I’m beginning to doubt myself with my projections.  This one doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, but I call ‘em how I see ‘em:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: 11-5

ATLANTA FALCONS: 10-6

CAROLINA PANTHERS: 8-8

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: 4-12

THE SAINTS:

New Orleans was all offense and no defense last year, ranking first in almost every category with the ball, and 26^th overall without it.  The imbalance resulted in an 8-8 record, disappointing for a team whose QB threw for 5,069 yards and 34 TD’s. 

Gratuitous cheerleader photo

The Saints employed a strange formula: while they were 1^st overall in total offense they had no 1000-yard receiver or rusher.  I say this mainly to point out to my father that the Bears don’t need Devin Hester to be a prototypical No. 1 wideout to have a prolific offense.  The Dolphins used the same model, resulting in Drew Brees and Chad Pennington being the No.’s 1 and 2 quarterbacks in the NFL. 

The Saints overhauled their secondary in the off-season to remedy the defense, but signing Darren Sharper makes me question their judgment.  But somehow I see them improving by 3 victories with a harder schedule. 

THE FALCONS:

I’m much higher on the DirtyBirds than I am on the Ain’ts, but this is how it worked out.  Not only that, but Atlanta added HOF’er Tony Gonzalez to their offense, who is desperate for a title.

Also their first 5 draft picks were on defense, showing likable coach Mike Smith’s commitment to improving an already 11-5 upstart squad. Michael Turner and Matt Ryan will make them a tough game on every opponent’s schedule, but road games in Foxboro, Dallas, and two in New York make it tough to duplicate last year’s success. 

I hereby promise today to make the Falcons my sleeper-cinderella-darkhorse-longshot playoff team.  The sky’s the limit for Atlanta, and by “the sky” I mean 10 wins and 2^nd place in the division.

THE PANTHERS:

I’d like a show of hands of people who remember the Carolina Panthers winning 12 games last year.  Maybe a couple folks from Myrtle Beach?  How about Steve Smith racking up over 1,400 yards?  Me neither.

I do remember Carolina’s running game being excellent, and when I went to the interwebs to see the actual numbers, I was still surprised.  DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and a couple others ran for almost 2,500 yards and a total of 30 touchdowns.  Wow.  They also ranked 12th overall in defense, so how did Jake Delhomme throw more picks than TD’s last year? 

Maybe it’s because, contrary to popular belief, Jake Delhomme actually…sucks. 

I point to perhaps the single-worst playoff performance by a quarterback ever – versus the Arizona Cardinals (not exactly a team known for suffocating, punishing defense), Jake the Fake threw five (5) interceptions and one score.  In his own stadium.  Maybe I’m desensitized by the 0.0’s put up in the past few years by Rex Grossman, but Delhomme’s 39.1 rating in that home playoff game doesn’t seem low enough for me.  Reality catches up with the Panthers this year.

On a lighter note, the Panthers do win the award for The Funniest Name in Training Camp – I was seriously dejected when Carolina cut ties with receiver Larry Beavers.  Here’s to hoping another team signs him off waivers.  I’ll buy the jersey. 

The immortal Larry Beavers.  Godspeed, young man.  

THE BUCCANEERS

I’ll be honest, there isn’t much for me to like about Tampa Bay this year.  They took their winning record last year and decided that it was bad enough to cut three likable, albeit over the hill, veterans in Jeff Garcia (90.2 QB rating), Warrick Dunn, and Derrick Brooks. 

They hired head coach Raheem Morris…I guess he’s a good guy…(wide-eyed -shoulder-shrug in obliviousness) and traded for Kellen Winslow, who combines with Jerramy Stevens to make up the NFL’s All-D-Bag Tight End tandem. 

Raheem Morris: “Hey, even I don’t like Jerramy Stevens.”

Derrick Ward is a bright-spot move for the Bucs, and for some reason I still am a Byron Leftwich fan.  I must have a soft spot for rocket-armed QB’s from Marshall.  Look for Ward, Cadillac Williams, and Earnest Graham to all get drafted in lots of fantasy drafts, and then never really do much.  Okay, probably not, but I’m not a fantasy guy.

Tags: 2009, bucs, deangelo williams, dirty birds, drew brees, falcons, jake delhomme, jerramy stevens, jonathon stewart, kellen winslow, larry beavers, matt ryan, nfc south predictions, nfc south projections, nfl expert, nick thomas, panthers, saints, tony gonzalez