GREEN BAY at DETROIT: Poor Lions fans. As rumors swirl that commish Roger Goodell is hatching plans to pull the plug on the Lions’ Thanksgiving tradition because of the eternal ineptitude of this franchise, the teams’ only watchable players both are forced to sit because of injury.

You now have permission to consume.

If Matt Stafford and Cal Johnson were able to go today, I think Detroit may have a shot at winning this game, particularly with the Packers’ DE/LB Aaron Kampman and corner Al Harris being put down for the rest of the year this past week. Alas, as it stands with familiar Green Bay foe Daunte Culpepper at the helm, the Pack’s Aaron Rodgers should be able to outscore the Lions’ offense by himself. No chance, Detroit. Better luck next Thanksgiving, if there is indeed one for you. Packers 31, Lions 13.

(UPDATE: Stafford and Johnson are actually both starting today, and it’s a fairly courageous effort. Culpepper is pissed. Lions still lose though, but I am posting a mid-first-quarter revised score prediction: Pack 31, Lions 21)

OAKLAND at DALLAS: Someone in the NFL’s Scheduling Department should have to answer for this game. I know I’m an NFC North homer, but I find the Lions-Packers game significantly more titillating than this one, and that’s saying quite a bit, because Lions-Packers has a pretty low level of titillation going for it. I just don’t see how the league planned on marketing this game when they decided to schedule it in the off-season. Insert cliched turkey-induced sleeping joke here. Cowboys 24, Raiders 12.

This looks much more appetizing than Raiders-Cowboys.

NY GIANTS at DENVER: At Week 5, this looked like a premier matchup, and at Week 12, it looks like I could find something else to occupy my time with. Denver’s last win was October 19th, and what a flop it’s been since – as of the evening of the Broncos’ last victory, they had beaten San Diego, New England and Dallas in three consecutive games and looked every bit of legitimate. Six weeks later, it doesn’t look too promising after 4 straight losses. New York won its first game in 42 days last week against Atlanta. Blecch.

What makes this one really tough to pick is that these two teams are mirror opposites. Denver has maintained it’s defensive relevance and the Giants have done the same on offense (both ranked 7th overall). But the Bronco offense and the Giant defense have likewise tumbled to 25th and 24th respectively, so what are we to think?
Don’t know, honestly. I’ll take good offense and bad defense over bad offense and good defense – New York Giants 27, Denver 17.

I wish the Happiest of Thanksgivings to everyone out there, and I want to send a special wish to my dear friend Charlie, whose loved one is resting comfortably after a successful emergency heart surgery yesterday. It is with a lump in my throat that I say that there is much to be thankful for today. Peace and Love to all.

contact email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com

New York and Philadelphia: 11-5

Dallas: 10-6

Washington: 7-9

THE NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS

On paper, the Giants defended their Super Bowl title admirably in 2008 with a 12-4 record, and improved on both offense and defense by 50 points or more.  But that doesn’t tell the story accurately.  Red-hot through 12 games last year, the Giants’ only loss came to Cleveland in an odd MNF-game in October.  Otherwise they were playing like a champion determined to repeat.  Then came the Plaxico Burress incident.

It’s easy to downplay Burress’ impact on the season, as he had led the Giants in receiving yards only twice in the season (weeks 1 & 2), but losing him in late November clearly had a negative effect: after the 9mm discharge and subsequent suspension/PUP listing, New York went 2-3 and lost a home playoff game to rival Philadelphia.  The loss made it 0-2 for quarterback Eli Manning in home playoff games (he’s posted dismal 35.0 and 40.7 QB ratings in home postseason games in his career).  Burress may have underwhelmed in most of 2008, but after he shot himself, an element was definitely missing from the Giants’ offense.

Rookie Hakeem Nicks, who had 144 yards and two TD’s in the Giants’ most recent preseason game, looks to replace Burress.  And although the Giants lost one of their two 1000-yd rushers from 2008 in Derrick Ward (signed a FA deal with Tampa Bay), Brandon Jacobs looks ready to carry the load with Ahmad Bradshaw.  Eli Manning signed a huge $97 million contract, which raised a couple eyebrows around the league.  Sure, he slayed the Goliath ’07 Patriots in the Super Bowl, but there’s the afore-mentioned crappy home playoff record, not to mention that New York finished 1-4 last season.    The Giants are hoping that both Manning and WR Mario Manningham (4 catches, 26 yards, 0 TD’s in 2008) both improve their games in 2009.

THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The two big stories involving the Eagles this off-season were the signing of Mike Vick and the death of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson in July.  Vick will likely have little impact on the 2009 season – by contrast, how the team reacts to Johnson’s death will be far more important to the Eagles’ record.  

Andy Reid wisely promoted long-time assistant Sean McDermott to defensive coordinator, who looks to continue Johnson’s legacy of fierce, well-disguised blitzes and general defensive tenacity.  Personnel-wise, the Philly D suffered an early setback with an ACL injury to MLB Stewart Bradley, the teams’ leading tackler in 2008, and have struggled with the decision of who should replace him.  But if 2008 proved anything, it was the Eagles’ ability to overcome adversity.

At week 12 in 2008, the Eagles sat at 5-5-1.  In the previous two weeks, Philly had suffered an embarrassing tie to Cincinnati and followed it with a 36-7 beatdown at the hands of the Ravens.  They looked finished.  But they won 4 of their last 5, and if it hadn’t been for the Cardinals, Philadelphia would have claimed Cinderella status in the ’08 playoffs, winning road games in Minnesota and New York before losing a tough NFC Championship in Arizona, 32-25.  Donovan McNabb played well, throwing 375 yards and 3 TD’s, but Larry Fitzgerald torched the defense to the tune of 9 catches, 152 yards and 3 touchdowns. 

That made it 4 losses and 1 victory in the conference championship game under Reid and McNabb, overshadowing the fact that the offense had scored a team record 416 points in the regular season under Marty Mornhinweg.  Rookie wideout DeSean Jackson had a solid season and the Eagles followed suit, drafting another 1^st-round receiver, Jeremy Maclin out of Missouri.  Look for McNabb to duel it out with Eli Manning for NFC East QB supremacy this year.

THE DALLAS COWBOYS

Disclaimer:  I don’t like the Cowboys.  Never have.  I celebrate every year in which they extend their streak without a playoff win (13 seasons and counting).  I despise the undue attention they get and the very mention of Jerry Jones’ name puts my teeth on edge.  But that’s why I feel the 10-6 prediction is very accurate and objective.  I tried to find more losses in there, I really did, but I couldn’t.  Maybe in reality they’ll split with Washington instead of sweeping, but I doubt it. 

Tony Romo: “Yeah, I’m crying.”

Booting Terrell Owens from their shiny new locker room should unify this team, and if Roy Williams really is worth a damn then he’ll show it this year.  He may have to wait for a sort-of broken collarbone to heal, but even if it is fractured he should be back by the time the games really start to count.

This team took a big step back in 2008 from a 13-3 ‘07 season, but T.O. leaving should be worth a one-win improvement from last year.  Tony Romo dumping Jessica Simpson should provide stability.  The Cowboys are relieved to have gotten the following headlines out of the way before week one:

     -       Jessica Simpson dumped by Tony Romo, reportedly sad

     -       Jessica Simpson puts a hex on the Cowboys via the internets

     -       Jessica Simpson’s lingerie didn’t do it for Tony Romo

     -       Jessica Simpson’s cheerleader outfit didn’t do it for Tony Romo

     -       Jessica Simpson’s partying is what ended the relationship

     -       Jessica Simpson calls her dog a lesbian

Tony Romo: “Yep, I’ve had about enough.”

However, after Dallas’ season-squashing, week 17 44-6 defeat at the hands of the Eagles, a couple non-Jessica-Simpson storylines have taken place, both involving problems with team buildings: the practice facility collapsed in a storm during the team’s rookie minicamp, injuring an assistant coach; and the Texas-sized video board in the Cowboys’ new stadium has caused some controversy.  Neither story should make impatient Dallas fans forget that the ‘Boys were 1-3 in the last month of 2008. And that Tony Romo is now 5-8 for his career in the month of December.  And that Marion Barber finished the year with a 3.7 per-carry average and fumbled 7 times.  And that that Wade Phillips is still the head coach.  And that Dallas’ last playoff win was in 1996.  The beat goes on, deep in the heart of Texas…

THE WASHINGTON D.C. FOOTBALL FRANCHISE

Like division rival New York, Washington started the season fast at 6-2, and withered down the stretch, finishing 2-6 and losing 4 of their last 5 games.  They made headlines by signing free-agent D-tackle Albert Haynesworth to a $100 million deal, and by doing everything they could to alienate starting QB Jason Campbell.  You’d think after attempting to trade for Jay Cutler, and then attempting to trade up in the draft to get SoCal QB Mark Sanchez, Campbell would pout.  But he hasn’t, and has left it up to his performance this season to prove he belongs.  He’ll need more than the 13 TD passes he had in 2008 to do so, but he is a stable, steady guy with competence and upside, and could take a big step this year.  But somehow I have them losing a game more than last year and finishing last at 7-9.

Clinton Portis: Eccentric individual 

The team went as Clinton Portis went last year – during an 8-week stretch between weeks 4 and 12, Portis ran for 120+ yards six times, and Washington won 5 of them.  But both Portis and the club fizzled after that, with Portis reaching as much as 80 yards in only one game the rest of the way.

Perhaps if the team finally decided to change mascots they might have some good karma coming their way.