Pittsburgh: 12-4

Baltimore: 11-5

Cleveland and Cincinnati : 5-11

THE GOOD – Pittsburgh Steelers

What negative statements can you make about a Super Bowl winner?  Hard to find one; you’ll have to go off the field to get it.  But Ben Roethlisberger’s mysterious Achilles injury carries the weight of the season on it.  Without his light-on-stats leadership, the Steelers are still a decent offense with a very good defense.  But they wouldn’t come close to a repeat if the injury keeps Big Ben hobbled or off the field completely in 2009 (my projection is based on his coming back healthy by Week 1, which looks doubtful).

But there will still be reasons for optimism in Pittsburgh even if the Steelers fall short of defending their championship:  1^st round pick Evander Hood (DT/Missouri) is looking like he’ll fit in just fine; Mike Tomlin has the respect to be yet another prolific Steeler head coach; RB’s Rashard Mendenhall and Willie Parker will compete for yards; and despite the injury, Big Ben is still a young, capable, and ready to lead quarterback.  Hopefully soon he has a full off-season that doesn’t have some serious, awful distraction/lawsuit/horrific accident in it.  

THE BAD – Baltimore Ravens

Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are bad MF’s.  

The above statement deserves it’s own paragraph, which is why it got one.  And even though Bart Scott (bad in his own right) left the team to follow coach Rex Ryan to the New York Jets, there shouldn’t be too much concern – Terrell Suggs is still wearing that ambiguous Ravens shield on his jersey too, and he’s listed third on Baltimore’s Bad MF list.

You’ll notice that I put Ed Reed’s name first in that opening sentence and here’s why: Ed Reed had five (5) games last season in which he had two interceptions.  One game included a pick that was returned 107 yards for a touchdown.  One game was in the playoffs, on the road.  All five occurred Week 12 and later.

Without having known a single stat about Ed Reed before looking them up for this post, I was already under the impression that he was an excellent safety, maybe the best in the league and he would probably stand up against one of my favorites, Mike Brown.  Ed Reed’s stats literally made me feel ashamed -  for all of Brown’s memorable heroics, he’s never been healthy enough to be this influential or put up these kinds of numbers.  Ed Reed has 43 career interceptions in 8 NFL seasons. Mike Brown has 17 in 10.     

Now, Rod Woodson has 71 career picks in nine years and deserves top billing, but Ed Reed, based on 2008 alone, deserves to be in the conversation for Best Safety Ever.  His 41 tackles last year won’t do much for you, but less contact also keeps him on the field while playing one of the most injury-prone positions in sports.   And look at who was playing in front of him.  (clears throat)  

Yep, Ray Lewis and Co. will keep Baltimore relevant and watchable no matter what the growing pains of 2nd-year QB Joe Flacco may entail.  There is intense competition between running backs on this team, with Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain and Ray Rice all wanting carries.  I think I may have just made the Ravens my 2^nd team this year.   

THE UGLY – Cleveland & Cincinnati

Eric Mangini’s first season as Cleveland’s head coach should give the Browns some fresh air, but the team that was already 4-12 last year has now lost a few of their key starters: TE Kellen Winslow was traded to Tampa Bay, WR Donte Stallworth will sit on suspension all season, and starting LB’s Andra Davis and Willie McGinest have each gone their separate ways.  I suppose this is good for house-cleaning but it can’t good to build on, although in fairness Donte Stallworth was garbage anyway (17 catches, 170 yds, 1 TD in 2008). 

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The Browns used two of their three second-round picks on big wideouts Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi, but neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson have looked capable of allowing those rookies to have an impact this year.  Rookie center Alex Mack (21^st overall) is expected to log lots of playing time, if not start as a rookie.  Josh Cribbs will keep Browns fans coming to games with the chance of breaking it every play, but he’s only one man – QB’s Quinn and Anderson posted a combined 66.5 QB rating in 2008.  Although that number wasn’t helped by No. 1 WR Braylon Edwards, who led the league in drops. 

Any more than 5 wins this year will probably be considered a success for Mangini and should be.  The man has a lot to prove after being Favre’d in 2008.  I didn’t think he should have been fired, but serious criticism was warranted considering he dumped Chad Pennington (who went on to lead a division rival to a 11-5 turnaround from 1-15) for Brett Favre, who if he was any other quarterback would have been benched for the last 6 games.  But Mangini now understands what the Vikings apparently don’t – you can’t bench Brett Favre.  God won’t let you. 

If the Cincinnati Bengals can stay healthy they can win a couple more games than I think, but healthy hasn’t happened in a while.  Carson Palmer is coming off a season-ending elbow injury and has been hampered by a bad ankle.  But if he can stay upright in the pocket he should improve the Bengals by default.  And now that TJ Houshmandzadeh is out of the way and with Cedric Benson running the ball, Chad Ochocinco can flourish, right?  Right? 

Bottom line: Palmer needs to stay healthy or these cheeleaders will be the best thing Cincinnati fields this year (and they’re looking a little tired).  His career rating is just shy of 90, and most teams in the NFL would be lucky to have him.  You trade Carson Palmer for Tom Brady and Palmer would shatter the record books with Randy Moss and the protection that Tom Terrific has.  Meanwhile, Tom Brady in Cincinnati would be exactly what he was in college: a backup. 

NEXT UP: NFC EAST

In the initial aftershock stages of the rejection, of course, most Vikings fans had one of two immediate reactions: Either they popped a bottle of Scotch out on the lake in celebration, or popped a bottle of Scotch out on the lake in despair.  Much of the latter was compromised of the Vikings’ marketing department, whose 4^th-floor office windows had to be welded shut. 

But most of those fans who supported bringing Favre on board just crossed over to the other side, where the fans still hated him and refused to cheer for him in a Vikings uniform. So the team and it’s Zubaz sporting faithful actually moved on from the Favre Flirting episode pretty easily, and have passive-aggressively sighed in acceptance that Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels are what they have to deal with in 2009. 

Purple Bleeding Zubaz Faithful - Online Photo - No Source Available

The jury is out on their draft, just like everyone else.  Phil Loadholt seems like a steal in the 2nd round, and by chancing Percy Harvin in the 1st, they definitely added a new dynamic element to their offense. What Harvin does with the chance is up to him.  So far he’s pretty much lived up to his ‘flake’ and ‘feminine hygiene product’ labels. Historically, players like Percy Harvin make very little impact in their rookie seasons. I believe there will be more bloopers than highlights out of Parvin in 2009, although this is coming from a guy who has Devin Hester on his squad – the human blooper AND highlight reel of the NFL.  Hester is Kurt Rambis and Dominique Wilkins all rolled into one.

Loadholt has earned the coaching cliché of “he’s right where we expect him to be”, which is oftentimes code for “yeah, he’ll make the team but he’s not blowing us away”.  That certainly doesn’t mean he can’t become a solid, steady force, but a guy that big doesn’t play long, and you’d like him to be making an impact early.

Adrian Peterson’s influence when healthy isn’t necessary to detail to anyone on this continent, and Chester Taylor will continue to be the best 2^nd-string tailback in the NFL (someone has to do Purple Jesus’s blocking and pass-catching for him).  Practice-squad stud Albert Young from Iowa will ensure stability in the backfield, even in case of emergency.

Bernard Berrian needs to have his first 1000-yard season to justify his free-agent contract, but which of these QB’s seem capable of making any of their wideouts blossom into legit playmakers?  Berrian will most likely keep coming up with the periodical big play but fall short of ever drawing a consistent double-team.  Sydney Rice is doing okay in drills, but overall the offense is pretty sluggish.  

Luckily the defense and running game will rise to the occasion for Minnesota in 2009.  The outcome of the Williams-Wall’s Starcaps case will have a say, but Jared Allen, Antoine Winfield, E.J. Henderson and Chad Greenway should be able to hold down fort through a reasonably easy first-quarter of the season if need be. 

Minnesota Vikings Jared Allen - Online Photo No Source Available

Then there is the always-pending stadium dispute between Vikings ownership and the city of Minneapolis which has occasionally broken through the FavreFest media frenzy this offseason.  It can be argued that the Vikings have a pretty good case: the city says they don’t want to pony up to finance shiny new digs, and potential taxpayer reaction has been lukewarm.  But two new stadiums have been built in town over the last two years for the Twins and the Minnesota Golden Gophers, and somehow the Vikings got passed over.  Somewhere in Los Angeles, a Purple clock is ticking.

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