Posts Tagged peyton manning

NFL WEEK 10: TRUST NO ONE

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Can we trust the Patriots to hold on to a lead anymore? Bill Belichick out-thunk himself with his 4th-and-2 call from his own 28.  The rationale is that he thought his offense had a better shot of picking up 2 yards on 4th down than his defense did of stopping Manning.  Even if they failed to convert the 4th-and-2, it would have the same result as punting, right?  That’s a stretch, and it gave the Colts the ball 29 yards from a touchdown with over 2 minutes to play. There was also a bunch of oddly-burned timeouts sprinkled in there.

 

Indy Colts.  online photo, no source available

 

Failing to convert the 4th-and-2 wasn’t really ever considered, which is in Belichick’s nature and part of what makes him the arrogant cutthroat that he is.  Maybe karma bit him in the ass on this one, and that’s bound to happen.  But if the Patriots’ defense is this unreliable to their head coach, the Pats have problems that will have implications later. 

 

For now, the New England loss caps off what was a terrible week for my record.  Discretion will be necessary from here on out.

 

Denver and Atlanta couldn’t trust backups, after each lost high-performing starters in the 2nd quarter.  When Denver QB Kyle Orton left his game vs. the R*dsk*ns with an ankle injury, he was 11-18 for 193 yards and 2 TD’s.  When Atlanta RB Michael Turner left his game vs. the Panthers with an ankle injury, he had 111 yards on 9 carries.

 

M. Turner.  online photo, no source available

 

Orton’s replacement was Chris Simms, who posted a 7.5 passer rating (as opposed to Orton’s 134.5).  Atlanta was already down counter-puncher Jerious Norwood, so something named Jason Snelling filled in, and did okay.  61 yards and a touchdown, but Atlanta fell apart after the injury and was already getting torched on defense.

 

Dallas couldn’t trust Tony Romo, whose stats aren’t great or awful, but his only INT came after a 14 play, 79-yard drive to the Green Bay 1, where he was picked off by Charles Woodson just short of the goal line to all but seal the loss.  Crappy quarterbacks throw picks in the redzone when the stakes are high and your team is still in the game (ahem…jaycutler).

 

Tony Romo.  online photo, no source available

 

Aaron Rodgers earned some trust after righting the ship against the Cowboys, and even the offensive line got in on the act, scattering 4 sacks against a good Dallas defense.  Green Bay’s own defense swarmed Romo all day, sacking him 5 times and hitting him hard.  It was a fun game to watch considering the score was 3-0 Packers going into the 4th quarter.

 

clay matthews.  online photo, no source available

 

Pittsburgh couldn’t trust their special teams, which gave up a return score for a revolting 7th straight game.  The 96-yarder in the 2nd quarter by the Bengals’ Bernard Scott was the difference in the field-goal fest, which featured virtually no offensive ball movement.  8 kicks went through either set of uprights, and 6 of them were 32 yards or longer.  Cincy’s Cedric Benson and Steeler Troy Polamalu were both knocked out of the game.

 

The Jets couldn’t trust their 4th-ranked defense to keep Jacksonville’s 21st-ranked offense from scoring a field goal to win the game.  Philly couldn’t trust it’s offense, which could only manage 23 points in San Diego despite getting 450 yards and two TD’s on 35 completions from Donovan McNabb.

 

We almost couldn’t trust New Orleans against lowly St. Louis, who fought back in the game against a banged-up Saints defense in the second half.  The Saints’ stable of running backs were able to save the day, but N.O. is hurting right now in the secondary and the Saints’ date with New England in two weeks just started looking a little tougher for Drew Brees & Company, who committed 3 turnovers today.

 

drew brees.  online photo, no source available

 

Tampa bay already didn’t trust its defense, who did set up a potential game-winning TD by picking off Chad Henne on a horrific pass deep in Dolphin territory.  But then that same defense let the same QB march almost 80 yards in just over a minute to win the game with a chip-shot field goal.  Josh Freeman turned in his second solid performance in as many starts, and has Tampa Bay feeling optimistic for the future.

 

And finally, if you can trust anything in the NFL right now, as much as it pains me in a profound and intimate way to say it, you can trust in Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings offense. It’s something that I have to come to grips with, and it might as well happen sooner rather than later.  I know they played the Lions today, and I know the final score of 27-10 isn’t even that big of a blowout, but Minnesota made it look effortless.

 

AP looked very healthy and well rested (18 carries for 133, 2 TD) after the bye week, galloping through tackles and cutting with precision.  Acceleration, burst, violence, anger.  Wait until he plays an opponent that matters.

 

adrian peterson.  online photo, no source available

 

Brett Favre made Sydney Rice look like some kind of freak combination of Randy Moss and Jerry Rice, which he isn’t, but he was against Detroit.  This game wasn’t close, ever.  Minnesota left points on the board, which is an issue, but it doesn’t matter.  This team isn’t f—ing around anymore, and Favre will have these bastards ready to play the big games.

 

The Viking pass defense will need to improve, and Antoine Winfield will likely have to be in top form to get past this New Orleans offense in the playoffs, and Jared Allen may have to show up for a game not against Green Bay (1 tackle, 0 sacks on Sunday), but this offense is serious.  Brett Favre is currently projected to finish the season with almost 3900 yards, 32 TD’s and 6 picks.  Brady and Manning might throw for more yards, but at 40, leading a team that was a mess offensively last season to a dominating regular season in 2009, Favre still has to be the favorite to win it.

 

After typing that last sentence, I am going to go drink beer, eat chicken wings, and cry, all at the same time.

 

contact email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com

 

 

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AFC South 2009 Predictions and Holy $#%& the season starts tomorrow

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Curse these Thursday openers!  Like many, I don’t consider it the real start of the season.  The NFL season starts on a Sunday at noon – that’s how we do it in fly-over country.  But because of this early start, I’ve gotta poop out my AFC South projections tonight, when I have neither the energy nor the sobriety.  A significant chunk of the evening was also eaten up by the President’s Health-Care address (wife dutifully stands and applauds, sits down, then shouts ‘LIAR!’).  

 

DON’T PUT MONEY ON THESE PICKS:

 

Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans: 13-3

Houston Texans: 6-10

Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11

 

 

THE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:

My 12-year old, football-astute cousin Cody used to proudly talk about how tough the AFC South was, and about how good his Colts were for routinely tossing division rivals.  This was back when the Jags used to make the playoffs, and even Houston had a .500 record with very little problem.  But while his Colts have survived, the strength of the lower half of the division has waned, leaving easy pickings four times a year for Tennessee and Indy.

 

I love safeties.  In fact, I’ve been known to make the argument that Walter Payton, had he played strong safety, would have been the best ever, and that even as spectacular as he was at tailback, he deprived the NFL kingdom of many devastating, violent collisions on twig-ish wideouts and QB’s in the 80’s.  So then Bob Sanders is my guy, right?  He sure is, especially since we were both at the U of Iowa at the same time.  But Big-Game Bob was injured most of the year in 2008, only appearing in six games with 1 pick and 37 measley tackles.  So the Colt’s pass-D suffered, right?  Wrong. 


Bob Sanders.  Online Photo, No source available

Bob Sanders: Oft-injured Bad MF


They only allowed an eye-popping 6 passing TD’s all season, even more impressive when you consider most opponents were forced into the pass in an effort to keep up with Peyton Manning.  The Colts’ weaknesses were in the run game on both sides – second to last in rushing yards, and 24th in rushing defense.  And yet, bucking all “conventional wisdom” that says in the NFL you must run and stop the run, they went 12-4.  They lost a fluke game to the Chargers in the playoffs and called it a season, and are now hoping Bob Sanders returns soon to help against the run (he isn’t sure when).  They’ve added d-line depth to help, and the ‘defense by offense’ approach will still have teeth for the Colts.

 

 

THE TENNESSEE TITANS:

The antithesis of the Colts, Tennessee ran it down your throat and built brick walls at the line of scrimmage on defense.  Lendale White was a red-zone machine, putting up 15 TD’s, despite rushing for what can only be described as “way less” yards than rookie Chris Brown. 

 

The Titans.  online photo, no source available

 

But Albert Haynesworth departed for big bucks in the nation’s capital, and they’ve replaced him with guys who I’ve never heard of and I’m not looking up again for this post.  And yet, the only losses I have for them are at New England, at the Colts, and Miami at home, which is a total gut feeling.  Kerry Collins enters his 16th NFL season, not bad for a guy considered a washed-up headcase about a decade ago.  Although the 73 career rating isn’t a Hall of Fame number.

 

THE HOUSTON TEXANS:

I really want someone to tell me why the NFL calculates it’s team rankings on both sides of the ball by yards gained or allowed.  If you’re separating each ranking by passing or running, the statistic is relevant; a team uses either method to move up and down the field.  But when you’re talking overall offensive or defensive rankings, shouldn’t that be determined by points scored/allowed? 

 

Exemplifying this flaw is the Houston Texans (8-8 in 2008): Houston is ranked 3rd in total offense because of yards per game, but 17th in points scored.  You can move the ball all day up and down the field, but if you make garbage red-zone decisions, or if long drives can’t be finished off with TD’s, it really doesn’t matter.  Points win games last time I checked, and although the Texans gained huge yards over the season, they couldn’t finish. 

 

Matt Schaub.  online photo, no source available

Matt Schaub – before unwashed, inbred yokel Jared Allen put two dirty hits on his knees


I also now realize why the Minnesota Vikings insisted on bringing in Brett Favre over Sage Rosenfels:  Matt Schaub (a pretty impressive 3000+ yards in only 11 games) had 380 pass attempts to Sage’s 174, and yet they both threw 10 interceptions.  Ouch.  In fairness to Rosenfels, 4 of them came against Baltimore, who last year would have made John Wayne quiver with fear and just chuck it up to avoid getting hit. 

 

Bottom line for Houston is that their defense was 27th -in points allowed - last year, and they did nothing to fix it.  Name-brand LB’s Cato June and Rosey Colvin had a cup of coffee with the team in the spring, but neither stuck after stale camp and preseason performances.  They also signed Rex Grossman. 

 

(Cough.) 

 

WR Andre Johnson is most likely the only reason to watch this really boring team.

 

THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS:

What happened to this team?  11-5 in 2007, they crashed back to Earth last year, finishing 5-11.  Maurice Jones-Drew will continue to be adorable to female fans, and will probably hover around the same 1400 all-purpose-yard season.  It won’t mean much though, as the Jags were forced to cut Scarface-wannabe No. 1 WR Matt Jones and replaced him with Torry Holt, who plays even older than the 33 he is.  Receiver Troy Williamson had 5 catches in 2008 for…(trails off as the stat is pointless)

 

Troy Williamson.  online photo, no source available

 

Jax has got to pick it up in every phase to have the traditional bad-to-good pendulum swing we’re used to.  Letting QB David Garrard get sacked another 42 times will not help.

 

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