, so I’ll stick with Don McNabb and Andy Reid being able to rattle Tony Romo.  Although then again, perhaps Jerrah took Romo to The Sizzler this week after beating the Falcons, and Tony will be feeling confident.  I’ll still take the Eagles, 28-24.

 

BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI: As impressive a year this has been for the Bengals, QB Carson Palmer has thrown for less yards than his opposing QB in 5 of their 7 games this season.  He was out-passed by Cleveland’s Derek Anderson in week 4.  This means that either Palmer kinda actually sucks, or the Cincy pass defense does.  Turns out it’s the defense.  Ranked 27th in passing D, the Bengals really struggle against a decent quarterback.

 

Joe Flacco is not among the QB’s who’ve excelled this season vs. the Bengals. In their first meeting he had easily his worst game of the year.  Which is why, after posting 100+ passer ratings in his last two games (actually twin 109.2’s), Flacco will exact revenge on the Bengals and lead the Ravens to a statement-making road win, 34-10 in Cincinnati.

 

HOUSTON at INDY: I think this has the potential to be the best game of the week, but its regionally-scented essence makes it mostly an AFC South thang.  The matchup will get a lot more attention after the game is over, because Houston will be handing the Colts their first loss, at home.  In fact, the Colts will be doing a lot of crashing to Earth in the next month.  After starting 7-0 on a schedule with a 17-33 combined record and an average opponents offensive ranking of almost 22, the Colts’ No. 1 ranked defense is the next NFL mirage to be exposed.

 

The Houston Texans offense ranks 6th in scoring, 1st in passing, and 1st in all-purpose return yards on special teams.  The Colts simply haven’t faced anything like Houston’s passing attack so far in 2009.  The best offense they’ve played to date is Miami’s, 13th overall – and Miami doesn’t even line up a quarterback or receivers.  All the Dolphins have is tight ends, guards, and tailbacks.  That’s it.  I like Houston in a game that isn’t as close as the score indicates: Texans 38, Colts 26.

 

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND: This game seems like an easy pick and I will eventually take the Patriots, but both of these teams’ current standings must be taken in the context of their last few games.  The last three teams the Dolphins have played are the Jets, the Saints, and the Jets again.  And while they’ve given up an average of 134 yards rushing, they beat the Jets both times to go 2-1 over a brutal 3-game stretch.  And against the Saints, they played a dominant game before the Saints adjusted offensively and commenced to ass-whoopin’.

 

R. Brown. online photo, no source available

 

The Patriots have outscored their last three opponents by a combined score of 111-27, but their last two games were against the Titans and the Bucs.  We all know that the Titans and the Bucs are absolutely terrible, but the New England Patriots did things to them that are still illegal in at least 3 Southern states, even between consenting adults.  There is too much firepower for Miami this week, just like when they played New Orleans.  Pats 29, Dolphins 17.

 

SAN DIEGO at NY GIANTS: The Giants and their fans are starting to panic.  3-game losing streak.  Eli Manning has gone from a 131.2 passer rating over the first 5 weeks to a 47.2 over the last three.  9 turnovers in the last three games by a formerly-disciplined offense.  The future isn’t looking bright either.  Coming up on the Giants’ sked are as follows: Chargers, Falcons, at Broncos, Dallas, Philadelphia, and two weeks later at Minnesota.  Anyone who says that the NFC East has one or both of the wildcard spots locked up already isn’t looking at schedules, and Philly ain’t got it easy either.  In this one, I’ll say San Diego, whose QB is averaging 290 yards a game, will send NY to it’s 4th straight loss.  Bolts 34, Giants 22.

 

ARIZONA at CHICAGO: Both these teams are clinging desperately to NFL relevance.  Both 4-3, Chicago is more desperate as they trail the idle 7-1 Minnesota Vikings while the Cardinals lead their own crappy division.  Both teams played lesser opponents last week at home.  The difference is that the Bears forced 5 turnovers and Arizona gave six away.

 

I had the pleasure of attending last week’s Bears-Browns game and as a result I remember very little of the actual football played in front of me (a genuine thanks to those who saw to that).  But what I do remember amounts to this: booing Chicago off the field after 3 straight drives inside Cleveland’s 5-yard line netted field goals; booing after a plethora of wimpy-natured screen, draw, bubble-screen, and up-the-gut handoffs led to a 27% 3rd-down conversion rate AGAINST THE CLEVELAND BROWNS; being pissed that I had to go take a leak at halftime and missing the Walter Payton tribute; Charles Tillman returning a diving interception for a TD near the end of the game; and then it gets hazier.

 

The Bears will win this one on defense and with an inspired passing performance, 29-13.

 

 

It’s already past my bedtime, so here’s a rundown of the games that won’t matter:

 

MISMATCHES

 

GREEN BAY at TAMPA BAY: See ya next week, Buccaneers.  You suck. Pack 33, TB 12.

 

CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS: I don’t care that the Panthers upset the Cardinals last week.  They’re garbage, and I don’t mean that in a bad way.  Most teams are garbage.  Saints 34, Panthers 19.

 

TENNESSEE at SAN FRANCISCO: The Titans got the proverbial monkey off of their proverbial backs, but it matters little.  The Niners will move into a tie for first with Arizona in the NFC West with a win.  SF 23, Tennessee 15.

 

D.C. TEAM at ATLANTA: The Falcons have shown that while they aren’t quite ready to evenly compete with the higher-shelf teams in the NFL, they’re more than happy to kick around the teams who range from swine to just treading water.  If you can achieve just a bit more, then you give Atlanta problems.  The Redsk*ns don’t achieve anything.  Fulkens 24, Washington 13.

 

UGLY AS SIN

 

KANSAS CITY at JACKSONVILLE: This game could possibly be -on a perfect day- a good, moderately entertaining game.  These teams are both very hit-or-miss, and if they both come ready to dominate each others mediocrity, it could be a competitive affair.  But it won’t be.  Jags by two field goals, 16-10.

 

DETROIT at SEATTLE: I’ve got things to do.  Latte-Drinking 90’s Rock Burnouts 22, Out of Work American Car Manufacturing Workers 15.

 

 

email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com

 

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