Okay, so I went from 15-1 in Week 1 to 8-8 in Week 2. Week 3 doesn’t look to be much easier; almost every conclusion drawn comes strictly from opponents played – there are no comprehensive answers through 2 weeks of the season. But I vow to redeem myself. There are a couple of easy games, so let’s start there.
GIMMIE No. 1 – CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE: What’s to think about? Joe Flacco has a 96.1 rating with 5 touchdowns through 2 games. Brady Quinn has a 66.9 rating with 1 TD. With Baltimore playing at home, there needs to be no other reason to pick the Ravens. Baltimore, 27-12.
GIMMIE No. 2 – GREEN BAY at ST. LOUIS: Green Bay losing to Cincinnati was unfathomable. But even after allowing 5 sacks to DE Antwan Odom (6 sacks overall), and allowing Cedric Benson 144 yards (including three 12 yard rushes on the Bengals’ opening drive), Green Bay came close to winning. The Pack recovered an onside kick, drove to the Cincy 10-yard line, then attempted a fake snap when a false start penalty ended the game with less than 10 seconds left. Defensive snafus for GB included allowing a 3rd and 34 to be converted on a screen pass, and playing LB Nick Barnett a total of 0 snaps in the 4th quarter. Those same mistakes won’t be made; Packers, 21-10.
WEEK 3 TOILET BOWL: WASHINGTON at DETROIT: It’s time. Detroit must, at some point, awaken from their slumber and beat an NFL team. The R*dsk*ns are low on karma after 6th round rookie Robert Henson insulted working class fans for booing his garbage football team via Twitter. The Lions, on the other hand, have exerted more effort in losing 2 games than the R*dsk*ns did in beating 78th rated St. Louis. Lions fans rejoice: your seasons of discontent mercifully come to a close this Sunday. Lions 17, D.C. Football Franchise 13.
SAN FRANCISCO at MINNESOTA: In many ways these two teams are mirror images of each other: both have very, very good running backs, both have mediocre quarterbacks, both have pass protection issues, and both precariously lead their divisions. Both of these teams will see their first significant challenges in terms of quality opponents. SF owns the first real linebacker that the Vikings have faced in Patrick Willis. Minnesota provides the first real offensive threat in Adrian Peterson that coach Mike Singletary has had to deal with. Two major differences – rushing defense, with the 49ers 3rd overall and MN 15th; and health. Vikings LB E.J. Henderson and the Purple Jebus are both hampered with back injuries to varying degrees. I want to pick San Francisco, so I will. San Fran, 24-21.
ATLANTA at NEW ENGLAND: Atlanta rides into Foxboro high as a kite and New England enters the game looking like Eyore from Winnie the Pooh. ATL QB Matt Ryan makes his homecoming leading a team 9th in points scored and 18th in yards. In contrast, Tom Terrific leads the team that is 9th in yards, but 23rd in points. And although Brady took no sacks versus the Jets in Week 2, he was hassled to the tune of 7 hits and countless hurries, forcing him into key incompletions and poor decision-making. Alas, the Pats will remind everyone that they are still a very formidable opponent. New England 26, Falcons 19.
TENNESSEE at NY JETS: Toughest choice of the week for me, the Jets enter a home game ranked 1st overall in total defense while the Titans gave up 34 points to the Houston Texans last week. Tennessee sports the 32nd ranked pass defense so far, after allowing Matt Schaub to throw 4 TDs and no picks in Week 2. The most telling stat? The next touchdown the New York Jets allow on defense will be their first. It is hard for me to pick against Tennessee because of their 2008 rep, but I will, even though it seems too trendy and easy: Jets 17, Titans 14.
KANSAS CITY at PHILADELPHIA: Philly QB Kevin Kolb is likely to get his 2nd start of the season against a winless Chiefs team. Never mind who the Eagles played last week, it’s irrelevant. All you need to know is that Kansas City, despite dominating total yards (409-166), time of possession (38:39 to 21:21), and first downs (25-11), still lost to the Raiders at home, 13-10. Not helping KC was going 0-2 in the red zone, 9 flags for 70 yards, and 2 turnovers to Oakland’s zero. Losing to the Raiders at home means you don’t beat Philly in Philly. Eagles, 20-9.
NY GIANTS at TAMPA BAY: I am ready to pick the Giants based solely on their heroic spoiling of Dallas’ new-stadium opener. 110,000 people went home very unhappy deep in the heart of Texas. I tried to find some stat that says the Bucs will challenge, but they won’t. This one comes down to sheer offensive star power: Mario Manningham and Steve Smith combined for 20 catches and 284 yards against the Cowboys. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, only got 18 carries for 57 yards out of its supposed talent-laden RB corps. Don’t over think this one. Giants win, 34-13.
JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON: Normally division games would lead one to the conclusion that it will be a mildly interesting and scrappy contest. And while this may turn out to actually be the case, I can’t find the energy to dig up relevant stats for either of these teams. I do know that Houston passed for 4 touchdowns on Tennessee last week and that Jacksonville has lost 2 close games to quality opponents. My intuition says that Jacksonville is better than they’re viewed and that Houston is worse. Jacksonville in a road upset: 22-18.
NEW ORLEANS at BUFFALO: I will not pick against the Saints again this season until they let me down. Let the record show that I have learned my lesson – New Orleans has scored 12 TDs in 2 games, and will certainly not be cowed by Dick Jauron’s 28th ranked defense. Although Buffalo ranks 6th in scoring to the Saints first, the disparity in points is cannot be ignored (93-57). Saints win easy, 37-20.
CHICAGO at SEATTLE: Seattle WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh has chosen this week to open his mouth. Sayeth Housh: “Man, the Bears ain’t even holler at me…so I’m going to show [them] Sunday.” Interesting for a player who currently ranks 3rd on his team in receptions and with zero TDs – despite being a handsomely-paid free-agent. He is currently being outpaced by the luminescent 2nd year TE John Carlson. On top of that, QB Matt Hasselbeck, among others, is not likely to play with a fractured rib. Injured Seahawks roll-call: OT Sean Locklear, CB Josh Wilson, OT Walter Jones, WR Deion Branch, and MLB Lofa Tatupu. Chicago RB Matt Forte is desperate for a statistically relevant performance – his mouth will water at a Seattle defense who gave up 209 yards to Frank Gore in Week 2. I don’t even need to mention that the Bears are coming off an emotional, confidence-lifting defeat of the NFL Champs. Bears 28, Seahawks 12.
MIAMI at SAN DIEGO: I would love to pick a team I like (Miami) over a team I don’t like (the Chargers), but I am not going to. It’s possible the Dolphins’ offense will simply be gassed after being on the field for 45:07 on Monday night. While the defense will be fresh, San Diego’s offense will be pressured to perform. Miami’s brand of throwback, low-risk offensive production ain’t gonna fly against the speedy Chargers defense. As much as I don’t like it, SD 23, Dolphins 16.
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI: Pittsburgh goes on the road for the 2nd week in a row against a team that it is supposed to beat – Steelers fans can rejoice in Chicago mustering a measly 44 yards rushing at home in the rain, but should be weary of how drunken loser Cedric Benson gashed the 3-4 defense of Green Bay for 144 yards. But Pittsburgh isn’t about to lose a division game against an inferior opponent regardless of who that opponent beat last week. Cincy still sucks and will show it. Steelers, 24-13.
WEEK 3 TOILET BOWL (II) – DENVER at OAKLAND: Denver once again qualifies for flushable status, drawing the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are without the supposedly important OG Robert Gallery with a broken leg and won’t be able to win with another 107 yard performance from QB JaMarcus Russell, who languishes with a 46.6 QB rating on the season. Kyle Orton isn’t Superman, but he is good enough to beat Oakland. Sheriff McDaniels 16, Sheriff Al Davis 10. Denver becomes the NFL’s crappiest 3-0 team.
INDIANAPOLIS at ARIZONA: Many “insiders” are going to pick the Cardinals in this game, and will show their foolishness. Don’t listen. The Colts won last week despite only having the ball for a little more than 14 minutes. Peyton Manning proved he can beat you if you blitz him, and also if you don’t. Arizona is not likely to produce an adequate defensive scheme with which to defeat the elder Manning brother. My first inclination is to predict a shootout, but I am quickly stifled by the Colt’s #1 pass defense ranking (139 yards per game); AZ ranks 18th. Indy wins easy, 31-17.
MONDAY NIGHT
CAROLINA at DALLAS: Dallas again takes the field in their spanking new stadium, but this week they face an opponent seemingly determined to squander virtually every opportunity presented to them. Although PWT QB Jake DelHomme proved he wasn’t completely worthless against Atlanta in Week 2, he still qualifies for JaMarcus Russell status, quagmiring along with a 45.3 QB rating (actually, JaMarcus Russell qualifies for Jake DelHomme status). Don’t look for that to improve against a Dallas team who needs a win worse than anybody in the NFL. Yes, Tony Romo was GARBAGE in the Cowboys’ home debut, throwing for 127 yards and 3 INTs. But Marion Barber made it respectable, averaging 7 yards per carry, along with Felix Jones’ 13.7 yards per carry. Dallas held the formidable Giant’s rushing attack to 97 yards while running for 251 of their own. Cowboys 24, Panthers 10. (Tony Romo has to work off a $1,300,000,000 new- stadium debt, as he is now dating Jerry Jones instead of Jessica Simpson).
