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AT THE HALF: BRAD CHILDRESS: STILL A MORON

Sep 20

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Armchair QB | Comments off

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Seriously – Vikings fans have to hate this guy. There is little else on this planet more irritating than a guy who really believes he’s the smartest guy in the room, and in reality he’s an arrogant, bumbling fool.

The Vikings will win this game, but they’re doing everything they can to tempt fate. Including, but not limited to, an annoying amount of gadget attempts to fool the Lions. That’s the Detroit Lions.  Things like multiple attempts at the “PurpleCat”, Childo’s version of the Wildcat, which already isn’t fooling anyone.  He put Tarvaris Jackson out on the punt-coverage team, to try and trick the Lions into thinking that the Vikings were trying to trick them.  Why put your gimmicks on tape against the Lions?  Why wouldn’t you save them for a team that will be difficult to beat?

Brad Childress. online photo, no source available

Brad Childress: “Don’t tell me I’m not a genius.”

Hey Brad, you’ve got Adrian Peterson, Brett Favre, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, Chester Taylor and Visanthe Shiancoe – how about you just try playing football instead of trying too hard to impress everyone with your brilliant creativity?  Cute is for the cheerleaders, Major Dad.

Other Halftime Notes: Tennessee and Houston are putting up points like crazy; Houston’s up 24-21 going into the half.  That’s unexpected.

Green Bay and Cincy are looking like their exact opposites from last week, with all offense and no defense.  Tied at 3 TD’s a piece at halftime.

Mark Sanchez and the Jets had -2 passing yards at last check, and that one is getting pretty sleepy, with only filed goals put up so far.

The Vikes are losing 10-7 at half, but will pull this one out, as the Lions will find a way to lose.  The offensive line is looking like a liability for Minnesota so far though: 4 sacks against Cleveland last week and 2 already today against Detroit.  Favre won’t be doing them much good if he can’t take a 7-step drop all year. (UPDATE: Make that 3 sacks today)

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NFL 2009 WEEK 2 PICKS – YTD RECORD 15-1 (94%)

Sep 16

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Pro Football Picks | Comments off

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What a difference a week makes.  FlyingPigskin.com went 15-1 on opening weekend, when very little was actually known about how the teams matched up.  Now the conundrum: do we rely on what we saw, knowing that some teams are better – and some teams are worse – than they actually played?  Stats can reveal only so much, but we’ll do our best:

OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY: Both of these teams played much better than expected against teams who would still be considered superior even if they had beaten them.  Oakland played very physical against San Diego but couldn’t hang on in the last minute, and Kansas City stood up to a very physical Baltimore team and lost a respectable game without their expensive free-agent QB Matt Cassel.  Cassel is still listed as questionable, but his knee has gotten better and he may play.  Either way, Kansas City wins a tough divisional game against another lower-tier team also looking for respect: Chiefs, 24-17.

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE: Tennessee lost an odd game to Pittsburgh on the phony-opener last Thursday night – they held the Steelers to 36 yards rushing, a pathetic 1.6 per carry average.  But they gave up 321 yards to Ben Roethlisberger, who while he is usually clutch and steady, isn’t typically this prolific against good defenses.  In the end though, the score read like a lousy game in December, 13-10 Pittsburgh.  So I don’t know what to think, but there’s no way Tennessee loses this game.  Titans, 27-13.

NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS: I’m really tempted to pick the Jets to win this one, and here’s why:  The Pats looked shaky last week against a Bills team who I think is no match for New York; the game is in the Meadowlands, which will be as hostile an environment the Pats will see all year; Rex Ryan will have no qualms with trying to blitz Tom Brady into submission; and the Pats’ defense looks to have taken a big step back from previous years.  But I’m picking the Patriots, and here’s why:  Mark Sanchez played lousy Houston last week and inflated his performance; Belichick and Brady will be ready for the Jets’ blitz packages; and although New England looked shaky, they shouldn’t have to throw 53 times again.  Despite the enormous number of dropbacks, Brady completed 39 passes.  Damn System-QB’s.  Patriots 28, Jets 17.

CINCINNATI at GREEN BAY: Green Bay continues it’s early-season homestand versus non-playoff teams and wins again, without too much fuss.  Yep, Cincy was the victim of a miracle last week against Denver, but at the time of the miracle they were winning by the score of 7-6.  Carson Palmer should have had easy pickings against a bad Denver defense, instead he threw for less than 250 yards with 2 picks and no TD’s.  Green Bay 30, Bengals 10.

ARIZONA at JACKSONVILLE: Oh how the mightier-than-they-should-have-been have fallen.  Arizona looked moderately retarded against the Singletary-led 49ers with Kurt Warner back in interception form.  The Jags lost a nail-biter at the Colts on Sunday with MJD being the only gem in a box of rocks.  The defending NFC champs are hurting at WR with Steve Breaston and Anquan Boldin nursing injuries, but will be determined not to start in the cellar.  Look for MJD and the Jaguars to roll early with Warner and company fighting for the late comeback win on the road.  Arizona 23, Jacksonville 19.

MINNESOTA at DETROIT: I’ll give it to Detroit that they put up some points against New Orleans, but I don’t think the Saints even cared.  Even when the Lions closed the score to 27-38 late in the third they weren’t any kind of threat.  Drew Brees and 5 different receivers scored at will, and Adrian Peterson will do the same.  Could be another record-breaker for the Purple Jesus, especially on that new, smooth, flat artificial surface.  Plus rookie Matt Stafford faces a tough defense looking to hit someone.  I wonder if he remembers Jared Allen vs. Green Bay and Houston last year…  Vikings 31, Lions 13.

NEW ORLEANS at PHILADELPHIA: Donovan McNabb’s injury holds the key to this game, plain and simple.  With him, the Eagles probably are still hard to pick to win, but it’s certainly possible.  The fact that the Saints sacked Matt Stafford only once last week will encourage the Eagles to suit up McNabb; they don’t want to lose a home game and they will if Donovan sits.  McNabb goes and is enough for the Eagles to squeak by, 24-21.

CAROLINA at ATLANTA: This game comes at a bad time for the Panthers, who lost their 2nd-string QB to injury after yanking Jake Delhomme (4 INT’s, fumble for a TD)  last week, and are now forced to start him again and hope that he bounces back.  Fat chance, and that’s not their only worry: they gave up 185 yards on the ground to Philly at home, and the last time they faced the Falcons’ Michael Turner he ran for 4 scores.  Atlanta rolls, 37-7.

ST. LOUIS at WASHINGTON: Washington needs a win and St. Louis has probably packed it in already.  The Rams have no one to watch on this team (at least the Lions have some offense): QB Marc Bulger might be okay but has no way to show it, and RB Steven Jackson is supposed to be good but I don’t know why.  I nominate the Rams for contraction, and will continue to do so until they show that they give a crap about winning games.  D.C. in a yawner, 17-6.

SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO: Seattle will get a taste of their own medicine, facing a rowdy and hostile Bay-Area crowd who is rabid for their tough-looking squad.  Seattle will get out-punched and out-smarted, and will look like a team who played an opening cupcake, which they did.  Despite shutting out St. Louis, the Seahawks had three turnovers at home.  San Fran becomes everyone’s new favorite in a win that will be talked up as more meaningful than it is:  49ers 27, Seattle 14.

TAMPA BAY at BUFFALO: Tampa Bay isn’t getting much respect after losing to Dallas at home last week, but perhaps they deserve more.  After all, they ran for 174 yards, Byron Leftwich threw for 276, they had no turnovers and won the time of possession.  Their defense got shredded, but the Bills’ offense shouldn’t scare anyone too much.  Their 24 points vs. New England were kind of a mirage, the defense scored one TD and the Bills’ offense was 4-10 on third down.  Tampa Bay pulls the upset and Buffalo loses their 2nd straight by one point, 21-20.

WEEK 2 TOILET BOWL:  CLEVELAND at DENVER: Do I really have to pick/talk about this game?  Really?  Only the hardcore will be watching this one; there isn’t too much worth tuning in for on the ol’ satellite dish.  Denver wins because they’re at home, 13-7.

BALTIMORE at SAN DIEGO: The Chargers looked roughed up last week against Oakland, who shouldn’t have looked as good as they did.  Princess Tomlinson wasted no time finding the injury report (ankle) and becoming San Diego’s most chiseled cheerleader.  He’ll pass on the skirt though, and Phil Rivers will get punched in the mouth like he deserves (but not by his boyfriend Shawne Merriman).  Ravens on the road, 24-14.

PITTSBURGH at CHICAGO: I do think Jay Cutler and Matt Forte will both have bounce-back games, and I do think there is potential for a letdown for the Steelers on the road.  This is yet  another huge game for the Bears, who will try to prove losing the perpetually over-valued Brian Urlacher isn’t a big deal.  The Bears’ defensive line could be a tough match for Pittsburgh, who gave up 46 sacks last year.  The Chicago defense as a whole only gave up 226 yards total, and Nate Vasher gave up 50 of them himself on the game-clinching TD.  Lovie Smith desperately wants to avoid a potential Cutler-meltdown after an 0-2 start.  All this being said, Pittsburgh still wins, because the Steelers are the Steelers and the Bears are the Bears.  Final: 20-17, Black and Gold.

NY GIANTS at DALLAS: Wow, good Sunday-nighter as the Giants play their second divisional game already.  The key will be the Giants’ young WR’s versus the Dallas secondary, and if the Cowboys can stop the NY running attack.  They were helpless against Tampa Bay on the ground, but Tony Romo was able to strike quickly and stay ahead.  These division games with two good teams usually split along who is at home, and so this will go.  ‘Boys, 26-23.

MONDAY NIGHT

INDY at MIAMI: Both these teams looked shaky last week, not giving me a whole lot of confidence in either one.  But Miami had no one who looked very good, and the Colts did, with Manning passing for 301 and Reggie Wayne hauling in 162 of them.  Indy averaged a pretty pathetic 2.3 yards per rush, and should probably stop trying and just go shotgun on every play.  Indy is a good team who started slow last year but hung in there, and the Dolphins could very well have been an aberration.  Colts 24, Dolphins 10.

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Adrian Peterson vs. Michael Turner: Who’s All-World?

Sep 6

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Armchair QB | Comments off

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The attributes these two backs possess are enviable to any team in the NFL:  both Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner are freaks.  Turner was invaluable to rookie QB Matt Ryan’s progress in 2008, and the Minnesota Vikings would have literally been nothing without Peterson carrying the ball for the last two seasons.  But let’s see who is actually better – and Vikings fans, don’t scoff until you hear the argument.

Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson. online photo, no source available

Jim Brown was correct when he told Peterson in a recent interview that no one since Brown himself has combined sheer athleticism, power, and size the way Peterson does.  No man that big (6′1″, 220) should be able to move that fast, change direction that fluidly, and make would-be defenders look that silly.  Adrian Peterson performs in a way that if he played in a city like Dallas, Chicago or New York, he would be a multi-national superstar on par with LeBron James and Tiger Woods, not “just” an American household name like he is now.

Adrian Peterson. online photo, no source available

Michael Turner, by contrast, is shorter at 5′10″ but brings a load with at 256 lbs.  The thing that makes Turner remarkably effective is his quickness, an ability to accelerate and drive through a hole, and keep his momentum forward when tacklers make contact.  Most of the time Turner carries several tacklers much bigger than he is 4 or 5 extra yards.  He does this better than anyone else in the league, which makes him deadly in the red-zone and in short-yardage situations; he’s a fullback with halfback speed. “Wrecking Ball” is a word often used to describe Michael Turner, which normally doesn’t co-inside with a word like “Burner”, but that’s what the Atlanta tailback brings to the table.

michael turner. online photo, no source available

Enough with the superlatives, let’s get down to stats:  Adrian Peterson rushed for 61 more yards than Turner in 2008 (1,760 to 1,699), and showed his efficiency was superior as well, with a 4.8 per carry average compared to Turner’s 4.5.  Both yardage numbers are outstanding, and neither can be touched by any other back in the league – including that princess LaDanian Tomlinson, the 2000’s version of Emmitt Smith.  But Turner scored points where AP simply didn’t: 17 TD’s to Peterson’s 10.  You’re telling me that the best back in the league only put up 10 scores?

 

The argument is there that Turner’s body and style better suits him for the red-zone.  But you can’t in one breath say that Adrian Peterson is a man of freakish size, speed, agility and power and then in the next breath say that he’s not quite fit for short-yardage, goal-line situations.  The best running back in the league should be handed the ball at any spot on the field and be able to show everyone why there is no one better than he is. The best running back in the league shouldn’t have weaknesses or be a liability, ever.  Walter Payton, Jim Brown, and even the afore-mentioned Ms. Smith and Ms. Tomlinson didn’t get taken off the field in any situation, including passing situations.

 

The best running back in the NFL should also never be a liability when it comes to ball-security.  Peterson’s fumbling issues are well-documented, with 9 of them last season alone.  Michael Turner doesn’t have 9  fumbles in his 6-year career.  This stat speaks for itself, and Peterson’s fans, if they are honest, will acknowledge that this is a completely legitimate knock on his reputation, and not one that Turner shares.  The fumbling, along with serious pass-blocking problems, warrant criticisms on Peterson’s game – and what about Michael Turner can you knock?  Not much, if anything.  The guy gives his team tough yards and tough scores in every single situation.  Peterson, to put it bluntly, doesn’t catch or block.  And at times, like in the head-to-head matchup with Turner in ‘08, Peterson is flat-out Rashaan-Salaam-ish (76 yards, 3 fumbles, 0 TD’s in week 16 – at home).

Adrian Peterson. online photo, no source available.

Okay, enough AP bashing – if someone woke up from a 10-year coma and this post was the first thing they read, they’d think that Peterson was garbage and Turner was a superstar.  Not the case.  One element you can’t quantify with stats – or argue – is that Adrian Peterson not only carried more of his team’s burden on his back than Turner did, he carried it with defenses stacked against him.  Neither Gus Frerotte or T-Jack gave the man room to run, therefore it simply cannot be argued that anyone did more with less than Peterson.

 

Not only that, he did it with a style that won’t be duplicated anytime soon, or probably ever.  As Vikings’ play-by-play announcer Paul Allen puts it, sexy counts in the NFL, and if both guys were up for grabs in a draft next year, Peterson would be taken first every time.  He puts butts in seats, period.  If you’re gonna go watch either guy run against the worst defense in the league, who would you pick?  The Purple Jesus will take you for a better ride than Burner Turner will, even if Turner might actually put up better numbers.

Adrian Peterson. online photo, no source available.

For all of his flaws, Peterson jump-starts the adrenal glands of every person in the stadium when he breaks one loose – and while I honestly think that Michael Turner’s game stands to be more productive in the end, no. 28 for the Vikings needs to be appreciated for his raw talent while it’s just that: raw.

 

Take a look at Chicago’s Gale Sayers: he only played six seasons and was a first-ballot lock for the Hall of Fame.  His highlight reel and style still is unequaled – and that’s what we’re seeing with Adrian Peterson. Before you forget, take that DVR recording you’ve been saving of his first game against the Bears and burn it to a DVD.  Because like Sayers, the pure magic will likely be gone after that first knee injury.  And he won’t be among the select few like Barry Sanders, Jim Brown and Sweetness who never suffer a serious injury, so enjoy his game for what it is.  Unique, artistic, and utterly memorable.  Appreciate it, study it, remember it.  His highlights in only two seasons are laughably superior to that of Smith or Tomlinson, the two all-time leaders in TD’s.  So the 10 scores in 2008 can be excused.  Shaun Alexander scored 28 in one season, and no one even remembers that guy 4 seasons later.

 

So okay, the scoffers were right.

adrian peterson. online photo, no source available

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AFC North 2009 Projections

Aug 24

Posted by Nick Thomas, NFC North resident in Armchair QB | Comments off

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The AFC North division gave us the 2008 AFC Championship.  If you don’t immediately recall the game, then I highly suggest watching this NFL.com video of the highlights.  The Steelers and the Ravens met for the 3rd time of the season and pummeled each other in a vicious game that was one of the most rewarding in recent memory.  If you live in Ohio however, it’s tough being an NFL fan these days:

 

Pittsburgh: 12-4

Baltimore: 11-5

Cleveland and Cincinnati : 5-11

 

 

THE GOOD – Pittsburgh Steelers

 

What negative statements can you make about a Super Bowl winner?  Hard to find one; you’ll have to go off the field to get it.  But Ben Roethlisberger’s mysterious Achilles injury carries the weight of the season on it.  Without his light-on-stats leadership, the Steelers are still a decent offense with a very good defense.  But they wouldn’t come close to a repeat if the injury keeps Big Ben hobbled or off the field completely in 2009 (my projection is based on his coming back healthy by Week 1, which looks doubtful).

Santonio Holmes. online photo, no source available

 

But there will still be reasons for optimism in Pittsburgh even if the Steelers fall short of defending their championship:  1st round pick Evander Hood (DT/Missouri) is looking like he’ll fit in just fine; Mike Tomlin has the respect to be yet another prolific Steeler head coach; RB’s Rashard Mendenhall and Willie Parker will compete for yards; and despite the injury, Big Ben is still a young, capable, and ready to lead quarterback.  Hopefully soon he has a full off-season that doesn’t have some serious, awful distraction/lawsuit/horrific accident in it.  

 

THE BAD – Baltimore Ravens

Ed Reed. online photo, no source available

 

Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are bad MF’s.  

 

The above statement deserves it’s own paragraph, which is why it got one.  And even though Bart Scott (bad in his own right) left the team to follow coach Rex Ryan to the New York Jets, there shouldn’t be too much concern – Terrell Suggs is still wearing that ambiguous Ravens shield on his jersey too, and he’s listed third on Baltimore’s Bad MF list.

 

You’ll notice that I put Ed Reed’s name first in that opening sentence and here’s why: Ed Reed had five (5) games last season in which he had two interceptions.  One game included a pick that was returned 107 yards for a touchdown.  One game was in the playoffs, on the road.  All five occurred Week 12 and later.

Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis. online photo, no source available

 

Without having known a single stat about Ed Reed before looking them up for this post, I was already under the impression that he was an excellent safety, maybe the best in the league and he would probably stand up against one of my favorites, Mike Brown.  Ed Reed’s stats literally made me feel ashamed -  for all of Brown’s memorable heroics, he’s never been healthy enough to be this influential or put up these kinds of numbers.  Ed Reed has 43 career interceptions in 8 NFL seasons. Mike Brown has 17 in 10.     

 

Now, Rod Woodson has 71 career picks in nine years and deserves top billing, but Ed Reed, based on 2008 alone, deserves to be in the conversation for Best Safety Ever.  His 41 tackles last year won’t do much for you, but less contact also keeps him on the field while playing one of the most injury-prone positions in sports.   And look at who was playing in front of him.  (clears throat)  

Ray Lewis. online photo, no source available
 

Yep, Ray Lewis and Co. will keep Baltimore relevant and watchable no matter what the growing pains of 2nd-year QB Joe Flacco may entail.  There is intense competition between running backs on this team, with Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain and Ray Rice all wanting carries.  I think I may have just made the Ravens my 2nd team this year.   

 

 

THE UGLY – Cleveland & Cincinnati

 

Eric Mangini’s first season as Cleveland’s head coach should give the Browns some fresh air, but the team that was already 4-12 last year has now lost a few of their key starters: TE Kellen Winslow was traded to Tampa Bay, WR Donte Stallworth will sit on suspension all season, and starting LB’s Andra Davis and Willie McGinest have each gone their separate ways.  I suppose this is good for house-cleaning but it can’t good to build on, although in fairness Donte Stallworth was garbage anyway (17 catches, 170 yds, 1 TD in 2008). 

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Donte Stallworth. no source available, online photo 

 

The Browns used two of their three second-round picks on big wideouts Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi, but neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson have looked capable of allowing those rookies to have an impact this year.  Rookie center Alex Mack (21st overall) is expected to log lots of playing time, if not start as a rookie.  Josh Cribbs will keep Browns fans coming to games with the chance of breaking it every play, but he’s only one man – QB’s Quinn and Anderson posted a combined 66.5 QB rating in 2008.  Although that number wasn’t helped by No. 1 WR Braylon Edwards, who led the league in drops. 

 

Any more than 5 wins this year will probably be considered a success for Mangini and should be.  The man has a lot to prove after being Favre’d in 2008.  I didn’t think he should have been fired, but serious criticism was warranted considering he dumped Chad Pennington (who went on to lead a division rival to a 11-5 turnaround from 1-15) for Brett Favre, who if he was any other quarterback would have been benched for the last 6 games.  But Mangini now understands what the Vikings apparently don’t – you can’t bench Brett Favre.  God won’t let you. 

 

If the Cincinnati Bengals can stay healthy they can win a couple more games than I think, but healthy hasn’t happened in a while.  Carson Palmer is coming off a season-ending elbow injury and has been hampered by a bad ankle.  But if he can stay upright in the pocket he should improve the Bengals by default.  And now that TJ Houshmandzadeh is out of the way and with Cedric Benson running the ball, Chad Ochocinco can flourish, right?  Right? 

 Bengals cheerleaders. online photo, no source available

Bottom line: Palmer needs to stay healthy or these cheeleaders will be the best thing Cincinnati fields this year (and they’re looking a little tired).  His career rating is just shy of 90, and most teams in the NFL would be lucky to have him.  You trade Carson Palmer for Tom Brady and Palmer would shatter the record books with Randy Moss and the protection that Tom Terrific has.  Meanwhile, Tom Brady in Cincinnati would be exactly what he was in college: a backup. 

 

NEXT UP: NFC EAST

 

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Favorite NFL speedsters of all time . . .

Aug 14

Posted by Bob Noyes in Armchair QB | 1 Comment

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In the wake of Michael Vick’s signing with the Philadelphia Eagles, there’s been an onslaught of Vick highlight reels and they have been, to say the least, impressive. It’s almost amazing what that man was capable of during the prime of his career.

That string of highlights involving Vick running around opposing defenses had me reminiscing about the good ol’ days and the initial advent of created-players in football video games, players that you created to simply run circles around opposing outside linebackers on sweeps and option plays. Being somewhat of a purest in my video football, however, my created players didn’t make the cut very often or were scaled back to fit the mold of an average athlete with room to improve.

I’ve always loved speed (and unlearned attributes), however, and the recent buzz around Vick has gotten me thinking about some of my favorite NFL speedsters:

Bo Jackson

Bo Jackson was a bad-ass, plain and simple, and had a reel with the best of them.

Darrell Green
Green means go and I will always remember that Darrell Green meant go. He was recorded as running a 4.09 40 time. That’s ridiculous.

Deion Sanders

Deion was “Primetime” and definitely put on a show.

Additional favorites, you may ask?

Willie Gault - The Bears’ quick WR had a gold medal to go with his Super Bowl ring.

Randy Moss – I’ll wager that if you doubt Randy’s quickness, he’s already behind you.

Devin Hester – His rookie season returns put him on the list by themselves.  Anything else is just fodder.

And then there’s always Dickerson, Walker, etc. etc. etc. – The list could go on and on, but these are just a few of my favorite speedsters to sit and watch.

All videos above are from YouTube and though I cannot claim responsibility for them, please enjoy.

Cheers.

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