Pittsburgh: 12-4

Baltimore: 11-5

Cleveland and Cincinnati : 5-11

THE GOOD – Pittsburgh Steelers

What negative statements can you make about a Super Bowl winner?  Hard to find one; you’ll have to go off the field to get it.  But Ben Roethlisberger’s mysterious Achilles injury carries the weight of the season on it.  Without his light-on-stats leadership, the Steelers are still a decent offense with a very good defense.  But they wouldn’t come close to a repeat if the injury keeps Big Ben hobbled or off the field completely in 2009 (my projection is based on his coming back healthy by Week 1, which looks doubtful).

But there will still be reasons for optimism in Pittsburgh even if the Steelers fall short of defending their championship:  1^st round pick Evander Hood (DT/Missouri) is looking like he’ll fit in just fine; Mike Tomlin has the respect to be yet another prolific Steeler head coach; RB’s Rashard Mendenhall and Willie Parker will compete for yards; and despite the injury, Big Ben is still a young, capable, and ready to lead quarterback.  Hopefully soon he has a full off-season that doesn’t have some serious, awful distraction/lawsuit/horrific accident in it.  

THE BAD – Baltimore Ravens

Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are bad MF’s.  

The above statement deserves it’s own paragraph, which is why it got one.  And even though Bart Scott (bad in his own right) left the team to follow coach Rex Ryan to the New York Jets, there shouldn’t be too much concern – Terrell Suggs is still wearing that ambiguous Ravens shield on his jersey too, and he’s listed third on Baltimore’s Bad MF list.

You’ll notice that I put Ed Reed’s name first in that opening sentence and here’s why: Ed Reed had five (5) games last season in which he had two interceptions.  One game included a pick that was returned 107 yards for a touchdown.  One game was in the playoffs, on the road.  All five occurred Week 12 and later.

Without having known a single stat about Ed Reed before looking them up for this post, I was already under the impression that he was an excellent safety, maybe the best in the league and he would probably stand up against one of my favorites, Mike Brown.  Ed Reed’s stats literally made me feel ashamed -  for all of Brown’s memorable heroics, he’s never been healthy enough to be this influential or put up these kinds of numbers.  Ed Reed has 43 career interceptions in 8 NFL seasons. Mike Brown has 17 in 10.     

Now, Rod Woodson has 71 career picks in nine years and deserves top billing, but Ed Reed, based on 2008 alone, deserves to be in the conversation for Best Safety Ever.  His 41 tackles last year won’t do much for you, but less contact also keeps him on the field while playing one of the most injury-prone positions in sports.   And look at who was playing in front of him.  (clears throat)  

Yep, Ray Lewis and Co. will keep Baltimore relevant and watchable no matter what the growing pains of 2nd-year QB Joe Flacco may entail.  There is intense competition between running backs on this team, with Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain and Ray Rice all wanting carries.  I think I may have just made the Ravens my 2^nd team this year.   

THE UGLY – Cleveland & Cincinnati

Eric Mangini’s first season as Cleveland’s head coach should give the Browns some fresh air, but the team that was already 4-12 last year has now lost a few of their key starters: TE Kellen Winslow was traded to Tampa Bay, WR Donte Stallworth will sit on suspension all season, and starting LB’s Andra Davis and Willie McGinest have each gone their separate ways.  I suppose this is good for house-cleaning but it can’t good to build on, although in fairness Donte Stallworth was garbage anyway (17 catches, 170 yds, 1 TD in 2008). 

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The Browns used two of their three second-round picks on big wideouts Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi, but neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson have looked capable of allowing those rookies to have an impact this year.  Rookie center Alex Mack (21^st overall) is expected to log lots of playing time, if not start as a rookie.  Josh Cribbs will keep Browns fans coming to games with the chance of breaking it every play, but he’s only one man – QB’s Quinn and Anderson posted a combined 66.5 QB rating in 2008.  Although that number wasn’t helped by No. 1 WR Braylon Edwards, who led the league in drops. 

Any more than 5 wins this year will probably be considered a success for Mangini and should be.  The man has a lot to prove after being Favre’d in 2008.  I didn’t think he should have been fired, but serious criticism was warranted considering he dumped Chad Pennington (who went on to lead a division rival to a 11-5 turnaround from 1-15) for Brett Favre, who if he was any other quarterback would have been benched for the last 6 games.  But Mangini now understands what the Vikings apparently don’t – you can’t bench Brett Favre.  God won’t let you. 

If the Cincinnati Bengals can stay healthy they can win a couple more games than I think, but healthy hasn’t happened in a while.  Carson Palmer is coming off a season-ending elbow injury and has been hampered by a bad ankle.  But if he can stay upright in the pocket he should improve the Bengals by default.  And now that TJ Houshmandzadeh is out of the way and with Cedric Benson running the ball, Chad Ochocinco can flourish, right?  Right? 

Bottom line: Palmer needs to stay healthy or these cheeleaders will be the best thing Cincinnati fields this year (and they’re looking a little tired).  His career rating is just shy of 90, and most teams in the NFL would be lucky to have him.  You trade Carson Palmer for Tom Brady and Palmer would shatter the record books with Randy Moss and the protection that Tom Terrific has.  Meanwhile, Tom Brady in Cincinnati would be exactly what he was in college: a backup. 

NEXT UP: NFC EAST

Here’s my 2009 NFC North predictions.  I shocked and dismayed myself:

Green Bay: 12-4
Chicago & Minnesota: 10-6
Detroit: 5-11

It’s all about the future in Detroit, and likely will be for a while. That’s why they pretty much aren’t included in the following accessible, ADD-friendly, loosely-organized bullet-points:

COMMON WINS/LOSSES:

• The NFC East will hand key home losses to Minnesota and Chicago. This won’t bode well for either teams’ chances for the postseason after losing potential tiebreakers to New York and Philadelphia.

• AFC North matchups should split evenly between losses to the Steelers and Ravens, and wins against the Bengals and Browns. Everyone beats up on Detroit and the NFC West this year, like usual.

DOUBTABLE PICKS:

• Bears winning at Seattle, Week 3. I picked ‘em because they’ll be 0-2 and will be pissed or desperate or both, and the Seahawks, while I really know nothing about them, seem iffy. Seattle is always tough at home, but the Bears play them well.

• Minnesota winning at Arizona, Week 13: The Vikes beat up the Cardinals late in the season in the desert last year. They’re not likely to do it two years in a row. I picked Minnesota because Brett Favre and Tarvaris Jackson threw a combined 10 touchdowns against the Cards in 2008.

• Green Bay winning at Arizona, Week 17: The Cardinals could be finished, could be breathing at this point. Green Bay may have it wrapped up in the North and lay down to an Arizona team trying to break the Super-Bowl-loser stigma of missing the playoffs. But if these two teams either both need it or both don’t, the Pack will win.

TURNING POINTS:

• The Packers will take control with a big win over Dallas at home in Week 10, coming off an important road win in Tampa the week before. The Vikings and Bears both have much more losable road games in the NFC South; Chicago will make it two straight seasons losing in Atlanta, and the Metrodomers will get roughed up in Carolina in Week 15.

• Both Green Bay and Minnesota should be red-hot early. The Vikings should win their first five games and I’ve got GB starting a ridiculous 11-1. I know how it sounds, but take a look for yourself. I see one loss, in Minnesota, through Week 12. There’s three losses somewhere in the last 5 games, but it won’t matter by then.

• The Bears’ hard start could derail Jay Cutler’s first season in Chicago if tempers flare. They open on Monday Night in Green Bay, then follow with their home opener against Pittsburgh. Then there’s the toss-up in Seattle. They could be starting 0-3 and wanting to lynch their new QB before catching a gimme with Detroit. But if the three losses are close, well-played games they will hang in there and make it three teams in the division with 10+ victories.

ODDS OF ME MAKING IT TO WEEK 1 WITHOUT HURTING MYSELF OR OTHERS BECAUSE OF BRETT FAVRE:

50-50 at the moment.  Come on, the man isn’t John Lennon, he isn’t Jesus.  He’s not running from the police, so what’s with the helicopters?  He’s an old-ass quarterback who can’t let go with an ego that just sucks up all this exposure.  Good luck getting rid of him now after obnoxiously lavishing him with attention.  Sheesh.