Posts Tagged tom brady

NFL WEEK 10: TRUST NO ONE

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Can we trust the Patriots to hold on to a lead anymore? Bill Belichick out-thunk himself with his 4th-and-2 call from his own 28.  The rationale is that he thought his offense had a better shot of picking up 2 yards on 4th down than his defense did of stopping Manning.  Even if they failed to convert the 4th-and-2, it would have the same result as punting, right?  That’s a stretch, and it gave the Colts the ball 29 yards from a touchdown with over 2 minutes to play. There was also a bunch of oddly-burned timeouts sprinkled in there.

 

Indy Colts.  online photo, no source available

 

Failing to convert the 4th-and-2 wasn’t really ever considered, which is in Belichick’s nature and part of what makes him the arrogant cutthroat that he is.  Maybe karma bit him in the ass on this one, and that’s bound to happen.  But if the Patriots’ defense is this unreliable to their head coach, the Pats have problems that will have implications later. 

 

For now, the New England loss caps off what was a terrible week for my record.  Discretion will be necessary from here on out.

 

Denver and Atlanta couldn’t trust backups, after each lost high-performing starters in the 2nd quarter.  When Denver QB Kyle Orton left his game vs. the R*dsk*ns with an ankle injury, he was 11-18 for 193 yards and 2 TD’s.  When Atlanta RB Michael Turner left his game vs. the Panthers with an ankle injury, he had 111 yards on 9 carries.

 

M. Turner.  online photo, no source available

 

Orton’s replacement was Chris Simms, who posted a 7.5 passer rating (as opposed to Orton’s 134.5).  Atlanta was already down counter-puncher Jerious Norwood, so something named Jason Snelling filled in, and did okay.  61 yards and a touchdown, but Atlanta fell apart after the injury and was already getting torched on defense.

 

Dallas couldn’t trust Tony Romo, whose stats aren’t great or awful, but his only INT came after a 14 play, 79-yard drive to the Green Bay 1, where he was picked off by Charles Woodson just short of the goal line to all but seal the loss.  Crappy quarterbacks throw picks in the redzone when the stakes are high and your team is still in the game (ahem…jaycutler).

 

Tony Romo.  online photo, no source available

 

Aaron Rodgers earned some trust after righting the ship against the Cowboys, and even the offensive line got in on the act, scattering 4 sacks against a good Dallas defense.  Green Bay’s own defense swarmed Romo all day, sacking him 5 times and hitting him hard.  It was a fun game to watch considering the score was 3-0 Packers going into the 4th quarter.

 

clay matthews.  online photo, no source available

 

Pittsburgh couldn’t trust their special teams, which gave up a return score for a revolting 7th straight game.  The 96-yarder in the 2nd quarter by the Bengals’ Bernard Scott was the difference in the field-goal fest, which featured virtually no offensive ball movement.  8 kicks went through either set of uprights, and 6 of them were 32 yards or longer.  Cincy’s Cedric Benson and Steeler Troy Polamalu were both knocked out of the game.

 

The Jets couldn’t trust their 4th-ranked defense to keep Jacksonville’s 21st-ranked offense from scoring a field goal to win the game.  Philly couldn’t trust it’s offense, which could only manage 23 points in San Diego despite getting 450 yards and two TD’s on 35 completions from Donovan McNabb.

 

We almost couldn’t trust New Orleans against lowly St. Louis, who fought back in the game against a banged-up Saints defense in the second half.  The Saints’ stable of running backs were able to save the day, but N.O. is hurting right now in the secondary and the Saints’ date with New England in two weeks just started looking a little tougher for Drew Brees & Company, who committed 3 turnovers today.

 

drew brees.  online photo, no source available

 

Tampa bay already didn’t trust its defense, who did set up a potential game-winning TD by picking off Chad Henne on a horrific pass deep in Dolphin territory.  But then that same defense let the same QB march almost 80 yards in just over a minute to win the game with a chip-shot field goal.  Josh Freeman turned in his second solid performance in as many starts, and has Tampa Bay feeling optimistic for the future.

 

And finally, if you can trust anything in the NFL right now, as much as it pains me in a profound and intimate way to say it, you can trust in Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings offense. It’s something that I have to come to grips with, and it might as well happen sooner rather than later.  I know they played the Lions today, and I know the final score of 27-10 isn’t even that big of a blowout, but Minnesota made it look effortless.

 

AP looked very healthy and well rested (18 carries for 133, 2 TD) after the bye week, galloping through tackles and cutting with precision.  Acceleration, burst, violence, anger.  Wait until he plays an opponent that matters.

 

adrian peterson.  online photo, no source available

 

Brett Favre made Sydney Rice look like some kind of freak combination of Randy Moss and Jerry Rice, which he isn’t, but he was against Detroit.  This game wasn’t close, ever.  Minnesota left points on the board, which is an issue, but it doesn’t matter.  This team isn’t f—ing around anymore, and Favre will have these bastards ready to play the big games.

 

The Viking pass defense will need to improve, and Antoine Winfield will likely have to be in top form to get past this New Orleans offense in the playoffs, and Jared Allen may have to show up for a game not against Green Bay (1 tackle, 0 sacks on Sunday), but this offense is serious.  Brett Favre is currently projected to finish the season with almost 3900 yards, 32 TD’s and 6 picks.  Brady and Manning might throw for more yards, but at 40, leading a team that was a mess offensively last season to a dominating regular season in 2009, Favre still has to be the favorite to win it.

 

After typing that last sentence, I am going to go drink beer, eat chicken wings, and cry, all at the same time.

 

contact email: nick.thomas@flyingpigskin.com

 

 

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AFC EAST 2009 Projections

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In 2008, the Miami Dolphins took the AFC East by storm with a 10-game turnaround from ‘07.  Led by a former rival QB who felt disrespected, a new coach in Tony Sporano and an easy schedule, the Dolphins were the comeback kids of the NFL.  But in 2009, the return of Tom Brady will keep them from consecutive division titles:

 

New England Patriots: 13-3

Miami Dolphins: 10-6

New York Jets: 7-9

Buffalo Bills: 3-13

 

THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

There isn’t much to glean from the 2008 season that is statistically relevant to this year’s Pats.  We all know the ‘08 story – Brady went down in Week 1 with a very re-watchable knee injury, and FNG Matt Cassel took over, leading the squad to an 11-5 record.  The Patriots were the first team since the 1985 Broncos to miss the postseason with 11 wins, which puts another chip on the shoulder of Napoleonic coach Bill Belichick.  Cassel was then traded to Kansas City to become the new Scott Mitchell.

 

Tom Brady.  online photo, no source available
 

 

If I can point to any negative for the Patriots, it’s that everyone has access to the tape of the 2007 Super Bowl and should know that to beat New England, you must pummel Tom Brady.  But to everyone’s dismay, the Golden-Gal will be back throwing 7-yard slants to Wes Welker all @&%#ing day until their opponents get so annoyed that they leave Randy Moss wide open – just so Brady throws it to someone else.

 

It should be noted that the Pats saw two really old centerpieces of their defense retire, LB Teddy Bruschi and safety Rodney Harrison.  I didn’t like either of them; Bruschi was too wholesome, Harrison was a cheap-shot, and both played too well for their age.  But FB Kevin Faulk will make up for them in the Pats’ Geriatric Ward: in his 14th NFL season he averaged 6.1 yards per carry and had 58 catches, and in his 15th he’ll have Brady back.  New England better make sure that Rogaine and Viagra aren’t on the Banned-Substance list.

 

Two people in bathtubs.  online photo, no source available
Rodney Harrison and Teddy Bruschi celebrate their retirement together.

 

THE MIAMI DOLPHINS

As previously stated, fate loved the Dolphins in 2008, and although it will do them no favors this year (they won’t have the AFC and NFC Wests to pick on), the Dolphins have a solid, if not almost-elite team.  Chad Pennington will continue his underrated, un-flashy performance if his running backs can continue theirs.  Last year, counter-culture icon Ricky Williams even provided clean urine for the entire season. 

 

Pennington was his typical safe, even-distribution-self with only 7 INT’s, and he led 5 different receivers to finish with 400-plus yards.  After those guys, the first 3 tailbacks on the depth chart each had more than 200 yards receiving, and the balance proved valuable late, when Miami won 9 of their last 10 games.  Pennington compiled nearly 3700 yards and finished 2nd in the NFL with a 98 Passer Rating.

 

 Chad Pennington.  online photo, no source available

But the biggest surprise was on defense: Miami went from 30th in points allowed in 2007 to 9th in 2008.  The 120-point improvement on defense is almost as jaw-dropping as winning 10 more games. 

 

One guy to keep an eye on is tailback Lex Hilliard, a 2008 practice-squader from Montana.  He’s run very well in the preseason, and is bigger than both Williams and Brown at 5-11, 240.  Starting FB Lousaka Polite only has 5 pounds on him, so look for some solid production out of the kid from Kalispell if anyone gets hurt or visits Jamaica during the Bye week. 

 

 Ricky Williams.  online photo, no source available

 

THE NEW YORK JETS

It’s reasonable for one to expect a bigger hangover from the Brett Favre experiment, and perhaps I’m giving new coach Rex Ryan and his big-name rookies too much credit.  I’ve got them winning tough-ish road games in Houston and Tampa, which could be a stretch for Mark Sanchez. 

 

With Laveranues Coles leaving for Cincinnati, New York is thin at receiver.  Hence their flirtation with trading for headcase Brandon Marshall – Jerricho Cotchery is reliable, but Sanchez could use a bigger target.  Either way, he’ll lean on runners Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, with rookie Shonn Greene providing injury insurance.  But Sanchez strikes most observers as competent, and I think 7-9 is possible even for a team performing a major overhaul.

 

Mark Sanchez.  online photo, no source available.   

Vincent Chase Mark Sanchez, USC.


Rex Ryan wisely brought LB Bart Scott along from Baltimore to help on defense, and if I may get scientific for a moment, Ryan also brings impressive genetics.  He and his father Buddy Ryan have overseen some of the best defenses on record:  Buddy with the late-70’s Vikings and 1985 Bears, and Rex with the Ravens of late.  Rex’s little brother Rob also won a couple rings coaching the linebackers in New England from 2000-2003.  That’s a total of 4 NFL Championships, making the Ryan clan more prolific than the reigning NFL royalty, the Manning family.  Although I think Archie, Peyton and Eli have typically played much better with other kids than Rex and Rob’s old man ever did.

 

 

THE BUFFALO BILLS

The tougher schedule will treat no team worse than Buffalo, and it’s only a matter of time before Terrell Owens comes unglued.  Coach Dick Jauron isn’t off to a great start either, apparently deeming it wise to pink-slip offensive coordinator Turk Schonert about 10 days before the opener.  On defense, the Bills ranked 21st in 2008, and have done virtually nothing to fix it except draft DE Aaron Maybin, who held out through all of training camp and is currently listed 3rd on the depth chart.

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Trent Edwards.  online photo, no source available

 

Ultimately, yawn-inducing QB Trent Edwards won’t be able to pacify both T.O and 2nd-fiddle (but probably better) WR Lee Evans, which will lead to the clichéd turmoil that has followed Owens everywhere he’s played.  The nation’s collective eyes will roll when the media tries to get us all to gasp at T.O.’s predictable cry-babying, so maybe we should find some other divisive butthole to demonize in 2009.  

 

Jay Cutler, your table is ready.

 

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Fun With QB Stats

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A glance around the top 32 QB ratings from 2008 reveals some interesting facts, and here are the ones that I was able to spin into shaky conclusions before I ran out of ideas:

 

Philip Rivers had the top rating the league last year?? Great, now I’m going to have to give him begrudging respect, which I despise doing as much as I despise Rivers himself.  34 TD’s, 11 INT’s, 4000+ yards.  Can’t really argue with that too much.  What I can say in an effort to argue is that A.) Darren Sproles represents 5 of those TD’s, turning roughly a sixth of his 29 catches into scores.  I’m betting most of those were dumpoffs with which Sproles made plays himself.  Plus, we all know QB Ratings are garbage.  The rankings will tell you that the average performance of Shaun Hill and Seneca Wallace combined would be better than that of Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, Brett Favre, Kerry Collins and Ben Roethlisberger. 

Phil Rivers.  oline photo, no source available

 

Matt Cassel led the league in sacks taken?? Yep, 47 times last year he got dropped holding onto the ball.  Where was the so-called great protection I always complain about Tom Brady getting?  Brady got sacked a fraction of the times the previous year, 21 total in 2007.  So either the Pats’ line got decimated by injuries in 2008 (which I don’t remember and I’m too lazy to look up and see), or Cassel had problems holding onto the ball too long and didn’t fully grasp all of the intricacies of the offense, which is both likely and excusable for a backup who played very well.

Matt Cassel.  online photo, no soruce available 

Drew Brees and Jay Cutler threw the ball a lot in 08.  While neither quite got in the ballpark of the record 691 attempts set by Drew Bledsoe in 1994, Brees’ 635 and Cutler’s 616 are the only two over 600 attempts.  Donovan McNabb threw 571 times, and I remember watching an Eagles game late last year and not even seeing them run the ball at all.  I wonder how Brees and Cutler got through the season without their tendons popping loose. 

Drew Brees.  online photo, no source available
 

Speaking of Jay Cutler, there isn’t anyone more happy that Brett Favre is back than the Bears’ new quarterback.  That’s because Favre’s the only guy who would likely throw more picks than Cutler will.  Cutler had 18, and Favre had 22 in ‘08.  Vikings fans in support of Favre (and I think that’s the majority of them now) will ignore the fact that Favre led the league over Cutler while throwing almost a hundred fewer attempts.  And that Favre had a running game that Cutler would have killed for. 

 

The Jets had Thomas Jones and Leon Washington run for over 2000 yards and 20 TD’s.  Do you know who Denver’s leading rusher was last season?  Me neither – it was something named Peyton Hillis, who charged his way to 343 yards and 5 TD’s.  Cutler himself was close to that, running for 200 yards on his own two feet.  Matt Forte should take more than a little pressure off of Cutler, hopefully bringing that INT total down a couple notches. 

 

Peyton Hillis.  Online photo, no source available
Don’t recognize this guy? Me either.

 
 

What is possibly more impressive about both Brees and Cutler is that despite leading the league in attempts, they were each sacked less than once a game – Cutler with 11 and Brees with 13.  Both are underrated mobility-wise, and both have quick releases.  Ironically, Brees may provide the model that the Bears hope to use with Cutler, at least in part:  despite Brees throwing for over 5,000 yards, he had no 1,000-yard receiver.  Lance Moore came the closest at 928.  To be fair, New Orleans had two other receivers besides Moore with yardage in the 700’s, which is pretty damn good for 2nd and 3rd WR’s. 

 

But Cutler and Favre are the new guys in their division, and both will be playing with pretty good run games.  When you combine receptions and carries into total touches for the 2008 season, Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson aren’t that far off, and Forte actually scored 12 TD’s to AP’s 10.  What’s the major difference between the two that could help Chicago and hurt Minnesota?  Peterson’s 9 fumbles with 4 lost to Matt Forte’s 1 fumble, 1 lost.  Can you say ‘Turnover Ratio’?  

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Adrian Peterson.  Online photo, no source available

Sorry, I just couldn’t go too long without taking cheap shots at the Purple Jesus.

 

 

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