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NFL 2009 WEEK 10 PICKS: YTD – 85-44 (66%)

Nov 12

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Pro Football Picks | Comments off

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MARQUEE

 

NEW ENGLAND at INDIANAPOLIS:  When I picked the Colts to lose last week to the Texans, I did so because I honestly thought that Houston’s pass game would overwhelm Indy’s No. 1 overall defense, which I considered a mirage.  This week, the Patriots come to town, toting the No. 2 overall offense and the 4th-ranked defense.  So I don’t think I have a choice.

 

Tom Brady. online photo, no source available
Tom Brady on acid

 

In Weeks 6 and 7, leading into their Week 8 Bye, New England had the privilege of clobbering Tennessee and Tampa Bay in consecutive weeks, which I think inflates their offensive standings a bit.  And speaking of mirages, the average offense they’ve faced through 8 games is 19th, so how legit is Belichick’s defense?  The Ravens have the best offense they’ve beaten this year; they rank 10th.  They haven’t faced a top-5 passing attack like Peyton Manning’s since Rodney Harrison and Teddy Bruschi retired.

 

But I still like the Patriots.  The Colts got off easy last week playing Houston without TE Owen Daniels, who is the Texan’s ‘size-matters’ red-zone threat.  While the Colts are certainly an elite and surgical offense, they’ve struggled the last two weeks.  And there still seems like there is something soft about them, and that the Pats will have their way.  New England 34, Indy 24.

 

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH:  I like this game.  Clear lines are drawn, if you follow traditional NFL thought: Good vs. Evil = Steelers vs. Bengals.  But I like both of them.

 

I like Carson Palmer.  I like Chad Ochocinco.  I don’t like Cedric Benson, but I can appreciate how he fits in with the rest of the Cincy locker room.  As for the Steelers, I’m not a big fan of too many Pittsburgh players, but I do like Mike Tomlin.

 

Mike Tomlin. online photo, no source available

 

Tomlin is a rare mix of old school and new school, where the players love him but he also stresses toughness and accountability. Tomlin doesn’t just do that without being a d*ck, he makes it cool.  He sets the tone for his team.  He’s young enough to find common ground, yet he maintains his authority.  He’s straightforward and can be blunt, but without being pretentious like Parcells or Gruden.

 

I’ll take all that character and goodie-goodieness over the skeleton-closeted Bengals – Pittsburgh 30, Cincy 26.

 

PHILLY at SAN DIEGO:   I was disappointed in the Eagles last week not being able to take care of business at home against Dallas.  Donovan McNabb looked pedestrian, and when he stalls the whole offense stalls.  I’d like to think that a nice little trip to San Diego will serve McNabb and the Eagles well, because the Chargers have yet to beat a legit team.  It’s tough to classify the Eagles as legit, but they might be partially legit and I don’t like Phil Rivers.  Have I mentioned that I don’t like Phil Rivers before?

 

Eagles win a road squeaker, 24-21.

 

DALLAS at GREEN BAY:  Whatever, I don’t care about this game, because I’m not supposed to like either of these teams.  I kinda like the Packers, but that’s only because I hate the Vikings.  I want to pick the Packers, but I can’t see Aaron Rodgers not getting dropped at least five or six times in this game.

 

I’m picking Dallas because of their defense, which has given up more than 21 points only once so far in 2009. At the end of the day, they’re both either mediocre or overrated or both. Dallas 21, Packers 14.

 

MISMATCHES

 

A total of four games look to be either big blowouts or big upsets this week, and I’m picking the obvious favorite to win 34-10 in each of the following games:

 

DETROIT at MINNESOTA
NEW ORLEANS at SEATTLE
BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND
BUFFALO at TENNESSEE
DENVER at WASHINGTON, D.C. FOOTBALL FRANCHISE

 

I know, I snuck that Bills-Titans game in there towards the end. Even with the garbage status of both of these teams, it should be a rout for Tennessee, who brings the 2nd-ranked running game against the Bills’ league-worst run defense.

 

And I know there’s been a lot of chatter about Denver “being exposed” the last two weeks, but they played two good teams, and they’re a squad with a rookie head coach and a first-year QB – they’re going to be fine.  The R*dsk*ns will be just the remedy they need.

 

COULD BE GOOD, COULD SUCK, PROBABLY BORING

 

JACKSONVILLE at NY JETS: The Jets are so hard to pick this season. They’re hard to pick in their own division – they’ve beaten the Pats and lost to the Bills. They lost to Miami twice. The Jags are the same story. They beat Houston and lost to Tennessee. Seattle beat them 41-0. That’s why I’ll pick the Jets, who in reality will probably lose this week, only to go to Foxboro next week and win. J-E-T-S 26, Jags 13.

 

TAMPA BAY at MIAMI: I gotta say the Bucs grew on me last week. I like Josh Freeman. He’s big, he looked confident, he looked accurate. He didn’t look scared. Not being scared won’t make you a good QB (look at Jay Cutler), but it helps if you have other intangibles, which I think Freeman might have. I’ll still take Miami, because Freeman can’t help Tampa’s defense, which is giving up over 160 rushing yards a game. Dolphins 24, Bucs 17.

 

ATLANTA at CAROLINA: Carolina leads the league in turnovers with 24. Atlanta hasn’t lost to a bad team yet, and they won’t this week. Falcons 28, Panthers 17.

 

SEATTLE at ARIZONA: Yeah, I just can’t seem to find the enthusiasm for this one. Neither Arizona’s drubbing of my own team last week or Arizona’s Super Bowl appearance do a thing for me. I know Seattle is probably still terrible enough to lose big in this one, but who knows? I’ll say Seattle for the hell of it, S’Hawks 23, Cards 22.

 

WEEK 10 TOILET BOWL: K.C. at OAKLAND: Uhh…I’ll say the Raiders. A score isn’t really too necessary.

 

contact email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com

 

 

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NFL 2009 WEEK 3 PICKS – YTD RECORD 23-9 (72%)

Sep 23

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Pro Football Picks | Comments off

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Okay, so I went from 15-1 in Week 1 to 8-8 in Week 2. Week 3 doesn’t look to be much easier; almost every conclusion drawn comes strictly from opponents played – there are no comprehensive answers through 2 weeks of the season. But I vow to redeem myself. There are a couple of easy games, so let’s start there.

GIMMIE No. 1 – CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE: What’s to think about? Joe Flacco has a 96.1 rating with 5 touchdowns through 2 games. Brady Quinn has a 66.9 rating with 1 TD. With Baltimore playing at home, there needs to be no other reason to pick the Ravens. Baltimore, 27-12.

GIMMIE No. 2 – GREEN BAY at ST. LOUIS: Green Bay losing to Cincinnati was unfathomable. But even after allowing 5 sacks to DE Antwan Odom (6 sacks overall), and allowing Cedric Benson 144 yards (including three 12 yard rushes on the Bengals’ opening drive), Green Bay came close to winning. The Pack recovered an onside kick, drove to the Cincy 10-yard line, then attempted a fake snap when a false start penalty ended the game with less than 10 seconds left. Defensive snafus for GB included allowing a 3rd and 34 to be converted on a screen pass, and playing LB Nick Barnett a total of 0 snaps in the 4th quarter. Those same mistakes won’t be made; Packers, 21-10.
Packers-Bengals. online photo, no source available

WEEK 3 TOILET BOWL: WASHINGTON at DETROIT: It’s time. Detroit must, at some point, awaken from their slumber and beat an NFL team. The R*dsk*ns are low on karma after 6th round rookie Robert Henson insulted working class fans for booing his garbage football team via Twitter. The Lions, on the other hand, have exerted more effort in losing 2 games than the R*dsk*ns did in beating 78th rated St. Louis. Lions fans rejoice: your seasons of discontent mercifully come to a close this Sunday. Lions 17, D.C. Football Franchise 13.

SAN FRANCISCO at MINNESOTA: In many ways these two teams are mirror images of each other: both have very, very good running backs, both have mediocre quarterbacks, both have pass protection issues, and both precariously lead their divisions. Both of these teams will see their first significant challenges in terms of quality opponents. SF owns the first real linebacker that the Vikings have faced in Patrick Willis. Minnesota provides the first real offensive threat in Adrian Peterson that coach Mike Singletary has had to deal with. Two major differences – rushing defense, with the 49ers 3rd overall and MN 15th; and health. Vikings LB E.J. Henderson and the Purple Jebus are both hampered with back injuries to varying degrees. I want to pick San Francisco, so I will. San Fran, 24-21.

ATLANTA at NEW ENGLAND: Atlanta rides into Foxboro high as a kite and New England enters the game looking like Eyore from Winnie the Pooh. ATL QB Matt Ryan makes his homecoming leading a team 9th in points scored and 18th in yards. In contrast, Tom Terrific leads the team that is 9th in yards, but 23rd in points. And although Brady took no sacks versus the Jets in Week 2, he was hassled to the tune of 7 hits and countless hurries, forcing him into key incompletions and poor decision-making. Alas, the Pats will remind everyone that they are still a very formidable opponent. New England 26, Falcons 19.

TENNESSEE at NY JETS: Toughest choice of the week for me, the Jets enter a home game ranked 1st overall in total defense while the Titans gave up 34 points to the Houston Texans last week. Tennessee sports the 32nd ranked pass defense so far, after allowing Matt Schaub to throw 4 TDs and no picks in Week 2. The most telling stat? The next touchdown the New York Jets allow on defense will be their first. It is hard for me to pick against Tennessee because of their 2008 rep, but I will, even though it seems too trendy and easy: Jets 17, Titans 14.

KANSAS CITY at PHILADELPHIA: Philly QB Kevin Kolb is likely to get his 2nd start of the season against a winless Chiefs team. Never mind who the Eagles played last week, it’s irrelevant. All you need to know is that Kansas City, despite dominating total yards (409-166), time of possession (38:39 to 21:21), and first downs (25-11), still lost to the Raiders at home, 13-10. Not helping KC was going 0-2 in the red zone, 9 flags for 70 yards, and 2 turnovers to Oakland’s zero. Losing to the Raiders at home means you don’t beat Philly in Philly. Eagles, 20-9.

NY GIANTS at TAMPA BAY: I am ready to pick the Giants based solely on their heroic spoiling of Dallas’ new-stadium opener. 110,000 people went home very unhappy deep in the heart of Texas. I tried to find some stat that says the Bucs will challenge, but they won’t. This one comes down to sheer offensive star power: Mario Manningham and Steve Smith combined for 20 catches and 284 yards against the Cowboys. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, only got 18 carries for 57 yards out of its supposed talent-laden RB corps. Don’t over think this one. Giants win, 34-13.

JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON: Normally division games would lead one to the conclusion that it will be a mildly interesting and scrappy contest. And while this may turn out to actually be the case, I can’t find the energy to dig up relevant stats for either of these teams. I do know that Houston passed for 4 touchdowns on Tennessee last week and that Jacksonville has lost 2 close games to quality opponents. My intuition says that Jacksonville is better than they’re viewed and that Houston is worse. Jacksonville in a road upset: 22-18.

NEW ORLEANS at BUFFALO: I will not pick against the Saints again this season until they let me down. Let the record show that I have learned my lesson – New Orleans has scored 12 TDs in 2 games, and will certainly not be cowed by Dick Jauron’s 28th ranked defense. Although Buffalo ranks 6th in scoring to the Saints first, the disparity in points is cannot be ignored (93-57). Saints win easy, 37-20.

CHICAGO at SEATTLE: Seattle WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh has chosen this week to open his mouth. Sayeth Housh: “Man, the Bears ain’t even holler at me…so I’m going to show [them] Sunday.” Interesting for a player who currently ranks 3rd on his team in receptions and with zero TDs – despite being a handsomely-paid free-agent. He is currently being outpaced by the luminescent 2nd year TE John Carlson. On top of that, QB Matt Hasselbeck, among others, is not likely to play with a fractured rib. Injured Seahawks roll-call: OT Sean Locklear, CB Josh Wilson, OT Walter Jones, WR Deion Branch, and MLB Lofa Tatupu. Chicago RB Matt Forte is desperate for a statistically relevant performance – his mouth will water at a Seattle defense who gave up 209 yards to Frank Gore in Week 2. I don’t even need to mention that the Bears are coming off an emotional, confidence-lifting defeat of the NFL Champs. Bears 28, Seahawks 12.

MIAMI at SAN DIEGO: I would love to pick a team I like (Miami) over a team I don’t like (the Chargers), but I am not going to. It’s possible the Dolphins’ offense will simply be gassed after being on the field for 45:07 on Monday night. While the defense will be fresh, San Diego’s offense will be pressured to perform. Miami’s brand of throwback, low-risk offensive production ain’t gonna fly against the speedy Chargers defense. As much as I don’t like it, SD 23, Dolphins 16.

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI: Pittsburgh goes on the road for the 2nd week in a row against a team that it is supposed to beat – Steelers fans can rejoice in Chicago mustering a measly 44 yards rushing at home in the rain, but should be weary of how drunken loser Cedric Benson gashed the 3-4 defense of Green Bay for 144 yards. But Pittsburgh isn’t about to lose a division game against an inferior opponent regardless of who that opponent beat last week. Cincy still sucks and will show it. Steelers, 24-13.

WEEK 3 TOILET BOWL (II) – DENVER at OAKLAND: Denver once again qualifies for flushable status, drawing the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are without the supposedly important OG Robert Gallery with a broken leg and won’t be able to win with another 107 yard performance from QB JaMarcus Russell, who languishes with a 46.6 QB rating on the season. Kyle Orton isn’t Superman, but he is good enough to beat Oakland. Sheriff McDaniels 16, Sheriff Al Davis 10. Denver becomes the NFL’s crappiest 3-0 team.

INDIANAPOLIS at ARIZONA: Many “insiders” are going to pick the Cardinals in this game, and will show their foolishness. Don’t listen. The Colts won last week despite only having the ball for a little more than 14 minutes. Peyton Manning proved he can beat you if you blitz him, and also if you don’t. Arizona is not likely to produce an adequate defensive scheme with which to defeat the elder Manning brother. My first inclination is to predict a shootout, but I am quickly stifled by the Colt’s #1 pass defense ranking (139 yards per game); AZ ranks 18th. Indy wins easy, 31-17.

MONDAY NIGHT

CAROLINA at DALLAS: Dallas again takes the field in their spanking new stadium, but this week they face an opponent seemingly determined to squander virtually every opportunity presented to them. Although PWT QB Jake DelHomme proved he wasn’t completely worthless against Atlanta in Week 2, he still qualifies for JaMarcus Russell status, quagmiring along with a 45.3 QB rating (actually, JaMarcus Russell qualifies for Jake DelHomme status). Don’t look for that to improve against a Dallas team who needs a win worse than anybody in the NFL. Yes, Tony Romo was GARBAGE in the Cowboys’ home debut, throwing for 127 yards and 3 INTs. But Marion Barber made it respectable, averaging 7 yards per carry, along with Felix Jones’ 13.7 yards per carry. Dallas held the formidable Giant’s rushing attack to 97 yards while running for 251 of their own. Cowboys 24, Panthers 10. (Tony Romo has to work off a $1,300,000,000 new- stadium debt, as he is now dating Jerry Jones instead of Jessica Simpson).

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NFL 2009 WEEK 2 PICKS – YTD RECORD 15-1 (94%)

Sep 16

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Pro Football Picks | Comments off

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What a difference a week makes.  FlyingPigskin.com went 15-1 on opening weekend, when very little was actually known about how the teams matched up.  Now the conundrum: do we rely on what we saw, knowing that some teams are better – and some teams are worse – than they actually played?  Stats can reveal only so much, but we’ll do our best:

OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY: Both of these teams played much better than expected against teams who would still be considered superior even if they had beaten them.  Oakland played very physical against San Diego but couldn’t hang on in the last minute, and Kansas City stood up to a very physical Baltimore team and lost a respectable game without their expensive free-agent QB Matt Cassel.  Cassel is still listed as questionable, but his knee has gotten better and he may play.  Either way, Kansas City wins a tough divisional game against another lower-tier team also looking for respect: Chiefs, 24-17.

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE: Tennessee lost an odd game to Pittsburgh on the phony-opener last Thursday night – they held the Steelers to 36 yards rushing, a pathetic 1.6 per carry average.  But they gave up 321 yards to Ben Roethlisberger, who while he is usually clutch and steady, isn’t typically this prolific against good defenses.  In the end though, the score read like a lousy game in December, 13-10 Pittsburgh.  So I don’t know what to think, but there’s no way Tennessee loses this game.  Titans, 27-13.

NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS: I’m really tempted to pick the Jets to win this one, and here’s why:  The Pats looked shaky last week against a Bills team who I think is no match for New York; the game is in the Meadowlands, which will be as hostile an environment the Pats will see all year; Rex Ryan will have no qualms with trying to blitz Tom Brady into submission; and the Pats’ defense looks to have taken a big step back from previous years.  But I’m picking the Patriots, and here’s why:  Mark Sanchez played lousy Houston last week and inflated his performance; Belichick and Brady will be ready for the Jets’ blitz packages; and although New England looked shaky, they shouldn’t have to throw 53 times again.  Despite the enormous number of dropbacks, Brady completed 39 passes.  Damn System-QB’s.  Patriots 28, Jets 17.

CINCINNATI at GREEN BAY: Green Bay continues it’s early-season homestand versus non-playoff teams and wins again, without too much fuss.  Yep, Cincy was the victim of a miracle last week against Denver, but at the time of the miracle they were winning by the score of 7-6.  Carson Palmer should have had easy pickings against a bad Denver defense, instead he threw for less than 250 yards with 2 picks and no TD’s.  Green Bay 30, Bengals 10.

ARIZONA at JACKSONVILLE: Oh how the mightier-than-they-should-have-been have fallen.  Arizona looked moderately retarded against the Singletary-led 49ers with Kurt Warner back in interception form.  The Jags lost a nail-biter at the Colts on Sunday with MJD being the only gem in a box of rocks.  The defending NFC champs are hurting at WR with Steve Breaston and Anquan Boldin nursing injuries, but will be determined not to start in the cellar.  Look for MJD and the Jaguars to roll early with Warner and company fighting for the late comeback win on the road.  Arizona 23, Jacksonville 19.

MINNESOTA at DETROIT: I’ll give it to Detroit that they put up some points against New Orleans, but I don’t think the Saints even cared.  Even when the Lions closed the score to 27-38 late in the third they weren’t any kind of threat.  Drew Brees and 5 different receivers scored at will, and Adrian Peterson will do the same.  Could be another record-breaker for the Purple Jesus, especially on that new, smooth, flat artificial surface.  Plus rookie Matt Stafford faces a tough defense looking to hit someone.  I wonder if he remembers Jared Allen vs. Green Bay and Houston last year…  Vikings 31, Lions 13.

NEW ORLEANS at PHILADELPHIA: Donovan McNabb’s injury holds the key to this game, plain and simple.  With him, the Eagles probably are still hard to pick to win, but it’s certainly possible.  The fact that the Saints sacked Matt Stafford only once last week will encourage the Eagles to suit up McNabb; they don’t want to lose a home game and they will if Donovan sits.  McNabb goes and is enough for the Eagles to squeak by, 24-21.

CAROLINA at ATLANTA: This game comes at a bad time for the Panthers, who lost their 2nd-string QB to injury after yanking Jake Delhomme (4 INT’s, fumble for a TD)  last week, and are now forced to start him again and hope that he bounces back.  Fat chance, and that’s not their only worry: they gave up 185 yards on the ground to Philly at home, and the last time they faced the Falcons’ Michael Turner he ran for 4 scores.  Atlanta rolls, 37-7.

ST. LOUIS at WASHINGTON: Washington needs a win and St. Louis has probably packed it in already.  The Rams have no one to watch on this team (at least the Lions have some offense): QB Marc Bulger might be okay but has no way to show it, and RB Steven Jackson is supposed to be good but I don’t know why.  I nominate the Rams for contraction, and will continue to do so until they show that they give a crap about winning games.  D.C. in a yawner, 17-6.

SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO: Seattle will get a taste of their own medicine, facing a rowdy and hostile Bay-Area crowd who is rabid for their tough-looking squad.  Seattle will get out-punched and out-smarted, and will look like a team who played an opening cupcake, which they did.  Despite shutting out St. Louis, the Seahawks had three turnovers at home.  San Fran becomes everyone’s new favorite in a win that will be talked up as more meaningful than it is:  49ers 27, Seattle 14.

TAMPA BAY at BUFFALO: Tampa Bay isn’t getting much respect after losing to Dallas at home last week, but perhaps they deserve more.  After all, they ran for 174 yards, Byron Leftwich threw for 276, they had no turnovers and won the time of possession.  Their defense got shredded, but the Bills’ offense shouldn’t scare anyone too much.  Their 24 points vs. New England were kind of a mirage, the defense scored one TD and the Bills’ offense was 4-10 on third down.  Tampa Bay pulls the upset and Buffalo loses their 2nd straight by one point, 21-20.

WEEK 2 TOILET BOWL:  CLEVELAND at DENVER: Do I really have to pick/talk about this game?  Really?  Only the hardcore will be watching this one; there isn’t too much worth tuning in for on the ol’ satellite dish.  Denver wins because they’re at home, 13-7.

BALTIMORE at SAN DIEGO: The Chargers looked roughed up last week against Oakland, who shouldn’t have looked as good as they did.  Princess Tomlinson wasted no time finding the injury report (ankle) and becoming San Diego’s most chiseled cheerleader.  He’ll pass on the skirt though, and Phil Rivers will get punched in the mouth like he deserves (but not by his boyfriend Shawne Merriman).  Ravens on the road, 24-14.

PITTSBURGH at CHICAGO: I do think Jay Cutler and Matt Forte will both have bounce-back games, and I do think there is potential for a letdown for the Steelers on the road.  This is yet  another huge game for the Bears, who will try to prove losing the perpetually over-valued Brian Urlacher isn’t a big deal.  The Bears’ defensive line could be a tough match for Pittsburgh, who gave up 46 sacks last year.  The Chicago defense as a whole only gave up 226 yards total, and Nate Vasher gave up 50 of them himself on the game-clinching TD.  Lovie Smith desperately wants to avoid a potential Cutler-meltdown after an 0-2 start.  All this being said, Pittsburgh still wins, because the Steelers are the Steelers and the Bears are the Bears.  Final: 20-17, Black and Gold.

NY GIANTS at DALLAS: Wow, good Sunday-nighter as the Giants play their second divisional game already.  The key will be the Giants’ young WR’s versus the Dallas secondary, and if the Cowboys can stop the NY running attack.  They were helpless against Tampa Bay on the ground, but Tony Romo was able to strike quickly and stay ahead.  These division games with two good teams usually split along who is at home, and so this will go.  ‘Boys, 26-23.

MONDAY NIGHT

INDY at MIAMI: Both these teams looked shaky last week, not giving me a whole lot of confidence in either one.  But Miami had no one who looked very good, and the Colts did, with Manning passing for 301 and Reggie Wayne hauling in 162 of them.  Indy averaged a pretty pathetic 2.3 yards per rush, and should probably stop trying and just go shotgun on every play.  Indy is a good team who started slow last year but hung in there, and the Dolphins could very well have been an aberration.  Colts 24, Dolphins 10.

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