Posts Tagged kyle orton

NFL WEEK 10: TRUST NO ONE

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Can we trust the Patriots to hold on to a lead anymore? Bill Belichick out-thunk himself with his 4th-and-2 call from his own 28.  The rationale is that he thought his offense had a better shot of picking up 2 yards on 4th down than his defense did of stopping Manning.  Even if they failed to convert the 4th-and-2, it would have the same result as punting, right?  That’s a stretch, and it gave the Colts the ball 29 yards from a touchdown with over 2 minutes to play. There was also a bunch of oddly-burned timeouts sprinkled in there.

 

Indy Colts.  online photo, no source available

 

Failing to convert the 4th-and-2 wasn’t really ever considered, which is in Belichick’s nature and part of what makes him the arrogant cutthroat that he is.  Maybe karma bit him in the ass on this one, and that’s bound to happen.  But if the Patriots’ defense is this unreliable to their head coach, the Pats have problems that will have implications later. 

 

For now, the New England loss caps off what was a terrible week for my record.  Discretion will be necessary from here on out.

 

Denver and Atlanta couldn’t trust backups, after each lost high-performing starters in the 2nd quarter.  When Denver QB Kyle Orton left his game vs. the R*dsk*ns with an ankle injury, he was 11-18 for 193 yards and 2 TD’s.  When Atlanta RB Michael Turner left his game vs. the Panthers with an ankle injury, he had 111 yards on 9 carries.

 

M. Turner.  online photo, no source available

 

Orton’s replacement was Chris Simms, who posted a 7.5 passer rating (as opposed to Orton’s 134.5).  Atlanta was already down counter-puncher Jerious Norwood, so something named Jason Snelling filled in, and did okay.  61 yards and a touchdown, but Atlanta fell apart after the injury and was already getting torched on defense.

 

Dallas couldn’t trust Tony Romo, whose stats aren’t great or awful, but his only INT came after a 14 play, 79-yard drive to the Green Bay 1, where he was picked off by Charles Woodson just short of the goal line to all but seal the loss.  Crappy quarterbacks throw picks in the redzone when the stakes are high and your team is still in the game (ahem…jaycutler).

 

Tony Romo.  online photo, no source available

 

Aaron Rodgers earned some trust after righting the ship against the Cowboys, and even the offensive line got in on the act, scattering 4 sacks against a good Dallas defense.  Green Bay’s own defense swarmed Romo all day, sacking him 5 times and hitting him hard.  It was a fun game to watch considering the score was 3-0 Packers going into the 4th quarter.

 

clay matthews.  online photo, no source available

 

Pittsburgh couldn’t trust their special teams, which gave up a return score for a revolting 7th straight game.  The 96-yarder in the 2nd quarter by the Bengals’ Bernard Scott was the difference in the field-goal fest, which featured virtually no offensive ball movement.  8 kicks went through either set of uprights, and 6 of them were 32 yards or longer.  Cincy’s Cedric Benson and Steeler Troy Polamalu were both knocked out of the game.

 

The Jets couldn’t trust their 4th-ranked defense to keep Jacksonville’s 21st-ranked offense from scoring a field goal to win the game.  Philly couldn’t trust it’s offense, which could only manage 23 points in San Diego despite getting 450 yards and two TD’s on 35 completions from Donovan McNabb.

 

We almost couldn’t trust New Orleans against lowly St. Louis, who fought back in the game against a banged-up Saints defense in the second half.  The Saints’ stable of running backs were able to save the day, but N.O. is hurting right now in the secondary and the Saints’ date with New England in two weeks just started looking a little tougher for Drew Brees & Company, who committed 3 turnovers today.

 

drew brees.  online photo, no source available

 

Tampa bay already didn’t trust its defense, who did set up a potential game-winning TD by picking off Chad Henne on a horrific pass deep in Dolphin territory.  But then that same defense let the same QB march almost 80 yards in just over a minute to win the game with a chip-shot field goal.  Josh Freeman turned in his second solid performance in as many starts, and has Tampa Bay feeling optimistic for the future.

 

And finally, if you can trust anything in the NFL right now, as much as it pains me in a profound and intimate way to say it, you can trust in Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings offense. It’s something that I have to come to grips with, and it might as well happen sooner rather than later.  I know they played the Lions today, and I know the final score of 27-10 isn’t even that big of a blowout, but Minnesota made it look effortless.

 

AP looked very healthy and well rested (18 carries for 133, 2 TD) after the bye week, galloping through tackles and cutting with precision.  Acceleration, burst, violence, anger.  Wait until he plays an opponent that matters.

 

adrian peterson.  online photo, no source available

 

Brett Favre made Sydney Rice look like some kind of freak combination of Randy Moss and Jerry Rice, which he isn’t, but he was against Detroit.  This game wasn’t close, ever.  Minnesota left points on the board, which is an issue, but it doesn’t matter.  This team isn’t f—ing around anymore, and Favre will have these bastards ready to play the big games.

 

The Viking pass defense will need to improve, and Antoine Winfield will likely have to be in top form to get past this New Orleans offense in the playoffs, and Jared Allen may have to show up for a game not against Green Bay (1 tackle, 0 sacks on Sunday), but this offense is serious.  Brett Favre is currently projected to finish the season with almost 3900 yards, 32 TD’s and 6 picks.  Brady and Manning might throw for more yards, but at 40, leading a team that was a mess offensively last season to a dominating regular season in 2009, Favre still has to be the favorite to win it.

 

After typing that last sentence, I am going to go drink beer, eat chicken wings, and cry, all at the same time.

 

contact email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com

 

 

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CUTLER vs. ORTON: CHICAGO GOT SWINDLED

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Sooo, Chicago’s Jay Cutler signed a 2-year contract extension today, loaded with $30 million in new money and $20 million guaranteed.  This seems like an appropriate time to analyze how Cutler stacks up with his trade-bait counterpart in Denver, Kyle Orton.

 

Full disclosure, I fully admit bias – I’ll give you my Bears tickets if you can find one person who says I was on board with the trade back in April.  I knew Cutler could play, and I also knew I’d hated him since college.  I knew there was a reason that a lot of other pros just didn’t like him.  It wasn’t just limited to San Diego where Cutler was strongly disliked.

 

Jay Cutler.  online photo, no source available

Jay Cutler: “I’m warning you, I’m pretty much a total pr*ck”

 

I could go on, but it’s pointless.  He’s the Bears’ QB and I’ve got to root for a guy I don’t like, it’s that simple.

 

Who I did like before the trade was Kyle Orton.  I liked rooting for him, even though his numbers weren’t top-shelf.  I thought that when Orton was given a set of options in a situation, chances were that he was going to make the right decision.

 

It’s how he turned the Bears’ doomed 2005 season into a playoff run his rookie year.  Lest ye Bears fans hath forgotten that year, starter Rex Grossman broke his ankle in the 2nd preseason game in St. Louis.  Grossman’s backup, Chad Hutchinson, played so terribly in the next two preseason games that he was cut prior to week one.  That left the Bears no choice but to turn to the 4th-round rookie from Purdue, Kyle Orton – who, after starting 2-3 (only a game worse than the Bears are today), he engineered an 8-game winning streak, before being thanklessly benched at halftime of a home game against Atlanta in December, a game he surely could have won if he’d made it past halftime.

 

Kyle Orton.  online photo, no sirce available

Kyle Orton, wondering why he got the boot twice in Chicago with a 21-12 record.

 

But Lovie Smith and GM Jerry Angelo saw an opportunity to showcase their QB with a big arm, who they’d saved a roster spot for all year instead of putting him on injured reserve.  Instead of rewarding Orton for saving their season and their asses, they shoved a clipboard in his hands and put in Rex, who played in more regular-season game and then got pounded in the playoffs by the Carolina Panthers.  It squandered the home-field advantage and the 11-5 record that the rookie built for him.

 

Angelo and Smith decided that it was time to ditch Kyle again after the 2008 season, trading Orton, 2 first-round picks and a third rounder to Denver for the big-guns Cutler.  It’s what Chicago fans wanted.  There were no vigils for Kyle Orton; Chicago couldn’t wait to embrace it’s new melo-drama QB.

 

It just so happens that the Bears signed Cutler to this extension after 5 games, which is ironic, when you look at the last time that Chicago had a legit offense, even though I still hesitate to even use that word now. The last time would be the first 5 games of 2006, before that fateful night in Arizona.  Before the Monday Night Miracle performed by the Chicago defense in Week 6, the Grossman-led offense was unstoppable.  Grossman was never the same after that night (0 TD, 4 INT), and hasn’t matched that stretch since.  Here’s some numbers to crunch:

 

KYLE ORTON 2009

6-0 record, 100.1 passer rating, 244 yards a game and 9 TD’s with 1 INT.

 


JAY CUTLER 2009

3-2 record, 86.9 passer rating, 240 yards a game and 10 TD’s with 7 INT’s.

 


REX GROSSMAN 2006 (through first 5 games)

5-0 record, 102.6 passer rating, 248 yards a game and 10 TD’s with 3 INT’s.

 

Can you imagine if Grossman was signed to an extension after Week 5?  Me neither.  Thank the Good Lord.

 


 

My point is that as it stands right now, the Bears got grifted in the trade for Cutler.  While Denver uses Chicago’s surprisingly high 1st round draft pick next season and the Bears are left with huge holes on the offensive line and linebacking unit, Josh McDaniels will laugh as he solidifies his squad for years to come with multiple 1st-round selections.

 


To their credit, the Bears got to eat up much of the guaranteed value of the deal with the cap space they have available this season, so it is a mutually beneficial deal for both parties.  But the real motivation behind the signing was that Angelo wasn’t going to give up what he traded for Cutler and let him reach free agency, where he’d either have to overpay him or let him go after two years, which isn’t an option.

 


The fact that Cutler even complied scares me.  I’ve seen enough Bears play their asses off until they get their first big contract, then hit the brakes in just about every way imaginable.  I do believe in Cutler’s competitiveness, but can he find that fire after pocketing a $12 Million signing bonus?  Was he too easily swayed into getting his value now instead of waiting until after the season, when the true sociopathic narcissist would assume that they had been brilliant and worth more?

 


Denver got a cerebral team guy who doesn’t have Cutler’s cannon or mobility (or ego), but they’re undefeated and Chicago is two games back in their division.  I think the Bears can even with the Vikings before season’s end, but the Broncos don’t look to be slowing down after taking out New England two weeks ago and winning a tough division road game in the 4th quarter in San Diego.

 


 

Meanwhile, Chicago newspaper reporters are one more multiple-interception performance away from baiting Jay Cutler into a public meltdown so they can rip his play and his personality at the same time.  They lost a heartbreaker in Atlanta for the second year in a row and the natives are restless.  The running game is being crucified, and Cutler is next because the defense will ultimately get a pass for Urlacher going down Week 1.

 


If the Bears don’t win in Cincinnati this Sunday, Chicago will turn on Jay Cutler.  This is the town that forced Rex Grossman to the bench a mere two games after he started in the Super Bowl.  Don’t think Cutler and his facial expressions will last long, especially if Orton keeps outplaying him in Denver.

 


Lovie Smith, Jerry Angelo, and offensive coordinator Ron Turner all pretty much have their jobs wrapped up in Cutler’s success, and while I don’t want to see Lovie Smith be let go, he should be if Chicago misses the playoffs.  They all should be.  And then let some other regime come in and try changing Jay’s diapers.

 

contact email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com

 

 

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NFL WEEK 5: DENVER, CINCY GET IT DONE & MINNESOTA IS OVERRATED

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Jared Allen and the Minnesota defense in particular is overrated, but the Denver Broncos are not. The Broncos and the Bengals are officially the surprises of the 2009 season, with each team besting two consecutive opponents considered much better than themselves.

 

But first, I’ll repeat this: the Minnesota Vikings are overrated. Jared Allen is overrated. Adrian Peterson is overrated. The defense as a whole is overrated.

 

jared allen.  online photo, no source available
Jared Allen: “I want you to squeal like a pig”

 

Today the Vikings beat down the shockingly bad St. Louis Rams. But they gave up 400 yards of offense to those shockingly bad Rams. And yep, they sacked Aaron Rodgers 8 times last week in an emotional win over Green Bay, but Packer receivers also pulled down 384 yards worth of Aaron Rodgers’ passes.

 

Jared Allen had 4.5 of those 8 sacks, and I believe he has 4 fumble recoveries in the last two games, including one for a touchdown today. No Vikings hater can dispute that Allen plays with relentless effort and is as affective as anyone in the game at going for the ball. He is fast, basically a tight end playing defensive end – he never quits on a play, he is extremely fast on turf, and can make an inexperienced tackle look very foolish.

 

But he’s one-dimensional. Jared Allen is a speed rusher, and that’s it. He has no swim move, no spin move, and he’s too small to bull-rush. But in an NFL devoid of a surplus of quality d-ends, Jared Allen sticks out. Particularly after the high-profile Monday Nighter against the Packers, in which he played a backup Left Tackle for the first half of the game and then a 3rd-string LT for the 2nd half.

 

In week one against the Browns and Joe Thomas, he got handled. He had two tackles today against Alex Barron, who got benched last week at halftime. His fumble recoveries where there and were impactful, but he had little production in terms of pressuring the QB.

 

Adrian Peterson hasn’t broken 100 yards since Week One, and the Vikings are not currently ranked in the top 10 in rushing offenses. That is not what your numbers look like when you have the “best running back in football”.

 

Some people have argued that the Vikings would still be 5-0 without Brett Favre, but I wonder if they’d have won a game without him. In fairness, it’s equally worth pointing out that the Minnesota passing offense is ranked 18th. It will be interesting to look, at the end of the season, and see where exactly the Vikings peaked. I will put my money on Week 5.

 

 

THE OFFICIAL CINDERELLAS

 

Denver and Cincinnati both solidified their statuses as legit with wins over New England and Baltimore, respectively. Imagine if that week-one miracle victory by Denver over the Bengals were played next week instead of to open the season. It would be seen as a hard-fought, clutch game played by two good teams instead of the lucky-bounce crapfest that it was viewed as a month ago.

 

Kyle Orton.  online photo, no source available
Broncos QB Kyle Orton in various stages of undress

 

Kyle Orton is starting to get some respect, finally. And also finally, Bill Belichick is losing some of his. He’s 0-2 this season against rookie head coaches. What? The Great Hoodie is being outcoached by these young punks, one of them a former underling and another in his own division? What has the NFL come to?

 

 

BEARS HOMER SECTION: BYE-WEEK EDITION

 

Boy, the Bye Week is looking more and more welcoming by the hour. It looks like Chicago is going to need the extra time to game-plan for Atlanta, who waxed the 49ers today. Then after that is another tough road game in Cincinnati. I hope the Bears got healthier, smarter, and tougher this weekend while they sat on a Caribbean beach somewhere. I thought the first three weeks looked tough, but the next three are looking tougher.

 

 

contact email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com

 

 

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Fantasy Football 2009: Week 3 Start ‘ems and Sit ‘ems

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Start ‘em!

Willis McGahee – RB Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland – Willis has not only been getting the carries, but he’s been getting the carries in the red zone.  With solid games against the Chiefs and the Chargers under his belt, expect a scrimmage against the Browns to be no different.

Aaron Rodgers – QB Green Bay Packers at St. Louis – Rodgers has been consistent (at least on fantasy football paper) and should light up the Rams’ secondary.  Despite being sacked 6 times last week, he still managed to put up 261 yards and a touchdown.  Look for a few more scores out of the Packs’ passing game this week.

Fred Jackson – RB Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans – Freddie has shown what he can do as the starter and with Marshawn Lynch out for a bit longer, he won’t disappoint.  Though he won’t put up the numbers a lot of experts have predicted this week, his receiving ability does put him in the lime light.  The Bills will need to utilize Jackson to stand a chance against the surging Saints.

Felix Jones – RB Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina – With RB Marion Barber expected to be out (or limited at-best) this Sunday, expect Jones to pick up the load.  With more carries under his belt than usual, the speedster Jones should be explosive.  Expect big things this week against the Panthers.

Kyle OrtonQB Denver Broncos at Oakland – Okay, so Orton hasn’t been exactly pretty thus far, but he’s been a consistent scorer in the fantasy world.  Going up against Oakland, he should be able to make some plays and drop a few TD passes.  Look for another decent double-digit performance.

Felix Jones looks ready to take the load against Carolina in Week 3

Felix Jones looks ready to take the load against Carolina in Week 3

Sit ‘em!

LaDainian Tomlinson – RB San Diego Chargers vs Miami – LT sat last week and was expected to play this week against the Dolphins.  Though he may see a few snaps, he’s not 100% and should not be relied on heavily.  Sit him for another week and hope for the best.

Wes Welker - WR New England Patriots vs Atlanta – Welker sat last minute against the Jets and is expected to be a game-time decision.  Why risk a roster spot on an iffy-at-best prospect this week?  If you’re bent on a Patriot receiver and Edeleman is available for a quick waiver-wire snag, go for it.

TJ Houshmandzadeh - WR Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago – Ol’ TJ has been running his mouth this week about the Bears not looking his way during free agent season and promises to light them up.  It’s not going to happen.  P.S. Housh – try not being the third-best receiver on a crappy franchise and maybe your word will carry some weight.  Sit him until he proves he can keep up with his tongue.

Brian Westbrook – RB Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City -  Westbrook has been ailing, but still received his touches last week against the Saints.  Week 3 pits the Eagles against the lowly Chiefs and offers an exciting debut of a former gem in Mike Vick.  The Eagles aren’t concerned and will have distraction on their side.  Unless you simply need 4-6 points out of him this week, sit him until he’s ready to go at full steam.

Cedric Benson – RB Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh – Cincy has given the ball to Benson thus far and he’s delivered, but the Steelers are a different sort of defense.  He may approach the double-digit fantasy mark simply because he’s going to get the carries, but don’t expect another 141 yard performance.  If you’ve got options, and considering how low Benson was drafted – you should, then let him ride the pine for a week.

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Fantasy Sleepers 2009: Kyle Orton

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Kyle Orton throws at Broncos camp.  Online photo - no source available.

Kyle Orton throws at Broncos camp. Online photo - no source available.

Kyle Orton has the special luxury of being a sleeper pick this year and an underdog to boot.  No one expected much out of him in Chicago and no one expects stellar QB play out of him now, but in Denver now, he has options and a head coach known for making something out of nothing.

Despite an early injury last season, Orton managed to throw for just over 2,900 yards an 18 touchdowns for a Bears offense that was somewhat lacking in the passing game.  This year he adds the likes of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to his arsenal and looks poised to finally eclipse the 3k mark.

With a deep running back corps (Buckhalter, Moreno, Hillis, Jordan, etc, etc), look for the Broncos to play relatively balanced and give Orton the confidence he needs.  He’s not going to be Peyton Manning by any means but expect solid fantasy play (200 pts. in most leagues) and look for him as your number 2 option somewhere between rounds 8 thru 12.  With any luck, under McDaniels watchful eye, he’ll sneak into your number 1 spot halfway thru the season.

Check out our Preseason Fantasy Football 2009 Positional Rankings.

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